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Hope and Fear in Sudan Two Years After Protests Erupted

Sudanese protesters from the city of Atbara, the cradle of Sudan's revolution, arrive in the capital Khartoum to celebrate the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 | AFP
Sudanese protesters from the city of Atbara, the cradle of Sudan's revolution, arrive in the capital Khartoum to celebrate the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 | AFP
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Hope and Fear in Sudan Two Years After Protests Erupted

Sudanese protesters from the city of Atbara, the cradle of Sudan's revolution, arrive in the capital Khartoum to celebrate the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 | AFP
Sudanese protesters from the city of Atbara, the cradle of Sudan's revolution, arrive in the capital Khartoum to celebrate the downfall of dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 | AFP

Sudan has experienced a whirlwind of change since its popular revolution kicked off two years ago, bringing an end to the three-decade reign of strongman Omar al-Bashir.

But experts warn the country is now at a critical juncture as tensions have flared between the military and civilian leaders who share power in a fragile transitional government.

"A rupture between civilians and the military is a constant risk," said Rebecca Hamilton, associate professor at American University's Washington College of Law, urging a "surge" of international support for the civilian side.

Former protest activists like 28-year-old Randa Ahmad are watching events with fear, but refuse to give up hope.

"Two years after the start of the revolution we are of course disappointed," she told AFP.

"We took to the streets because we wanted reform of an economy that was strangling us, and for the regime's criminals to face justice. This is still not the case and I'm suffering as a result."

But the pace of change has, in some respects, been dizzying since the youth-led movement started protesting on December 19, 2018 for greater freedoms and an end to Sudan's international isolation.

Bashir was ousted by the army in April 2019, and the new authorities have since put him on trial over the Islamist-backed coup that first brought him to power.

They have cooperated with the International Criminal Court, which wants to try him on charges of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity over the conflict in the western region of Darfur.

The transitional government -- established in August 2019, four months after Bashir was deposed -- has struck peace deals with rebel groups.

It has also, under US pressure, agreed in principle to diplomatically recognize long-time enemy Israel.

And the US on Monday removed Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism, a designation dating from the times when Bashir hosted Osama Bin Laden and other militants.

- 'Lack of trust' -

The delisting should help bring badly-needed foreign aid, debt relief, and investment to one of the world's poorest countries.

But at the same time, an economic crisis with skyrocketing inflation, exacerbated by the global coronavirus pandemic, is bringing yet more pain to the country of over 40 million.

The protests that began two years ago, sparked by high bread prices, were initially centered in the city of Atbara, around 300 kilometers (190 miles) northeast of Khartoum.

Long a hotbed of labor activism, Atbara is where previous revolts started in 1964 and 1985, respectively bringing down dictators Ibrahim Abboud and Jaafar Nimeiri.

Ahmad Khadra, one of the leaders of the Forces for Freedom and Change, the driving force behind the revolution, bemoaned the shortcomings since 2018.

But he is not giving up hope.

"It's true the government structure is not complete ... and the establishment of peace with the guerrilla movements in Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile is slow," he said.

"But it is moving forward anyway and the economy will improve with the end of the ban" by Washington.

Khadra said his greatest concern was discord between the cabinet led by Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and the military, headed by army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

"There is a lack of real trust which hinders the implementation of the agreement between them," he said.

- 'We will overcome' -

Hamdok this week criticised the security sector's "unacceptable" control over a vast array of companies in gold, rubber, flour, and other key sectors.

Burhan, who also chairs the Sovereign Council, Sudan's highest executive body, earlier accused the transitional institutions of deepening the people's "suffering".

"A year after its creation, I say that the transitional council has failed to respond to the aspirations of the people and of the revolution," the general charged.

The military, he pledged, would "remain the first force in defending the people, protect their achievements and work to protect the glorious revolution".

"Sudan is at a critical juncture," Rosemary DiCarlo, under-secretary-general for political and peace-building affairs, told a recent UN Security Council briefing, urging stepped-up support for the country.

"It can move forward decisively in its transition. But that process can still be derailed by the many challenges it faces."

Eric Reeves, a researcher at the Rift Valley Institute, fears a government rupture or even a coup is "an increasingly likely outcome".

The risk would increase early next year, he said, "as we approach the date on which the civilians on the Sovereign Council take over the chairmanship.

"For the interim, the military will continue to exert or claim more and more executive power."

Randa Ahmad, the activist, said she held on to the hope that change for the better is irreversible.

"Despite everything, I believe in the success of our revolution," she said. "We will overcome all the difficulties and we will have a democratically elected civilian government."

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10 Years after Europe's Migration Crisis, the Fallout Reverberates in Greece and Beyond

File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
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10 Years after Europe's Migration Crisis, the Fallout Reverberates in Greece and Beyond

File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)
File photo: Migrants of African origin trying to flee to Europe are crammed on board of a small boat, as Tunisian coast guards prepare to transfer them onto their vessel, at sea between Tunisia and Italy, on August 10, 2023. (Photo by FETHI BELAID / AFP)

Fleeing Iran with her husband and toddler, Amena Namjoyan reached a rocky beach of this eastern Greek island along with hundreds of thousands of others. For months, their arrival overwhelmed Lesbos. Boats fell apart, fishermen dove to save people from drowning, and local grandmothers bottle-fed newly arrived babies.

Namjoyan spent months in an overcrowded camp. She learned Greek. She struggled with illness and depression as her marriage collapsed. She tried to make a fresh start in Germany but eventually returned to Lesbos, the island that first embraced her. Today, she works at a restaurant, preparing Iranian dishes that locals devour, even if they struggle to pronounce the names. Her second child tells her, “‘I’m Greek.’”

“Greece is close to my culture, and I feel good here,” Namjoyan said. “I am proud of myself.”

In 2015, more than 1 million migrants and refugees arrived in Europe — the majority by sea, landing in Lesbos, where the north shore is just 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Türkiye. The influx of men, women and children fleeing war and poverty sparked a humanitarian crisis that shook the European Union to its core. A decade later, the fallout still reverberates on the island and beyond.

For many, Greece was a place of transit. They continued on to northern and western Europe. Many who applied for asylum were granted international protection; thousands became European citizens. Countless more were rejected, languishing for years in migrant camps or living in the streets. Some returned to their home countries. Others were kicked out of the European Union.

For Namjoyan, Lesbos is a welcoming place — many islanders share a refugee ancestry, and it helps that she speaks their language. But migration policy in Greece, like much of Europe, has shifted toward deterrence in the decade since the crisis. Far fewer people are arriving illegally. Officials and politicians have maintained that strong borders are needed. Critics say enforcement has gone too far and violates fundamental EU rights and values.

“Migration is now at the top of the political agenda, which it didn’t use to be before 2015,” said Camille Le Coz Director of the Migration Policy Institute Europe, noting changing EU alliances. “We are seeing a shift toward the right of the political spectrum.”

A humanitarian crisis turned into a political one

In 2015, boat after boat crowded with refugees crashed onto the doorstep of Elpiniki Laoumi, who runs a fish tavern across from a Lesbos beach. She fed them, gave them water, made meals for aid organizations.

“You would look at them and think of them as your own children," said Laoumi, whose tavern walls today are decorated with thank-you notes.

From 2015 to 2016, the peak of the migration crisis, more than 1 million people entered Europe through Greece alone. The immediate humanitarian crisis — to feed, shelter and care for so many people at once — grew into a long-term political one.

Greece was reeling from a crippling economic crisis. The influx added to anger against established political parties, fueling the rise of once-fringe populist forces.

EU nations fought over sharing responsibility for asylum seekers. The bloc’s unity cracked as some member states flatly refused to take migrants. Anti-migration voices calling for closed borders became louder.

Today, illegal migration is down across Europe While illegal migration to Greece has fluctuated, numbers are nowhere near 2015-16 figures, according to the International Organization for Migration. Smugglers adapted to heightened surveillance, shifting to more dangerous routes.

Overall, irregular EU border crossings decreased by nearly 40% last year and continue to fall, according to EU border and coast guard agency Frontex.

That hasn’t stopped politicians from focusing on — and sometimes fearmongering over — migration. This month, the Dutch government collapsed after a populist far-right lawmaker withdrew his party’s ministers over migration policy.

In Greece, the new far-right migration minister has threatened rejected asylum seekers with jail time.

A few miles from where Namjoyan now lives, in a forest of pine and olive trees, is a new EU-funded migrant center. It's one of the largest in Greece and can house up to 5,000 people.

Greek officials denied an Associated Press request to visit. Its opening is blocked, for now, by court challenges.

Some locals say the remote location seems deliberate — to keep migrants out of sight and out of mind.

“We don’t believe such massive facilities are needed here. And the location is the worst possible – deep inside a forest,” said Panagiotis Christofas, mayor of Lesbos’ capital, Mytilene. “We’re against it, and I believe that’s the prevailing sentiment in our community.”

A focus on border security

For most of Europe, migration efforts focus on border security and surveillance.

The European Commission this year greenlighted the creation of “return” hubs — a euphemism for deportation centers — for rejected asylum seekers. Italy has sent unwanted migrants to its centers in Albania, even as that faces legal challenges.

Governments have resumed building walls and boosting surveillance in ways unseen since the Cold War.

In 2015, Frontex was a small administrative office in Warsaw. Now, it's the EU's biggest agency, with 10,000 armed border guards, helicopters, drones and an annual budget of over 1 billion euros.

On other issues of migration — reception, asylum and integration, for example — EU nations are largely divided.

The legacy of Lesbos

Last year, EU nations approved a migration and asylum pact laying out common rules for the bloc's 27 countries on screening, asylum, detention and deportation of people trying to enter without authorization, among other things.

“The Lesbos crisis of 2015 was, in a way, the birth certificate of the European migration and asylum policy,” Margaritis Schinas, a former European Commission vice president and a chief pact architect, told AP.

He said that after years of fruitless negotiations, he's proud of the landmark compromise.

“We didn’t have a system,” Schinas said. “Europe’s gates had been crashed."

The deal, endorsed by the United Nations refugee agency, takes effect next year. Critics say it made concessions to hardliners. Human rights organizations say it will increase detention and erode the right to seek asylum.

Some organizations also criticize the “externalization” of EU border management — agreements with countries across the Mediterranean to aggressively patrol their coasts and hold migrants back in exchange for financial assistance.

The deals have expanded, from Türkiye to the Middle East and across Africa. Human rights groups say autocratic governments are pocketing billions and often subject the displaced to appalling conditions.

Lesbos still sees some migrants arrive Lesbos' 80,000 residents look back at the 2015 crisis with mixed feelings.

Fisherman Stratos Valamios saved some children. Others drowned just beyond his reach, their bodies still warm as he carried them to shore.

“What’s changed from back then to now, 10 years on? Nothing,” he said. “What I feel is anger — that such things can happen, that babies can drown.”

Those who died crossing to Lesbos are buried in two cemeteries, their graves marked as “unknown.”

Tiny shoes and empty juice boxes with faded Turkish labels can still be found on the northern coast. So can black doughnut-shaped inner tubes, given by smugglers as crude life preservers for children. At Moria, a refugee camp destroyed by fire in 2020, children’s drawings remain on gutted building walls.

Migrants still arrive, and sometimes die, on these shores. Lesbos began to adapt to a quieter, more measured flow of newcomers.

Efi Latsoudi, who runs a network helping migrants learn Greek and find jobs, hopes Lesbos’ tradition of helping outsiders in need will outlast national policies.

“The way things are developing, it’s not friendly for newcomers to integrate into Greek society,” Latsoudi said. "We need to do something. ... I believe there is hope.”