Russia Predicts Israeli-Iranian Clash in Syria in 2021
Israeli soldiers take part in an exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, near the ceasefire line between Israel and Syria, March 20, 2017. (Reuters)
Russia Predicts Israeli-Iranian Clash in Syria in 2021
Israeli soldiers take part in an exercise in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, near the ceasefire line between Israel and Syria, March 20, 2017. (Reuters)
Russian media cautioned this week of a possible confrontation between Israel and Iranian forces in southern Syria.
Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported Monday on Israeli preparations for an armed conflict on the border with Syria in 2021.
“Southern Syria could turn into the arena of the first northern war between Israel and the Iranian forces,” it wrote, citing the threat assessment for 2021 presented by the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University (INSS).
The daily said Israeli experts, most of whom are former representatives of the Israeli army and intelligence agencies, recommended that Israel be prepared for such a development, adding that pro-Iranian forces will be able to significantly increase the accuracy of their attacks against Israeli positions in 2021.
The experts did not rule out the “military option” should administration of US President-elect Joe Biden decide to rejoin the nuclear deal with Iran. Israel will work on easing the danger of the possible return to the bad deal, they said.
The report said that Israel must continue its operations to weaken pro-Iranian forces and prevent their entrenchment in Syria.
Observers believe that a chief threat is Hezbollah’s efforts to obtain precision-guided missiles that would pose a significant threat to Israeli air defenses.
The Russian daily noted that Israel has upped its attacks on Iranian positions in Syria in recent days, targeting Hezbollah and the Iranian Quds Force in the south and west.
At the same time, the Israeli military has boosted defenses in the south by deploying Iron Dome anti-missile batteries near the city of Eilat.
The daily linked the developments to predictions that Israel could be subject to rocket attacks not just from the Gaza Strip, but from northwestern Yemen.
The experts said that it remains to be seen just how successful Iran’s proxies have been in developing precision-guided missiles, but Yemen appears to be a potential location from where attacks can be launched against Israel.
Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan stated that the high cost of living is 'part of the battle' and pledged to emerge victorious (AFP).
Sudan has entered a new phase of economic turmoil after its currency, the pound, fell sharply against foreign currencies, with the dollar trading above 9,000 pounds in some parallel-market transactions in recent days.
The pound later temporarily recovered some of its losses, but severe volatility disrupted markets, prompting some traders to suspend sales and close their shops.
Exchange-rate movements illustrate the scale of the deterioration. The dollar, which traded at about 4,400 pounds on the parallel market in June, surged to more than 9,000 pounds at the height of this month’s September turmoil.
The number of pounds needed to buy one dollar has nearly doubled in about three months.
Rates quoted by several banks remained far below those on the parallel market, reflecting a widening gap between the official banking rate and the price at which traders obtain foreign currency outside the banking system.
After a limited improvement on Friday, the dollar again rose above 8,000 pounds on Saturday amid a shortage of US currency in banks.
Sovereign Council Chairman and army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan directly linked the economic crisis to the war.
“The battle has taken many forms,” Burhan said after Friday prayers in Khartoum’s Burri district. He described the economic crisis, rising prices and scarcity of resources as “part of this battle” and pledged that Sudan would emerge “victorious, just as we drove the rebellion out of Khartoum and other cities.”
Exchange-rate, market and gold-production figures suggest that the “economic battle” is more complicated than controlling currency speculators. It involves the wartime economy, shortages of foreign currency, declining production, foreign-trade imbalances and gold smuggling.
Prices surge
The pound’s depreciation is having a direct effect on people’s lives.
During a tour of markets in Khartoum and Wad Madani on Sept. 18, local broadcaster Radio Tamazuj reported that the price of a 50-kg sack of sugar had risen to 470,000 pounds from 380,000 pounds, an increase of about 24%.
A sack of flour climbed to 120,000 pounds from 80,000 pounds, an increase of about 50%.
The broadcaster said most of the shops visited during the tour were closed. Traders had stopped selling because prices were changing so rapidly that they could not determine how much it would cost to replace the goods they sold.
Closures spread to other cities. Local reports from Atbara in River Nile state said that a growing number of shops had closed and traders were refusing to sell. Reports from Duwaim said about three-quarters of shops had closed, citing local traders.
In Tamboul in Gezira state, activists circulated a local account describing the city’s market as almost at a standstill, with shops closed and goods scarce.
The account put the price of a 50-kg sack of sugar at 600,000 pounds, a sack of sorghum at 500,000 pounds, a 36-pound container of cooking oil at 400,000 pounds and a sack of flour at 150,000 pounds.
The prices could not be independently verified, nor could it be confirmed whether the closures affected the entire market.
The crisis is reflected in the experience of grocery store owner Ibrahim Idris, who said his capital was no longer sufficient to stock the range and quantities of goods he had previously sold.
Idris said the price of a 36-pound container of cooking oil had risen to nearly 350,000 pounds from about 170,000 pounds over the past month, more than doubling.
Customers were buying smaller quantities, he said, while increasing numbers were asking to purchase goods on credit.
Nahla Khalifa, a homemaker from Omdurman, previously told Asharq Al-Awsat that her family had often gone without meat, milk and vegetables, while obtaining medication for her husband, who has diabetes, had become increasingly difficult.
Osman al-Jundi, a supervisor of community kitchens, or takayas, in Khartoum, told Asharq Al-Awsat days before the sharp currency decline that falling donations, rising prices and the pound’s depreciation had forced several free kitchens to close.
Only two kitchens in his area were still operating daily, he said, even as the number of people in need continued to grow. They included displaced people from Kordofan, as well as children, women, older people and people with disabilities.
The Sudanese pound continues its slide to a record low against the dollar (Reuters)
Gold production declines
The sharpest contradiction emerges in Sudan’s gold sector.
According to data from the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company, recorded gold production exceeded 70.15 metric tons in 2025. That included about 58.38 tons from traditional mining, roughly 5.68 tons from mining-waste processing companies and about 5.96 tons from concession companies.
However, the amount of gold entering official export channels was far below recorded production.
Data attributed to the Central Bank of Sudan showed that about 14.7 tons of gold, worth nearly $1.54 billion, were exported in 2025. In a separate estimate, the finance minister said about 20 tons had entered official channels.
The difference cannot be treated entirely as smuggled gold because of existing stockpiles, domestic consumption and trade, as well as differences in how the data are calculated. It nevertheless reveals a substantial gap between recorded production and the amount appearing in official exports.
An official at the Sudanese Mineral Resources Company previously estimated that about 48% of the country’s 2024 gold production had been smuggled, depriving the banking system of a significant source of foreign currency.
Gold is also intertwined with the war. A study by the Chatham House think tank said both sides in the conflict had benefited from the gold economy and its production and trading networks, although through different methods and in different areas of influence.
The study linked gold-sector revenues to the warring parties’ ability to finance operations and obtain resources, weapons and supplies.
That does not mean all proceeds from official gold exports are used for military spending. The state also uses foreign currency to finance imports of fuel, wheat and other goods and necessities.
A further contradiction has emerged within the gold sector itself.
Twenty-three mining companies have threatened to begin gradually suspending production on Sept. 30 and halt it entirely on Oct. 1 in protest against the Central Bank of Sudan’s mechanism for purchasing gold.
The companies say they produce about 17% of the country’s gold and that the central bank’s purchase price does not cover rising fuel, transportation, wage and operating costs caused by the pound’s depreciation.
The distortions extend beyond the gold market.
While the dollar rose above 9,000 pounds in some transactions in government-controlled areas, it traded at about 4,600 pounds in cash in Nyala. Its price through transfers using the Bankak banking application reached about 6,500 pounds.
The cash price of the dollar in Nyala was, therefore, at roughly the same time, about half the rate recorded in some markets in government-controlled territory.
That does not mean the economy in areas controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces is stronger.
Experts and traders attribute much of the difference to the shortage of banknotes, or cash liquidity, in Darfur, as well as different trade routes and foreign-currency flows. Markets in western Sudan are also linked to Chad, Libya and South Sudan.
The difference within Nyala itself — 4,600 pounds in cash versus 6,500 pounds via bank transfer — illustrates the distortions created by the liquidity crisis.
Seeking solutions
As the pound’s decline accelerated, the National Committee for Economic Management, headed by Prime Minister Kamil Idris, formed a committee led by Finance Minister Gibril Ibrahim to address the exchange-rate crisis.
The announced measures include increasing agricultural, livestock and mining production; encouraging manufacturing and exports; reducing imports; regulating the gold trade and combating smuggling; requiring exporters to repatriate export proceeds; and confronting currency speculation and foreign-exchange trading outside official channels.
But the figures present those measures with a clear test.
The dollar has risen above 9,000 pounds despite previous interventions. Gold production has exceeded 70 tons, yet far smaller quantities have appeared in official exports. Companies producing 17% of the country’s gold are threatening to halt operations, while shops have closed because traders can no longer set stable prices for their goods.
The contradiction between Burhan’s pledge to prevail in the “economic battle” and the economic data is stark: Sudan produces more than 70 tons of gold annually but suffers from a shortage of foreign currency.
The dollar trades above 9,000 pounds in one market and at about 4,600 in another, while flour prices in some markets rose by 50% during the latest bout of volatility.
For Sudanese people, the question is therefore no longer merely when the dollar will fall. It is how much real value the pound retains — and how much food and medicine it will be able to buy the following day.
US Withdrawal Fears Grip Baghdadhttps://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5320327-us-withdrawal-fears-grip-baghdad
An American helicopter flies near the Harir Air Base in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan (Rudaw file photo)
The Sept. 30 withdrawal of US forces will mark Iraq’s shift toward full security self-reliance and remove any justification for armed activity outside state control, the spokesman for the commander-in-chief of Iraq’s armed forces said on Saturday.
The transition would “eliminate any justification for operating outside state institutions and give those institutions the security and legitimacy needed to disarm unofficial groups,” Sabah al-Numan told the state news agency.
“The professional performance of the Iraqi armed forces has proven that they are the impenetrable shield protecting political decision-making and the primary guarantor of Iraq’s unity and national stability,” he said.
But the upcoming withdrawal has stirred fears in Baghdad, rattling markets and reviving concerns over the fate of armed factions. Sources close to the government say the warnings circulating publicly are exaggerated.
The Iraqi government and allied political forces are preparing to declare the withdrawal date a “day of Iraqi sovereignty.”
Much of the unease, however, centers on the possible repercussions of bringing weapons under state control — an initiative that Iraqi politicians say may be recast as a “plan to regulate and manage weapons.”
Qasim al-Araji, the prime minister’s national security adviser, said the government would regard anyone who continued to carry weapons illegally after the process was completed as an outlaw.
“Strict measures will be taken against them, potentially including treating them as terrorists,” al-Araji said in televised remarks.
He denied reports that the committee overseeing the process had been given a deadline, saying no timeframe had been set.
Al-Araji said the committee, formed by the Coordination Framework alliance, was working under the prime minister’s direct supervision.
Legal action against those carrying illegal weapons would begin only after the committee had completed its work and arms had been brought fully under state control, he added.
Government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi called Sept. 30 “a sovereign milestone” that would shift Iraq’s relationship with international coalition members toward bilateral ties based on respect for sovereignty and mutual interests.
The government was proceeding with plans to end the coalition’s military mission according to the agreed timetable and mechanisms, al-Aboudi told the state news agency.
“Iraq possesses the constitutional, political and diplomatic tools needed to manage its national security through its institutions and armed forces,” he said.
Al-Shorja wholesale market in central Baghdad, Iraq (Reuters)
Fears of sanctions
Despite repeated government assurances, religious leaders and experts have warned of possible repercussions after the withdrawal.
Abdul Wahab al-Samarrai, imam and preacher of Baghdad’s Abu Hanifa al-Numan Mosque, raised the prospect of economic sanctions resembling those tightened against Iraq in the 1990s.
“We sent a message to our government and its prime minister that this country and its people are a trust for which they are responsible,” al-Samarrai said.
“Honoring that trust requires placing the interests of the country and its people above those of groups and individuals.”
“Some are talking about economic sanctions and recalling the days of the embargo,” he added. “We therefore urge officials not to gamble with the country’s fate or place the wishes of some Iraqis above the interests of everyone.”
Concern has largely focused on whether efforts to bring weapons under state control could falter. Many link the risk of regional isolation or sanctions to failure, while political forces and armed factions have publicly rejected attempts to disarm them.
Sadr al-Din al-Qubanji, the imam and Friday preacher in Najaf, warned that “any political or security unrest in Iraq would trigger a crisis across the entire region and destabilize the global economy.”
“These issues must therefore be addressed rationally,” he said.
Politicians close to the government, however, said the public warnings were exaggerated, including reports that Washington and Baghdad had exchanged messages over possible sanctions.
President Donald Trump, gestures as he greets Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House, Tuesday, July 14, 2026, in Washington.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Dollar rises as markets slow
The conflicting messages come as stagnation grips local markets, according to domestic trade organizations.
Eco Iraq, an economic monitoring group, said the dollar had risen to unprecedented levels against the dinar on the parallel market.
“The current increase is not linked to a single factor but is the result of an interplay of economic, financial and psychological factors,” it said in a statement.
The group cited speculation on the parallel market, where traders have capitalized on rising demand for dollars and shrinking supply.
“Fears and speculation related to developments after Sept. 30, discussions surrounding bringing weapons under state control and claims of possible US sanctions are increasing market uncertainty and prompting some traders to raise their demand for dollars,” it said.
The parallel exchange rate has climbed above 162,000 Iraqi dinars per $100 in recent days. Observers said the rise had disrupted trade in goods, compounding repercussions that have persisted for months since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict.
Traders in Baghdad, Erbil and Basra told Asharq Al-Awsat that buying and selling had fallen to unprecedented levels, forcing some businesses to close until further notice.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi plans to travel to the United States for the United Nations General Assembly after ending a European tour that took him to France and Germany.
His schedule could include a meeting with US President Donald Trump, although authorities in Washington and Baghdad have yet to confirm one.
Israel Links Southern Lebanon Withdrawal to Stronger Lebanese Armyhttps://english.aawsat.com/arab-world/5320324-israel-links-southern-lebanon-withdrawal-stronger-lebanese-army
Israel Links Southern Lebanon Withdrawal to Stronger Lebanese Army
Israeli heavy machinery bulldozes houses in Mansouri, as seen from Hinniyeh, Southern Lebanon, September 19, 2026. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
From protecting northern Israeli communities to disarming Hezbollah and ensuring that the Lebanese army can assume responsibility for security, Israel has set a series of conditions for the future of its occupation of southern Lebanon.
Although Israel says it has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon, statements by its officials in recent months have offered no clear timetable for withdrawal, instead linking it to a succession of security and political conditions.
From protecting the north to a “security zone”
Amid repeated Israeli statements focusing on maintaining the occupation of southern Lebanon, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on June 21 that the Israeli military would continue operating there.
He said troops deployed in the “security zone” would not withdraw and would retain freedom of action to eliminate threats.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar later said Israel had no territorial ambitions in Lebanon, while stressing that it would not withdraw from the “security zone,” citing the need to protect Israeli citizens from Hezbollah attacks.
Katz was more explicit in rejecting any imminent withdrawal. On June 24, he said the Israeli military will not withdraw from the security zone, even if the US demands it.
The following day, the language shifted from security necessity to an open-ended timeline. Katz said Israeli forces would remain in security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza "without any time limit."
Disarming Hezbollah as a condition
At the end of June, Katz sought to reconcile Israel’s denial of territorial ambitions with its continued military control, insisting that Israel would not withdraw by a single millimeter before Hezbollah was disarmed.
Days later came his most direct statement. After US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, Katz responded: “We did not ask permission from any party to enter Lebanon and we do not need permission to stay in Lebanon."
A new condition: Strengthening the Lebanese army
The latest US statement introduced another criterion for the future of Israel’s presence. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said on Saturday that the Israeli military will remain in southern Lebanon until the Lebanese army “is strong enough to be the securing force.”
Israeli objectives extend beyond withdrawal
Retired Lebanese Army Maj. Gen. Abdul Rahman Chehaitli said Israel’s objectives went beyond maintaining a military presence in the south.
They included reaching “a military and security agreement between the two countries and abolishing everything that defines Israel as an enemy,” eventually establishing relations “like those between any two states,” in addition, of course, to disarming Hezbollah.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Chehaitli said Israel was seeking to establish a joint border committee to monitor violations, followed by economic agreements.
Its most important objective, he said, was a meeting between the Lebanese and Israeli presidents. He viewed Israel’s pressure on the Lebanese state as serving that goal.
Chehaitli rejected linking an Israeli withdrawal to strengthening the Lebanese army, arguing that Israel itself was obstructing efforts to secure the support the army needed. He cited the Paris conference, which ended without final decisions.
The Lebanese army, including its officers and troops, was “fully prepared to carry out its duties,” he said.
The army and Hezbollah’s weapons
Chehaitli said Israel wanted the Lebanese army to act as an “advance detachment,” confronting Hezbollah first before Israeli forces took over — a role he said the army “will not perform.”
The natural sequence, he said, was that “once Israel says it has completed its military operations in Lebanon, the Lebanese army can then carry out its mission.” In other words, an Israeli withdrawal would allow the Lebanese state and its army to assume their responsibilities fully.
Addressing Hezbollah’s refusal to surrender its weapons and Israel’s use of the issue as justification for continuing the occupation, Chehaitli said Israel had previously tied its withdrawal to the Lebanese government adopting decisions establishing the state’s exclusive control over weapons.
“That has happened,” he said. “Parliament granted the government confidence for the third time, including the Shiite component and Hezbollah in particular, which did not withhold confidence from it and therefore did not reject its decisions.”
After an Israeli withdrawal, Chehaitli said, the government could implement its decisions throughout Lebanon “regardless of whether Hezbollah explicitly agrees.”
Israel’s continued presence made the task of the state and army more difficult, he added. “The occupation is the obstacle preventing the state from implementing its decisions and assuming its full responsibilities.”
Two Israeli soldiers were wounded
The statements came as Israeli attacks continued at varying levels of intensity in recent days.
Nabatieh came under a barrage of strikes on Saturday. Israeli warplanes carried out two rounds of strikes on the Old Square neighborhood in Nabatieh al-Fawqa before launching a third strike that targeted emergency teams from the Islamic Risala Scout Association and the Bayt al-Talaba ambulance service as they headed to the site of the earlier attacks.
Members of both teams escaped unharmed, and no casualties were reported.
In Khiam, the Israeli military carried out a large demolition operation in the morning, coinciding with a powerful explosion in the Mansouri area. Israeli warplanes also launched a series of strikes on Mansouri and Kfar Tebnit and bombed Wadi al-Salouqi.
Israeli artillery shelled the outskirts of the towns of Haddatha, Haris and Mayfadoun at dawn as part of a field escalation affecting several areas of southern Lebanon.
Later in the afternoon, the Israeli military said two soldiers were wounded when an explosive device detonated inside what Israel calls its “security zone” in southern Lebanon. It accused Hezbollah of planting the device and announced a series of strikes on sites across several parts of the south.
The Israeli military said its targets included observation posts and facilities it said had been used to prepare operations against its forces. It also confirmed that its troops remained deployed inside what it describes as the “security zone” in southern Lebanon and said it would continue acting against what it considers threats to its forces and Israeli residents.
لم تشترك بعد
انشئ حساباً خاصاً بك لتحصل على أخبار مخصصة لك ولتتمتع بخاصية حفظ المقالات وتتلقى نشراتنا البريدية المتنوعة
