Biden Advised to Hold Negotiations with Preconditions with Assad

Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) talk with members of US forces in Darbasiya, Syria. (Reuters)
Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) talk with members of US forces in Darbasiya, Syria. (Reuters)
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Biden Advised to Hold Negotiations with Preconditions with Assad

Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) talk with members of US forces in Darbasiya, Syria. (Reuters)
Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) talk with members of US forces in Darbasiya, Syria. (Reuters)

Before US President Joe Biden could complete his “Syria team”, Washington was bombarded by demands during its transitional period to opt for a new approach to tackle the war-torn country. Among them is a phased approach with Damascus based on negotiations with president Bashar Assad.

Kurdish romance
So far, among the appointments to the team is Brett McGurk, who has been selected as coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa at the National Security Council. McGurk was previously described by Ankara as the new Lawrence of Arabia due to his sympathy with the Kurds in their plight against Turkey. In fact, one of the main reasons that prompted his resignation from the previous administration was Donald Trump’s “abandonment” of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces – Washington’s key ally in the fight against ISIS – when he declared that he was pulling out American troops from Syria.

McGurk will be joined by Zahra Bell, who was in charge of facilitating inter-Kurdish Syrian dialogue to boost stability in the region, which boasts some 500 American soldiers, who in turn support 100,000 SDF fighters. The SDF controls a fourth of Syria’s territory and about 80 percent of its resources, making it a valuable asset for Washington in negotiations with Moscow, Tehran, Damascus and Ankara.

Questions remain over who will be named US special representative for Syria to succeed James Jeffery and Joel Rayburn. Questions have also been raised as to whether the Syria file will be handled by the National Security Council or whether the Secretary of State will adopt a more hands-on approach, like the one taken by Mike Pompeo and his team. Pompeo advocated the “maximum pressure” economic, political and military policy against Damascus and pushed for its continued political Arab and western isolation.

On the margin
There appears to be consensus that the Syrian conflict will not be high on Biden’s list of priorities. The new administration appears to be focused on the strained ties with Russia and efforts to return to the Iran nuclear deal.

Even though Syria will likely to remain on the margin, numerous articles, researches and studies have been published, suggesting a new American approach to the conflict. Former US Ambassador to Damascus Robert Ford was among the first to declare that the US policy in Syria had “failed” in achieving it declared goals. Writing to Foreign Policy, he said that it has only succeeded in the fight against ISIS. He suggested that Washington cooperate with Russia and Turkey in Syria even though those two countries often go it alone in tackling several issues in the conflict.

Meanwhile, Lebanese, Syrian and western figures appealed to Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron to lift sanctions against Damascus. In a letter to the two leaders, they urged them to adopt a new approach.

Former US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, meanwhile, sprung a surprise by calling for a new American approach in Syria. The official is known for being one of Assad’s fiercest critics, so his article, with Hrair Balian, in Responsible Statescraft raised a few eyebrows when he noted that the Biden administration “has an opportunity to re-evaluate US policy on Syria, prioritizing diplomacy to advance our interests.”

“One of us (Feltman) has been known for years as a strong critic of Syrian president Bashar Assad and Syria’s domestic and external policies. The other (Balian) has been a strong critic of the notion that pressure alone will change what we consider to be problematic behavior,” they added.

Two options
“Our policy differences, especially regarding Assad remain strong, making our joint recommendation that much more significant. Indeed, we agree that, with the exception of confronting the ISIS threat in northeast Syria, US policy since 2011 has failed to produce positive results – and that a pivot is necessary,” they said.

“US interests in Syria include eliminating the threat posed by terrorist groups, preventing the use and proliferation of chemical weapons, and alleviating the suffering of millions of civilians whose lives have been shattered by the combination of war, repression, corruption and sanctions,” they added.

“Current US policy — centered on isolating and sanctioning Syria — has succeeded in crippling the country’s already war-ravaged economy, but it has failed to produce behavioral change … Instead, these policies contributed to Syria’s deepening reliance on Russia and Iran,” they remarked.

“The United States is now confronted with a choice between the current approach, which has succeeded only in contributing to a festering failed state, or a reconceived diplomatic process that aims to develop a detailed framework for engaging the Syrian government on a limited set of concrete and verifiable steps, which, if implemented, will be matched by targeted assistance and sanctions adjustments from the United States and EU,” they stressed.

The Carter Center provided a framework for a phased approach to the conflict. It is based on interviews with US, European, Russian and UN officials, analysts at think tanks and universities, and Syrians from across the country’s multiple political divides. It suggested that Washington exempt efforts to combat COVID-19 in Syria from its sanctions. It also proposed facilitating the rebuilding of civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools, and the gradual easing of American and European sanctions on condition that these steps should not be taken before Damascus makes tangible steps from its end.

Damascus is required to release detained political detainees, ensure the safe and dignified return of refugees to their homes, protect civilians and ensure the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to all regions. It must eliminate all of its chemical weapons arsenal in line with the 2013 agreement, carry out political and security reforms, including demonstrate goodwill at the Geneva talks, and adopt decentralized governance.

No gift to Damascus
Supporters of this approach believe that the majority of countries have years ago abandoned their demand for Assad to step down. And yet, these countries have continued to adopt their policy of pressure and isolation that has failed to achieve any reform.

“The escalating economic crisis, coupled with rising concern over the current trajectory in Syria, may present an opportunity to test an alternative, more pragmatic approach. This would defer resolution of the most contentious issues while focusing instead on a more limited set of reforms in return for reconstruction assistance and sanctions relief. The aim would be to stabilize the current situation in Syria and build some forward momentum for a larger diplomatic process to end the warm” said the report.

“For US and European policymakers, the Syrian government’s human rights record and its close alignment with geopolitical adversaries Russia and Iran make engagement politically hazardous, especially without evidence that it would lead to meaningful concessions. By comparison, continuing to isolate Syria is commonly perceived as a low-cost, low-risk strategy that avoids rewarding the government for crimes committed over the course of the war,” it added.

“The current diplomatic approach is leading nowhere, or worse. While conditions may not yet be in place for productive negotiations, the August 2020 visit by two senior US officials to Damascus to obtain the release of US citizens held in Syria has at least opened the door to explore new avenues for dialogue, possibly on broader issues,” it noted.

Critics of the new approach say that it lacks geopolitical depth, especially in regards to the Iranian and Turkish presence in Syria.



Iran After Trump’s Win: Calls for New Approach, Challenge to Soleimani’s ‘Killer’

An Iranian holds a copy of the Hamshahri newspaper in a street in downtown Tehran (EPA)
An Iranian holds a copy of the Hamshahri newspaper in a street in downtown Tehran (EPA)
TT

Iran After Trump’s Win: Calls for New Approach, Challenge to Soleimani’s ‘Killer’

An Iranian holds a copy of the Hamshahri newspaper in a street in downtown Tehran (EPA)
An Iranian holds a copy of the Hamshahri newspaper in a street in downtown Tehran (EPA)

The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson has said that Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election offers an opportunity for the US to reassess its “misguided policies.”

“What matters for Iran is the performance of the US administration,” said Ismail Baghai on Thursday, noting that Tehran had “bitter experiences” with past US policies.

He added that Trump’s win is a “chance to reconsider the previous wrong directions” of the US, according to the official IRNA news agency.

Iranian newspapers were divided, with some calling for Tehran to adopt a new approach, while others opposed the policies of the “architect of maximum pressure” and the “killer” of Gen. Qasem Soleimani.

On Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the US election result was of no concern to Iran.

“It doesn't matter to us who won the US election, as our strength lies in our internal power and a great nation,” Pezeshkian said.

“We are not narrow-minded in developing relations with other countries, prioritizing ties with Islamic and neighboring nations,” he added, according to Iranian media. It was unclear if he was referring to the US, with which Iran has no diplomatic ties.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has banned direct talks with the US.

On Wednesday, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mahdiani downplayed the importance of the election.

“The US presidential election won’t affect us. Iran’s policies remain unchanged,” she said.

“It doesn't matter who the US president is. We’ve already planned for various scenarios, given the sanctions on Iran for over 40 years,” she added.

Last Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: “We don’t place much importance on the US election or who is elected.”

Baghai, speaking at his weekly press conference on Monday, said Iran’s stance on Trump is “clear” when asked how Tehran would respond if Trump offered to negotiate.

Trump’s victory comes amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran, with direct strikes exchanged after years of indirect conflict.

Reuters speculated that Trump’s return to office would mean stricter enforcement of US oil sanctions on Iran, which were imposed in 2018 after the US left the nuclear deal.

Trump criticized President Joe Biden’s policy of not enforcing strict sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, claiming it weakened the US and emboldened Tehran to expand its nuclear program and support armed groups.

In his first term, Trump reimposed sanctions after withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, which had limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic benefits.

These sanctions hurt Iran’s oil exports, reduced government revenue, and led to unpopular measures like tax hikes, while inflation remained near 40%.

In September, Pezeshkian said Tehran was ready to resolve the nuclear issue with the West, which accuses Iran of seeking nuclear weapons.

Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but officials have hinted at possibly changing its direction.

Biden tried to revive the nuclear deal but failed to reach a new agreement. It’s unclear if Trump would pursue a similar approach.

Trump’s victory in the US presidential election dominated Iranian newspapers on Thursday morning, with the reformist Sazandegi newspaper, under the headline “Trump’s Return,” saying that no decision-makers in Iran are comfortable with Trump’s win, as it could harm the country in several ways.

The paper, aligned with former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s faction, predicted that Trump might increase uncertainty, tighten sanctions, block Iran’s oil exports, and destabilize the economy, which would hurt ordinary Iranians.

The paper also suggested that the situation could change if the Iranian government adjusts its approach in response to Trump’s win but criticized Iran’s decision-makers for being slow to adapt.

It acknowledged that while Iran’s actions over the past 50 years have led all US administrations to view it as an enemy, the impact of the US president can vary.

The newspaper warned that Trump’s policies could lead to a bigger budget deficit, rising inflation, and a higher exchange rate, all of which would harm various sectors of Iran’s economy.

It noted that the country’s currency stability relies on oil revenues and foreign political relations.

With ongoing regional tensions and sanctions, any drop in oil revenues and difficulty accessing global markets could worsen Iran’s economic challenges, making it harder for the government to manage its budget and financial crises.

Analysts quoted by Sazandegi said Trump’s reelection might not lead to war but could result in harsher sanctions targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile programs without military action.

They also predicted that Russia might increase its pressure on Iran, potentially pushing the country toward a “Look East” strategy.

Reformist politician Mohammad Hashemi Rafsanjani wrote in Arman Emruz that Trump, as a businessman, would likely prefer economic cooperation with Iran over military conflict.

He suggested Trump might push for trade talks with Iran, opening the market to US companies, similar to European firms before the nuclear deal.

Hashemi noted that any conflict could drive up oil and gas prices, and as a businessman, Trump would likely avoid this. Instead, he would seek to strengthen economic ties between Iran and the US.

Hashemi also pointed out that the nuclear deal brought Iran significant economic benefits, including the return of $100 billion in frozen assets.

Arman Emruz warned that Trump’s return could escalate Middle East tensions and complicate relations with China and Russia over issues like Ukraine and Taiwan.

Etemad newspaper said that during his first term, Trump tried to turn Iran from a legitimate player into a pariah state, aiming to restrict and isolate it. It added that Trump’s return now is not in Iran’s interest.

The paper called for a “different policy” toward Trump. Reformist activist and former MP Mahmoud Sadeghi said it’s too early to assess Trump’s performance, especially since he won unexpectedly.

Sadeghi pointed out that for Iranians, the key concern is how Trump’s election will affect domestic issues, recalling his role in the strike that killed Gen. Soleimani five years ago.

He warned against falling into “self-sanctions” and urged Iran to address the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) rules to fight money laundering.

On regional policy, Sadeghi stressed the need for the government to act wisely to avoid being caught in the Netanyahu-Trump rivalry. He emphasized the importance of seizing every opportunity, no matter how small.

Former MP Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh compared Trump’s return to the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and dismissed the idea that Democrats and Republicans are the same, especially on the nuclear deal.