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Russia, US Wage Early Silent Battle over Syria Presidential Elections

Bashar Assad and his wife Asma at a polling station in Damascus on July 19. (AFP)
Bashar Assad and his wife Asma at a polling station in Damascus on July 19. (AFP)
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Russia, US Wage Early Silent Battle over Syria Presidential Elections

Bashar Assad and his wife Asma at a polling station in Damascus on July 19. (AFP)
Bashar Assad and his wife Asma at a polling station in Damascus on July 19. (AFP)

The upcoming Syrian presidential elections will be the scene of an “early silent battle” between Russia and its allies on the one side and the United States and its partners on the other. The elections will be the first to be held after Russia cemented its military presence in the war-torn country and during the first months of Joe Biden’s term as US president. They will also be held amid the significant field developments and the drawing of borders of the three “areas of influence” in Syria. Significantly, they are also being held amid a crippling economic crisis, western economic sanctions and Syria’s political and diplomatic isolation.

Clear message
Moscow, along with Damascus and Tehran, wants to hold the elections according to the current 2012 constitution and without any reforms that would be introduced in line with UN Security Council resolution 2254. Russia sees the elections as an opportunity to “open a new chapter” with regional and international forces and make them contend with the status quo and the “legitimate government”.

The Syrian Constitutional Committee has held four rounds of talks in Geneva and is set to meet again in late January to discuss the constitution. Other rounds had tackled “national principles”. Damascus has, however, sent a clear message that constitutional reform will not take place before the presidential elections, which are scheduled for mid-2021. Moscow has also backed it with a clearer message that “there is no timeframe” for constitutional reform and that the “elections are a sovereign Syrian affair.”

This means that the no constitutional reform will take place before the end of Bashar Assad’s term in mid-July. The elections will therefore, go ahead according to the 2012 constitution that grants wide privileges to the president, effectively paving the way for Assad’s third term in office.

The constitution also stipulates that any presidential candidate should have resided in Syria for ten consecutive years before running and they should garner the approval of 35 lawmakers.

The National Progressive Front, which includes a coalition of parties led by the ruling Baath, had won 183 out of the 250-seat parliament in the July elections earlier this year, meaning it controls who will run for president.

For Damascus, Moscow and Tehran, constitutional reform will be addressed after 2021, or rather when Assad wins a new seven-year term in office. He is expected to implement reform during the next parliamentary elections, set for 2024, unless he decides to hold them earlier.

A point of contention between Moscow and Damascus is the former’s desire for more candidates to run in the elections. Russia has been gradually testing the waters with various opposition candidates to that end. However, it will face obstacles in this regard, including the reluctance of central figures to run in a “sham election”. Other obstacles are the stipulation that the candidate should have lived in Syria for ten years and the support of 35 MPs.

Moscow’s intentions were clear when a Russian reporter asked Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during his visit to Damascus in September if the ten-year condition would be annulled. Damascus, however, stood firm. Late Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said at the time: “The presidential elections will be held on time. As for annulling the ten-year residency condition, that is for the higher electoral commission. In principle, anyone who meets the conditions is eligible to run in the elections.”

Conditions to run in elections are, however, a constitutional affair, not one for the higher electoral commission

Tehran has backed Moallem’s statements. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had in recent days stated that the “Syrian government is legitimate and very cooperative in the political process and constitutional reform.” Moscow, meanwhile, is still searching for the mechanisms to transform the upcoming elections into the beginning of a new chapter of how the West and region deal with Damascus. It is hoping that the new phase would “end Syria’s isolation and pave the way for reconstruction and normalization of political and diplomatic relations.” Key to this is amending the 2012 constitution to “add color” to the elections.

Calm consultations
Western countries, meanwhile, are holding calm consultations away from the media to take a united stand on how to deal with the elections. The US wants to “ignore” the polls as it did the parliamentary ones when it stated that it “will not recognize any elections that are not held according to resolution 2254.” The resolution calls for holding elections under the supervision of the UN and participation of Syrians, including those displaced abroad. Washington’s allies are meanwhile divided, with some wanting to ignore the polls, others proposing supporting an opposition candidate and others suggesting setting clear UN-approved standards to recognize any election.

Some countries have tried to persuade UN envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, to declare a position on the elections. He said that the elections are beyond his jurisdiction that are outlined in resolution 2254. He instead appointed an “elections advisor”, prompting a proposal for the declaration of standards and principles so that the elections can be recognized. The UN will be tasked with announcing them.

France had drafted a “non-paper” that sets the special standards of the polls. The document, a copy of which was obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, said: “Should the elections be free, transparent and neutral, and should they be held in a safe environment whereby all segments of Syrian society, including refugees abroad, take part without impediment, then the upcoming polls can effectively and truly cement stable legitimate institutions in the country.” These institutions are an “integral part of the broader political process in line with resolution 2254.” The elections can also be part of the permanent settlement for the conflict.

The omission of any of these conditions is an opportunity for the Assad regime to restore its false legitimacy in the post-conflict phase and deter refugees abroad from even thinking about returning home.

Strict conditions
The document, therefore, set strict conditions for the West to accept the elections. They are:

1- Cementing trust on the ground with the aim of preparing safe and impartial conditions during and after the elections. This will ensure that the electoral process is credible and the people’s rights are guaranteed.

2- Providing strong guarantees that refugees and the displaced will take part in the vote. Some 12 million refugees are displaced in Syria and abroad, so it is very important that they have their voice heard in the elections and that they even be allowed to run.

3- Providing the legal ground for holding electoral reform, including reforming articles 84 and 85 of the constitution and forming an independent UN-supervised panel to review electoral nominations.

4- UN supervision of the elections would provide strict impartiality in the electoral process. To that end, the organization must oversee the entire process, starting with reforming the electoral law, designating electoral roles, the voting, ballot stations and suitable electoral infrastructure.

Western countries did not recognize parliamentary elections held in Syria in 2012, 2016 and 2020 and the presidential elections in 2014. Washington is meanwhile, maintaining its sanctions according to the Caesar Act and is continuing to exert pressure to keep Damascus in political and diplomatic isolation until it begins to implement resolution 2254 and have Iran pull out its militias from Syria among other demands.

Background
The upcoming elections will be the 18th since 1932. The first elections ever held in Syria were the most diverse even though they were held under French mandate. Over 60 nominees ran for president, making them the largest field of candidates to ever run for the presidential elections in any country.

Syrian historians do not give much weight to the 1932 elections because they were held under French rule. They do however, highlight the 1955 elections that witnessed a race between Shukri al-Quwatli and Khalid al-Azm. All other elections after that were either referendums or uncontested affairs.

The diversity and competition of the 1932 race showed just how promising the nascent democracy in Syria was in the early 1930s. It showed just how much it could have prospered were it not for military coups and countercoups that began to plague the country from 1949.

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Features

Not Just Nvidia: These Power and Cooling Firms Are Riding the Trillion-Dollar Data Center Boom

An aerial view of an Amazon Web Services IAD10 data center on August 26, 2026 in Sterling, Virginia. (Getty Images/AFP)
An aerial view of an Amazon Web Services IAD10 data center on August 26, 2026 in Sterling, Virginia. (Getty Images/AFP)
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Not Just Nvidia: These Power and Cooling Firms Are Riding the Trillion-Dollar Data Center Boom

An aerial view of an Amazon Web Services IAD10 data center on August 26, 2026 in Sterling, Virginia. (Getty Images/AFP)
An aerial view of an Amazon Web Services IAD10 data center on August 26, 2026 in Sterling, Virginia. (Getty Images/AFP)

While Nvidia is synonymous with the AI boom, a lesser-known group of power and cooling equipment suppliers is cashing in on a global data center construction spree as developers race to avoid infrastructure bottlenecks.

Energy-hungry data centers have triggered a surge in demand for equipment ranging from transformers to advanced cooling systems, creating winners across Asia's supply chain, though earlier stock-price gains have moderated.

McKinsey forecasts nearly $7 trillion in data-center investment globally by 2030; Nvidia last week said it expects AI spending to remain robust for years.

But building data centers fast enough to meet demand is becoming more difficult. Hyperscalers often want facilities delivered within six months, but grid connection delays can stretch as long as 24 months in some emerging markets and more than eight years in major developed markets, according to consultancy Pivotale AI.

"Outside the industry circle, people are talking about (graphics processing units), but within the circle, people most certainly question you about the lead time for generators and transformers," said Wing Kin Cheung, the CEO of digital infrastructure service provider BodaData.

Transformers convert high-voltage electricity from grids into levels suitable for servers, cooling systems and power distribution units.

AI SCRUTINY DEEPENS

Leading transformer suppliers including ‌South Korea's HD Hyundai Electric ‌and China's Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology reported surging demand in the first half of 2026 tied to AI ‌infrastructure projects, ⁠particularly in North America.

HD ⁠Hyundai Electric recently said demand in Europe was rising as US hyperscalers expanded investments in markets like Finland, Germany and Britain, while Middle Eastern demand remained strong.

Its order backlog rose 23% to $8.5 billion at the end of June from six months earlier, and it said it expects data center demand to remain robust.

"We currently have an order backlog covering more than three years, with a substantial portion of production capacity for major power equipment secured for the coming three years," the company told Reuters.

"We are also in order discussions with some key customers for volumes scheduled for delivery as far out as 2030."

For Jinpan, new data-center orders in the first half more than quadrupled from a year earlier, while its related backlog nearly tripled.

As AI chips consume more electricity, equipment makers are also betting on technologies aimed at improving efficiency and reducing ⁠environmental impacts, amid growing public scrutiny over data centers' consumption of water and electricity.

Bank of America estimates power ‌consumption per AI rack could climb to more than 1.5 megawatts by the end of 2030, nearly 100 ‌times that of a conventional rack, citing Nvidia's roadmap.

One technology attracting greater attention is the solid-state transformer (SST), a device that replaces bulky magnetic coils and copper windings with semiconductors ‌to transform and route electricity.

UBS estimates SSTs will increase power efficiency by around 4% and reduce costs. While commercial adoption remains in its early stages, the ‌bank expects their penetration to climb to 40% in 2030 and forecasts that Chinese companies will gain share thanks to technological expertise and cost advantages.

HD Hyundai Electric and Jinpan said they are deepening SST development, while Taiwan's Delta Electronics, a major supplier of power infrastructure, said a small data center is using its SSTs.

Delta told Reuters that demand for AI power, cooling and data center infrastructure solutions remains a growth engine and it is expanding its production footprint across Thailand, the US and China to meet increased demand.

COOLING RACE

Cooling ‌systems are emerging as another growth area as operators struggle to manage the heat generated by powerful AI chips.

"Power and cooling basically go hand in hand; so basically the more power you use, the more cooling you ⁠need to use because you generate heat," ⁠said Matty Zhao, Bank of America's Asia-Pacific head of research for basic materials, oil and gas.

The bank forecasts liquid cooling will account for 70% of new AI data-center installations versus air cooling by 2030, up from about 30% today. Liquid cooling can reduce energy consumption by over 27%, McKinsey says.

Developers are also exploring unconventional approaches, including floating facilities, underwater data centers and servers in caves or tunnels.

That is creating opportunities for a broader range of suppliers.

"With the expansion of data center self-generation and the floating data center market, opportunities are also opening up to enter new markets for marine medium-speed engines," HD Hyundai Electric said.

Strong demand for thermal-management products is lifting Delta and local peers Asia Vital Components and Auras Technology, as well as China's Shenzhen Envicool Technology. All are suppliers in Nvidia's ecosystem.

SUPPLY CHAIN CONSTRAINTS

Despite surging orders, the stock-price gains of suppliers have moderated as investors question elevated valuations amid intensifying competition.

Delta's shares are up more than 90% this year, while HD Hyundai Electric has stayed largely flat, cooling from gains of more than 100% last year. China's Jinpan and Envicool have fallen nearly 30% and 20%, respectively, after surging 118% and 244% in 2025.

"Even if revenue increases, I think gross margin will probably remain at roughly this level," Delta Chairman Ping Cheng said in July.

"There are many variables in the market, including new product platforms, deployment delays and component shortages. These issues may become somewhat more serious in the second half of this year."

Bank of America's Zhao said investors should be aware of potential risks.

"Not everyone can win," she said. "You have to be cherry-picked for the leaders who actually get the customers."

Features

What Al-Gaddafi’s Inner Circle Said about Musa Al-Sadr’s Disappearance

Imam Musa al-al-Sadr. (File photo)
Imam Musa al-al-Sadr. (File photo)
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What Al-Gaddafi’s Inner Circle Said about Musa Al-Sadr’s Disappearance

Imam Musa al-al-Sadr. (File photo)
Imam Musa al-al-Sadr. (File photo)

Fifteen years after the fall of Moammar al-Gaddafi’s regime, the circumstances surrounding the disappearance of Imam Musa al-Sadr, head of Lebanon’s Supreme Islamic Shiite Council, during a visit to Libya on Aug. 31, 1978, remain unclear. Al-Sadr was accompanied by Sheikh Mohammed Yacoub and journalist Abbas Badreddine. No trace of the three men has ever been found. To date, Lebanese authorities have not disclosed the outcome of contacts they held with the forces that governed Libya after al-Gaddafi’s fall in 2011.

The disappearance of Imam al-Sadr was among the subjects I raised with Libyan officials during conversations about al-Gaddafi, his rule and the abuses committed under his regime. What follows are accounts I heard from them.

Moammar al-Gaddafi. (Reuters file)

Abdel Moneim al-Houni: The killing of al-Gaddafi’s pilot

After the Sept. 1, 1969, coup that brought al-Gaddafi to power, Abdel Moneim al-Houni held several senior posts. He was a member of the Libyan Revolutionary Command Council, headed the intelligence service and served as both interior and foreign minister.

I asked Houni about the case of the Lebanese Shiite leader.

“It is clear that Imam al-Sadr was eliminated,” he said. “This is certain, and it is the conviction of every Libyan I have met.”

“I will tell you something. My brother-in-law was a pilot who flew al-Gaddafi’s plane. His name was Najm al-Din al-Yaziji, and he held the rank of lieutenant colonel. Shortly after Imam al-Sadr disappeared, my brother-in-law was eliminated.”

“Family members said his killing was connected to the al-Sadr case. He had transported the imam’s body for burial in southern Libya, in the Sabha area. Relatives say his knowledge of what happened to Musa al-Sadr prompted the Libyan security services to kill him to conceal the secret. These are things that happen in crimes of this kind.”

Jalloud: "I alluded to the disappearance once. He merely replied, ‘Are you accusing me?’ The conversation ended there.”

Jalloud: Khomeini asked only for an explanation

Days after the triumph of Iran’s 1979 revolution, a Libyan delegation led by Abdessalam Jalloud, the Libyan regime’s “number two,” visited Tehran to offer congratulations and met Khomeini.

I asked Jalloud whether Khomeini had raised al-Sadr’s disappearance during the meeting.

“Yes,” he replied. “He expressed the hope that an explanation would be released about the circumstances of the case so that there would be no obstacle to cooperation between the two revolutions.”

“While I was at the hotel, a demonstration was organized outside involving 37 people, led by al-Sadr’s sister and her husband. They chanted slogans, but security personnel affiliated with the revolution quickly removed and dispersed them.”

I asked whether the al-Sadr case later became an obstacle in relations with Tehran.

“No,” Jalloud said. “As I told you before, we gave Iran missiles and played a central role in helping it obtain weapons” during its war with Iraq in the 1980s.

“I met al-Sadr once, in Lebanon in the mid-1970s,” he recalled.

“I did not even know that he was visiting Libya. When I learned of his disappearance, I was deeply distressed for two reasons. The first concerned the man himself and what he represented. The second was that I considered the act vile. It is not an Arab custom to invite someone into your home or country and then turn on him. Such conduct goes against Arab morals and Islamic values. The whole affair was strange and subjected to a severe blackout.”

I asked whether he had ever confronted al-Gaddafi about al-Sadr.

“I alluded to the matter once,” he said. “He merely replied, ‘Are you accusing me?’ The conversation ended there.”

Asked about reports of an altercation between al-Gaddafi and al-Sadr, Jalloud said: “I do not know the details. But I heard years ago that the police officer who impersonated al-Sadr and traveled to Italy using his passport after his disappearance had been placed under heavy guard by Moammar, who feared that he might be abducted after people began talking about his role.”

Asked whether he believed al-Sadr had been killed and buried, he said: “That is what reason tells me. It is impossible that he has remained hidden until now. Before the incident, of course, I had heard al-Gaddafi express annoyance that Iran was sending clerics who wielded influence among Arab Shiites. The truth is that I never imagined matters would go this far.”

Imam al-Sadr speaks at a press conference. (Imam Moussa al-Sadr Center for Research & Studies)

Shalgham: He came to Libya on Boumediene’s recommendation

I asked former Foreign Minister Abdel Rahman Shalgham about al-Sadr’s case.

He said he had met al-Sadr once, when the imam came to Cairo to deliver a lecture while Shalgham was a student there. Shalgham said he was under house arrest when al-Sadr came to Libya.

“There were reports that he came to Libya on the recommendation of Algerian President Houari Boumediene,” Shalgham said. “It was said that he had asked the Algerian president for assistance and that Boumediene advised him to meet al-Gaddafi.”

“It was also said that a dispute arose between al-Gaddafi and al-Sadr over religious issues. That is possible: al-Gaddafi was a Sunni of the Maliki school, while al-Sadr was a Shiite. The claim later emerged that someone had impersonated al-Sadr and traveled to Italy,” he added.

Shalgham continued: “One day, when I was foreign minister, al-Gaddafi and I were walking in Bab al-Aziziya. He said to me, ‘Abdel Rahman, the Italians are your friends, including the foreign and interior ministers. I only want to know the truth about the Musa al-al-Sadr affair.’

“After al-Gaddafi’s regime fell, numerous scenarios circulated. Some spoke of a possible role in al-Sadr’s elimination by Sabri al-Banna, better known as Abu Nidal, the leader of what was called Fatah – the Revolutionary Council,” he said.

“Many wondered whether al-Sadr had received a sum of money and whether that money led to what happened to him. I asked around, but no one confirmed the story about the money. Abdel Moneim al-Houni says al-Sadr was killed in Libya.”

Former Libyan Foreign Minister Ali Abdussalam Treki. (AFP file photo)

Treki: A strange crime

I put the same question to former Libyan Foreign Minister Ali Abdussalam Treki.

“Let us speak honestly: I have no knowledge of the details,” he said.

“Imam al-Sadr did not come to Libya through the Foreign Ministry. The ministry’s only role was to convey an invitation to al-Sadr through the Libyan chargé d’affaires in Beirut. Coordination was subsequently handled by other parties,” Treki explained.

“I did not meet al-Sadr. What I heard was that he was a man of struggle who held Arab nationalist views,” he added.

Treki noted: “We at the Foreign Ministry did not know how or when he arrived. Later, after I left the post of foreign minister, the ministry contacted the Italians. The authorities said at the time that he had left Tripoli for Rome.

“It was later rumored that a heated argument had taken place between al-Gaddafi and al-Sadr, and led to what followed. The story is strange. This serious and regrettable incident brought no benefit to Libya or the Arab nationalist cause and caused extensive damage. It was a strange crime, and I do not know whose interests it served or in what context it occurred,” he stated.

The account of Mismari, the protocol chief and ‘the colonel’s shadow’

Nouri al-Mismari served as chief of protocol with the rank of minister of state and was regarded as “the colonel’s shadow,” accompanying al-Gaddafi at home and on his travels.

I asked him about al-Sadr and let him tell the story.

“Something happened whose significance I did not appreciate at the time,” he said.

“Abdullah Senussi called me. At the time, he was a junior officer in the Military Intelligence Department, whose office was on Shatt Street. The department was headed by Capt. Abdullah al-Hijazi. That was his rank at the time, of course, and he was among those al-Gaddafi called the ‘Free Officers.’”

“Senussi asked me: ‘Is it necessary for the Italian authorities to stamp the passport of someone seeking to enter their territory?’ I replied: ‘Of course. It has to be stamped. Those are the rules followed in every country.’ He ended the call,” said al-Mismari.

“Senussi contacted me later and said: ‘I will send you some passports, and you are required to secure Italian visas for their holders.’ I believe there were three passports, but we are talking about something that happened decades ago. A soldier sent by Senussi came to me and handed me the passports.”

“I had no reason to be suspicious, but I opened them and found that one belonged to Imam Musa al-al-Sadr, may God have mercy on him. I do not recall the other names,” continued al-Mismari.

“I called the Italian ambassador and said we wanted visas for guests who were staying with us. He welcomed the request. I sent the passports, but Senussi soon called again and asked, ‘Is it done?’ I told him the process needed some time and that I would send the passports to him as soon as they were returned to me. That is what happened.”

“I later heard about Imam al-Sadr’s disappearance, and the incident remained in my memory, particularly because it was Senussi who had sent the passports,” he added.

Al-Mismari said al-Sadr never left Libya and that the Italians were innocent and had been deceived. Three people entered Italy, including a tall officer who wore al-Sadr’s clothes. They deliberately left the passports of al-Sadr and his two companions at the hotel, along with the imam’s prayer rug, and later departed using Libyan diplomatic passports.

Features

Nepal Floods Expose Risks to Hydropower in a Warming Himalayas

An undated handout photo of rescue workers taking part in a rescue operation near the tunnel of the Trishuli 3A Hydropower Project, following deadly flash floods and mudslides, in Rasuwa, Nepal. (Nepal Army/Handout via Reuters)
An undated handout photo of rescue workers taking part in a rescue operation near the tunnel of the Trishuli 3A Hydropower Project, following deadly flash floods and mudslides, in Rasuwa, Nepal. (Nepal Army/Handout via Reuters)
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Nepal Floods Expose Risks to Hydropower in a Warming Himalayas

An undated handout photo of rescue workers taking part in a rescue operation near the tunnel of the Trishuli 3A Hydropower Project, following deadly flash floods and mudslides, in Rasuwa, Nepal. (Nepal Army/Handout via Reuters)
An undated handout photo of rescue workers taking part in a rescue operation near the tunnel of the Trishuli 3A Hydropower Project, following deadly flash floods and mudslides, in Rasuwa, Nepal. (Nepal Army/Handout via Reuters)

Workers shoveled thick mud from a flood-ravaged power station in central Nepal this week, trying to restore electricity to more than 20,000 people.

The floods that swept through Nepal and China, killing hundreds and leaving thousands missing, have also overrun hydropower facilities, knocking out about 10% of Nepal’s power capacity.

Once the immediate aftermath of the disaster is dealt with, the question will be how to restore power plants, roads, bridges, schools and health facilities without exposing them to the same vulnerabilities, disaster experts said.

“Authorities have to take a hard look in the mirror now and ask how they will be rebuilding in these places. They will also have to take a close look at other projects in Nepal that have not been built yet, whether they’ll be approved after this event,” said Jakob Steiner, a geoscientist at the University of Graz in Austria, who is currently based in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Rebuilding for resilience, not just replacement Hydropower projects that were operating or under construction were fully or partly destroyed across Rasuwa, Nuwakot and Dhading, among the worst-hit districts.

Hundreds of workers in Nepal are unaccounted for from a dozen hydropower projects, according to the Independent Power Producers’ Association, Nepal. Many had taken shelter in the tunnels but are stuck, waiting to be rescued, according to officials.

“The tunnels are built to access hydropower infrastructure and to divert water,” Steiner said, describing the tunnels as big enough for trucks to pass through.

Apart from the hydropower projects, tens of kilometers of roads, multiple bridges and essential buildings like schools and hospitals have been destroyed.

Ramraj Narasimhan, a senior director with the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, said rebuilding should focus on continuity of services rather than trying to make every structure indestructible.

“If it gets damaged, let it get damaged, but can we build in redundancy in the system?” he said.

That can mean choosing a better location for construction, alternate routes, backup power, improved early warning and financial tools such as insurance to speed recovery, Narasimhan said. Risk assessments should examine where a river bends, where slopes are unstable and where a single failure could cut off several communities.

Narasimhan’s organization estimates that $124 billion worth of Nepal’s infrastructure is exposed to climate-driven disasters, creating the potential for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses each year. A report by the coalition earlier this year found that Nepal’s average annual losses are nearly $760 million from various disasters, while the country’s national disaster funds is only a fraction of this amount.

Climate risks grow for Himalayan hydropower

Climate scientists said the Himalayan region, which is warming faster than many other parts of the world, is particularly at risk from increasing global warming as a result of human-caused climate change.

Climate experts said the flooding adds to evidence that infrastructure planning in the Himalayas should account for disasters that are increasing as the climate warms. Glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya are losing ice at an accelerating rate, while permafrost degradation, unstable slopes, glacial lakes and increasingly erratic rainfall are raising the risks of floods, landslides and debris flows, according to reports by Kathmandu-based climate research group International Center for Integrated Mountain Development.

The stakes are particularly high for Nepal because hydropower is both a foundation of its electricity grid and an important source of economic growth and export revenue. Much of the country’s potential is run-of-river hydropower, Narasimhan said, meaning facilities are closely tied to steep river corridors where land is limited and hazards can cascade quickly.

Steiner said smaller floods can sometimes be managed with diversions that keep debris and high flows away from expensive infrastructure and tunnels. But for events as large as the latest flood, he said, physical defenses may be overwhelmed. In those cases, early warning becomes the critical protection for people.

He said the flood was detected at the China-Nepal border after moving rapidly from its source, leaving little warning time upstream. But there was still time as the flood traveled downstream toward hydropower sites, raising questions about whether warnings could have reached workers sooner.

The disaster is also likely to intensify scrutiny of where future projects are approved. Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, said environmental, social and disaster-risk assessments need to reflect the specific landscape and past hazards of each valley, backed by land-use rules and stronger accountability.

Hydropower projects can themselves become “force multipliers” when large structures, debris and altered river channels add to downstream damage, Thakkar said. He argued that Nepal should also consider more decentralized solar power as part of a broader energy mix.

Thakkar said the question now is not only how fast Nepal can rebuild, but what it chooses to put back in the path of the next flood.