Biden Advised to Hold Negotiations with Preconditions with Assad

Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) talk with members of US forces in Darbasiya, Syria. (Reuters)
Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) talk with members of US forces in Darbasiya, Syria. (Reuters)
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Biden Advised to Hold Negotiations with Preconditions with Assad

Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) talk with members of US forces in Darbasiya, Syria. (Reuters)
Kurdish fighters from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) talk with members of US forces in Darbasiya, Syria. (Reuters)

Before US President Joe Biden could complete his “Syria team”, Washington was bombarded by demands during its transitional period to opt for a new approach to tackle the war-torn country. Among them is a phased approach with Damascus based on negotiations with president Bashar Assad.

Kurdish romance
So far, among the appointments to the team is Brett McGurk, who has been selected as coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa at the National Security Council. McGurk was previously described by Ankara as the new Lawrence of Arabia due to his sympathy with the Kurds in their plight against Turkey. In fact, one of the main reasons that prompted his resignation from the previous administration was Donald Trump’s “abandonment” of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces – Washington’s key ally in the fight against ISIS – when he declared that he was pulling out American troops from Syria.

McGurk will be joined by Zahra Bell, who was in charge of facilitating inter-Kurdish Syrian dialogue to boost stability in the region, which boasts some 500 American soldiers, who in turn support 100,000 SDF fighters. The SDF controls a fourth of Syria’s territory and about 80 percent of its resources, making it a valuable asset for Washington in negotiations with Moscow, Tehran, Damascus and Ankara.

Questions remain over who will be named US special representative for Syria to succeed James Jeffery and Joel Rayburn. Questions have also been raised as to whether the Syria file will be handled by the National Security Council or whether the Secretary of State will adopt a more hands-on approach, like the one taken by Mike Pompeo and his team. Pompeo advocated the “maximum pressure” economic, political and military policy against Damascus and pushed for its continued political Arab and western isolation.

On the margin
There appears to be consensus that the Syrian conflict will not be high on Biden’s list of priorities. The new administration appears to be focused on the strained ties with Russia and efforts to return to the Iran nuclear deal.

Even though Syria will likely to remain on the margin, numerous articles, researches and studies have been published, suggesting a new American approach to the conflict. Former US Ambassador to Damascus Robert Ford was among the first to declare that the US policy in Syria had “failed” in achieving it declared goals. Writing to Foreign Policy, he said that it has only succeeded in the fight against ISIS. He suggested that Washington cooperate with Russia and Turkey in Syria even though those two countries often go it alone in tackling several issues in the conflict.

Meanwhile, Lebanese, Syrian and western figures appealed to Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron to lift sanctions against Damascus. In a letter to the two leaders, they urged them to adopt a new approach.

Former US ambassador Jeffrey Feltman, meanwhile, sprung a surprise by calling for a new American approach in Syria. The official is known for being one of Assad’s fiercest critics, so his article, with Hrair Balian, in Responsible Statescraft raised a few eyebrows when he noted that the Biden administration “has an opportunity to re-evaluate US policy on Syria, prioritizing diplomacy to advance our interests.”

“One of us (Feltman) has been known for years as a strong critic of Syrian president Bashar Assad and Syria’s domestic and external policies. The other (Balian) has been a strong critic of the notion that pressure alone will change what we consider to be problematic behavior,” they added.

Two options
“Our policy differences, especially regarding Assad remain strong, making our joint recommendation that much more significant. Indeed, we agree that, with the exception of confronting the ISIS threat in northeast Syria, US policy since 2011 has failed to produce positive results – and that a pivot is necessary,” they said.

“US interests in Syria include eliminating the threat posed by terrorist groups, preventing the use and proliferation of chemical weapons, and alleviating the suffering of millions of civilians whose lives have been shattered by the combination of war, repression, corruption and sanctions,” they added.

“Current US policy — centered on isolating and sanctioning Syria — has succeeded in crippling the country’s already war-ravaged economy, but it has failed to produce behavioral change … Instead, these policies contributed to Syria’s deepening reliance on Russia and Iran,” they remarked.

“The United States is now confronted with a choice between the current approach, which has succeeded only in contributing to a festering failed state, or a reconceived diplomatic process that aims to develop a detailed framework for engaging the Syrian government on a limited set of concrete and verifiable steps, which, if implemented, will be matched by targeted assistance and sanctions adjustments from the United States and EU,” they stressed.

The Carter Center provided a framework for a phased approach to the conflict. It is based on interviews with US, European, Russian and UN officials, analysts at think tanks and universities, and Syrians from across the country’s multiple political divides. It suggested that Washington exempt efforts to combat COVID-19 in Syria from its sanctions. It also proposed facilitating the rebuilding of civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals and schools, and the gradual easing of American and European sanctions on condition that these steps should not be taken before Damascus makes tangible steps from its end.

Damascus is required to release detained political detainees, ensure the safe and dignified return of refugees to their homes, protect civilians and ensure the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to all regions. It must eliminate all of its chemical weapons arsenal in line with the 2013 agreement, carry out political and security reforms, including demonstrate goodwill at the Geneva talks, and adopt decentralized governance.

No gift to Damascus
Supporters of this approach believe that the majority of countries have years ago abandoned their demand for Assad to step down. And yet, these countries have continued to adopt their policy of pressure and isolation that has failed to achieve any reform.

“The escalating economic crisis, coupled with rising concern over the current trajectory in Syria, may present an opportunity to test an alternative, more pragmatic approach. This would defer resolution of the most contentious issues while focusing instead on a more limited set of reforms in return for reconstruction assistance and sanctions relief. The aim would be to stabilize the current situation in Syria and build some forward momentum for a larger diplomatic process to end the warm” said the report.

“For US and European policymakers, the Syrian government’s human rights record and its close alignment with geopolitical adversaries Russia and Iran make engagement politically hazardous, especially without evidence that it would lead to meaningful concessions. By comparison, continuing to isolate Syria is commonly perceived as a low-cost, low-risk strategy that avoids rewarding the government for crimes committed over the course of the war,” it added.

“The current diplomatic approach is leading nowhere, or worse. While conditions may not yet be in place for productive negotiations, the August 2020 visit by two senior US officials to Damascus to obtain the release of US citizens held in Syria has at least opened the door to explore new avenues for dialogue, possibly on broader issues,” it noted.

Critics of the new approach say that it lacks geopolitical depth, especially in regards to the Iranian and Turkish presence in Syria.



COP29 - How Does $300 Billion Stack up?

A demonstrator sitting on the ground holds a poster during a climate protest in Lisbon, to coincide with the closing of the COP29 Climate Summit Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. (AP)
A demonstrator sitting on the ground holds a poster during a climate protest in Lisbon, to coincide with the closing of the COP29 Climate Summit Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. (AP)
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COP29 - How Does $300 Billion Stack up?

A demonstrator sitting on the ground holds a poster during a climate protest in Lisbon, to coincide with the closing of the COP29 Climate Summit Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. (AP)
A demonstrator sitting on the ground holds a poster during a climate protest in Lisbon, to coincide with the closing of the COP29 Climate Summit Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024. (AP)

Countries agreed at the UN's COP29 climate conference to spend $300 billion on annual climate finance. Here are some ways of understanding what that sum is worth:

MILITARY MIGHT

In 2023, governments around the globe spent $6.7 billion a day on military expenditure, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

That means the $300 billion annual climate finance target equates to 45 days of global military spending.

BURNING OIL

$300 billion is currently the price tag for all the crude oil used by the world in a little over 40 days, according to Reuters calculations based on global crude oil demand of approximately 100 million barrels/day and end-November Brent crude oil prices.

ELON MUSK

According to Forbes, Elon Musk's net worth stood at $321.7 billion in late November. The world's richest man and owner of social media platform X has co-founded more than half a dozen companies, including electric car maker Tesla and rocket producer SpaceX.

STORM DAMAGE

Hurricane Katrina, one of the most devastating and deadliest cyclones in US history, caused $200 billion in damage alone in 2005.

This year's climate-fueled Hurricane Helene could end up costing up to $250 billion in economic losses and damages in the US, according to estimates by AccuWeather. While preliminary estimates by Morningstar DBRS suggest Hurricane Milton, also supercharged by ocean heat, could cost both the insured and uninsured nearly $100 billion.

BEAUTY BUYS

The global luxury goods market is valued at 363 billion euros ($378 billion) in 2024, according to Bain & Company.

COPPER PLATED

The GDP of Chile - the world's largest copper producing country - stood at $335.5 billion in 2023, according to World Bank data.

GREECE'S BAIL OUT

Euro zone countries and the International Monetary Fund spent some 260 billion euros ($271 billion) between 2010 and 2018 on bailing out Greece - the biggest sovereign bailout in economic history.

BRITISH BONDS

Britain's new government needs to borrow more to fund budget plans. Gilt issuance is expected to rise to 296.9 billion pounds ($372.05 billion) for the current financial year.

TECH TALLY

A 10% share of tech giant Microsoft is worth just over $300 billion, according to LSEG data. Meanwhile the market cap for US oil major Chevron stood at $292 billion.

CRYPTO

The annual climate finance target amounts to 75% of the total value of the global market for crypto currency Ether, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency.

Alternatively, 3 million Bitcoin would cover the annual climate finance target as the world's largest cryptocurrency closes in on the $100,000 mark following a rally fueled by Donald Trump winning the Nov. 5 US presidential election.