Security, Water and Economy…3 Obstacles in Iraqi-Turkish Relations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2020. (Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office / Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2020. (Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office / Reuters)
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Security, Water and Economy…3 Obstacles in Iraqi-Turkish Relations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2020. (Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office / Reuters)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Ankara, Turkey, December 17, 2020. (Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Press Office / Reuters)

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi's one-day visit to Turkey is likely to spark a long debate within Iraqi circles, whether on the political level or over social media.

Iraqi-Turkish relations have been marred with ambiguity for decades for various reasons. Major contentious concerns include the water issue that dates back to the 1930s and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party since the mid-1980s.

The Turkish-Iraqi trade balance, which annually amounts to about $12 billion, surpasses the Iraqi trade balance with Iran. However, Turkey wants to ignore complex issues such as water and terrorism to focus on one aspect of the relationship with Baghdad: Increasing the volume of trade exchange to $17 billion.

Iran, for its part, is working at the same pace, seeking to compete with Turkey economically inside Iraq at a time when Ankara cannot compete with Tehran politically.

However, both Iran and Turkey are seeing Kadhimi's move in other directions, by strengthening his relations with the Arab region, which could leave negative effects on their status in the Iraqi market.

The relationship that has developed between Iraq and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, especially after the signing of a series of agreements and MOUs, as well as the opening of the Arar border crossing, would open new horizons for Iraq and would ease the pressure exerted by its two main neighbors.

This new reality has made Iran and Turkey deal with Iraq from a different angle. Despite the presence of Iranian-backed factions in the country, Tehran is keen to deal with Kadhimi’s government away from those.

Turkey, for its part, is trying to reassure Iraq about the water issue, but does not show flexibility towards the PKK.

In this context, Professor of Media at the Iraqi University, Dr. Fadel Al-Badrani, said that Kadhimi’s visit discussed eight main topics related to security, economy, investment, energy, water, railways, visas, and frozen funds.

But he added that three main obstacles still control the course of Baghdad’s relations with Ankara: security, water and economy.

He explained that the visit came as both countries are facing severe economic crises, the decline of their local currencies, as well as the problem of the PKK, which embarrasses Baghdad and harms Ankara.

Badrani added: “Baghdad is also concerned about water shares that are controlled by Turkey."

"It tries to resolve the matter diplomatically and to search for trade exchange opportunities that alleviate the financial crisis.”



Syria Reportedly Believed it Had Green Light from US, Israel to Deploy Troops to Sweida

Black smoke rises above buildings in southern Syria's city of Sweida on July 19, 2025. (Photo by Shadi AL-DUBAISI / AFP)
Black smoke rises above buildings in southern Syria's city of Sweida on July 19, 2025. (Photo by Shadi AL-DUBAISI / AFP)
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Syria Reportedly Believed it Had Green Light from US, Israel to Deploy Troops to Sweida

Black smoke rises above buildings in southern Syria's city of Sweida on July 19, 2025. (Photo by Shadi AL-DUBAISI / AFP)
Black smoke rises above buildings in southern Syria's city of Sweida on July 19, 2025. (Photo by Shadi AL-DUBAISI / AFP)

Syria's government misread how Israel would respond to its troops deploying to the country's south this week, encouraged by US messaging that Syria should be governed as a centralized state, eight sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Israel carried out strikes on Syrian troops and on Damascus on Wednesday in an escalation that took the leadership by surprise, the sources said, after government forces were accused of killing scores of people in the Druze city of Sweida.

Damascus believed it had a green light from both the US and Israel to dispatch its forces south despite months of Israeli warnings not to do so, according to the sources, which include Syrian political and military officials, two diplomats, and regional security sources.

That understanding was based on public and private comments from US special envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack, as well as on nascent security talks with Israel, the sources said. Barrack has called for Syria to be centrally administered as "one country" without autonomous zones.

Syria's understanding of US and Israeli messages regarding its troop deployment to the south has not been previously reported.

A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on private diplomatic discussions but said the United States supported the territorial unity of Syria.

"The Syrian state has an obligation to protect all Syrians, including minority groups," the spokesperson said, urging the Syrian government to hold perpetrators of violence accountable.

In response to Reuters questions, a senior official from Syria's ministry of foreign affairs denied that Barrack's comments had influenced the decision to deploy troops, which was made based on "purely national considerations" and with the aim of "stopping the bloodshed, protecting civilians and preventing the escalation of civil conflict.”

Damascus sent troops and tanks to Sweida province on Monday to quell fighting between Bedouin tribes and armed factions within the Druze community.

Syrian forces entering the city came under fire from Druze fighters, according to Syrian sources.

Subsequent violence attributed to Syrian troops triggered Israeli strikes on Syrian security forces, the defense ministry in Damascus and the environs of the presidential palace.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel intervened to block Syrian troops from entering southern Syria - which Israel has publicly said should be a demilitarized zone - and to uphold a longstanding commitment to protect the Druze.

Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa has vowed to hold accountable those responsible for violations against the Druze. He blamed "outlaw groups" seeking to inflame tensions for any crimes against civilians and did not say whether government forces were involved.

The US and others quickly intervened to secure a ceasefire by Wednesday evening. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the flare-up as a "misunderstanding" between Israel and Syria.

A Syrian and a Western source familiar with the matter said Damascus believed that talks with Israel as recently as last week in Baku produced an understanding over the deployment of troops to southern Syria to bring Sweida under government control.

Netanyahu's office declined to comment in response Reuters' questions.

Israel said on Friday it had agreed to allow limited access by Syrian forces into Sweida for the next two days. Soon after, Syria said it would deploy a force dedicated to ending the communal clashes, which continued into Saturday morning.