Security, Water and Economy…3 Obstacles in Iraqi-Turkish Relations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2020. (Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office / Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2020. (Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office / Reuters)
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Security, Water and Economy…3 Obstacles in Iraqi-Turkish Relations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2020. (Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office / Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2020. (Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office / Reuters)

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi's one-day visit to Turkey is likely to spark a long debate within Iraqi circles, whether on the political level or over social media.

Iraqi-Turkish relations have been marred with ambiguity for decades for various reasons. Major contentious concerns include the water issue that dates back to the 1930s and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party since the mid-1980s.

The Turkish-Iraqi trade balance, which annually amounts to about $12 billion, surpasses the Iraqi trade balance with Iran. However, Turkey wants to ignore complex issues such as water and terrorism to focus on one aspect of the relationship with Baghdad: Increasing the volume of trade exchange to $17 billion.

Iran, for its part, is working at the same pace, seeking to compete with Turkey economically inside Iraq at a time when Ankara cannot compete with Tehran politically.

However, both Iran and Turkey are seeing Kadhimi's move in other directions, by strengthening his relations with the Arab region, which could leave negative effects on their status in the Iraqi market.

The relationship that has developed between Iraq and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, especially after the signing of a series of agreements and MOUs, as well as the opening of the Arar border crossing, would open new horizons for Iraq and would ease the pressure exerted by its two main neighbors.

This new reality has made Iran and Turkey deal with Iraq from a different angle. Despite the presence of Iranian-backed factions in the country, Tehran is keen to deal with Kadhimi’s government away from those.

Turkey, for its part, is trying to reassure Iraq about the water issue, but does not show flexibility towards the PKK.

In this context, Professor of Media at the Iraqi University, Dr. Fadel Al-Badrani, said that Kadhimi’s visit discussed eight main topics related to security, economy, investment, energy, water, railways, visas, and frozen funds.

But he added that three main obstacles still control the course of Baghdad’s relations with Ankara: security, water and economy.

He explained that the visit came as both countries are facing severe economic crises, the decline of their local currencies, as well as the problem of the PKK, which embarrasses Baghdad and harms Ankara.

Badrani added: “Baghdad is also concerned about water shares that are controlled by Turkey."

"It tries to resolve the matter diplomatically and to search for trade exchange opportunities that alleviate the financial crisis.”



Hezbollah Sends Mixed Signals on Its Weapons

Hezbollah fighters stand before rocket launchers during military drill in Southern Lebanon, May 2023 (AP)
Hezbollah fighters stand before rocket launchers during military drill in Southern Lebanon, May 2023 (AP)
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Hezbollah Sends Mixed Signals on Its Weapons

Hezbollah fighters stand before rocket launchers during military drill in Southern Lebanon, May 2023 (AP)
Hezbollah fighters stand before rocket launchers during military drill in Southern Lebanon, May 2023 (AP)

Hezbollah has sent conflicting signals about its stance on a US proposal delivered by American envoy Tom Barrack during his visit to Beirut two weeks ago. Barrack is expected to return early next week to seek official responses during meetings with top Lebanese officials — including President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

The US proposal reportedly calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament and for exclusive control of weapons to rest with the Lebanese state — a longstanding demand by Washington and its allies.

While senior Hezbollah officials, including MP Hussein Hajj Hassan, have said the group remains “resolute, composed and clear in its options” in the face of growing pressure, its parliamentary bloc, Loyalty to the Resistance, insisted that any talk about disarmament must follow an Israeli pullout from occupied Lebanese territory.

In a statement after its regular meeting chaired by MP Mohammad Raad, the bloc emphasized the need for a firm and sovereign Lebanese stance, stressing that Beirut had “fully adhered” to the ceasefire terms, while accusing Israel of repeatedly violating them.

“Lebanon remains committed to its national and sovereign rights, despite all the pressure, collusion and blatant bias shown by some major powers in favor of the Zionist enemy,” the statement read.

The bloc underscored that all discussions about national security strategy and stability must be rooted in a “framework of sovereignty,” and said the logical starting point is Israel’s withdrawal from occupied areas and its full compliance with the ceasefire.

Hezbollah has also begun a major strategic review in the aftermath of its destructive war with Israel, exploring ways to scale back its role as an armed group without fully relinquishing its weapons, three sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters.

The review comes amid increasing doubts over the level of support the group can expect from its main backer, Iran, which is itself emerging from a fierce conflict with Israel, according to a senior Lebanese official and a regional security source.

A senior Hezbollah figure with knowledge of the group’s internal deliberations said secret discussions are underway over its next steps.

The official, who requested anonymity, said small committees have been holding in-person and remote meetings to examine Hezbollah’s leadership structure, political role, social outreach, development work, and weapons arsenal.

According to the official and two other sources briefed on the talks, Hezbollah has concluded that the large weapons stockpile it amassed to deter Israel has now become a liability.

“Hezbollah had an excess of power, and all that power has become a curse,” the official said. “The group is not suicidal.”

Following the dismantling of most of its arsenal south of the Litani River - in line with previous agreements - Hezbollah is now considering handing over some of its heavy weapons from other parts of Lebanon, particularly drones and long-range missiles viewed as Israel’s top concern.

However, the sources said any such move would depend on Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and a halt to its military operations. Hezbollah has no intention of giving up its entire arsenal, they stressed. The group is expected to retain light arms and anti-tank missiles, which it views as a necessary deterrent against future attacks.

Amid these discussions, Hezbollah lawmakers have continued to defend the group’s armed status. MP Hussein Jishi, a member of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, said it was “an illusion” for the Lebanese state to rely solely on diplomacy and international relations to reclaim occupied land.

“Seven months have passed since the ceasefire, and none of those bets have yielded any results,” he said. “Clinging to the resistance remains the only effective, national, human and moral choice to defend the country and preserve dignity.”

A European official familiar with Western intelligence assessments told Reuters that Hezbollah is engaged in extensive internal discussions about its future, but so far with no definitive outcome. The official described the group’s armed status as “part of its identity,” making it difficult to evolve into a purely political party.

Around a dozen sources with insight into Hezbollah’s thinking said the group is intent on keeping part of its arsenal not only due to threats from Israel but also out of concern that Sunni militants in neighboring Syria could exploit any security vacuum to launch attacks on eastern Lebanon - a stronghold of the Shi’ite group.