Iraqi Activists Eye Political Mainstream after Protest Movement Crushed

Iraqi demonstrators take part in ongoing anti-government protests in Nasiriyah, Iraq January 29, 2021. (Reuters)
Iraqi demonstrators take part in ongoing anti-government protests in Nasiriyah, Iraq January 29, 2021. (Reuters)
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Iraqi Activists Eye Political Mainstream after Protest Movement Crushed

Iraqi demonstrators take part in ongoing anti-government protests in Nasiriyah, Iraq January 29, 2021. (Reuters)
Iraqi demonstrators take part in ongoing anti-government protests in Nasiriyah, Iraq January 29, 2021. (Reuters)

Iraqi lawyer Hussein al-Ghorabi said he left his hometown of Nasiriyah four months ago after an armed group threatened him over his political activism.

Now, as he moves around Iraq, he is trying to set up a political party that he and some fellow activists hope will challenge those in power whom they accuse of corruption and ineptitude.

He is one of scores of people from Nasiriyah, the city at the forefront of a mass anti-government uprising in 2019, who have fled after receiving threats.

“We want to change the political class. Protesters have been asking, what can be an alternative to existing political parties? So we started to discuss creating that alternative,” he said.

At least 500 protesters were killed during demonstrations which broke out in October, 2019, over jobs and poor services. Tens of thousands took to the streets calling for the overthrow of Iraq’s ruling elite.

Activists said they were still being targeted by unnamed armed groups, especially in Nasiriyah - the last area of the country where protesters still stage regular rallies - and are worried their participation in elections will be thwarted.

“We face the threat of weapons and militias. How can we freely take part in elections in these conditions?” said Muhannad al-Mansouri, a 34-year-old activist who also fled Nasiriyah.

Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who took over as interim leader after the 2019 uprising toppled the previous government, has vowed to crack down on what he says are criminal armed groups trying to destabilize the country.

Interior Ministry spokesman Major-General Saad Maan said the government was putting into action a plan to secure the safety of voting stations and address people’s complaints of violence and intimidation.

Change from within
Activists who once refused to take part in a political system they say is rigged are now looking to change that system by getting elected to parliament.

Ghorabi wants his Beit Watani (National Home) party to oppose a sectarian power-sharing system put in place after the US invasion in 2003.

It will focus on inclusive nationalism and human rights, he said, in a country that has been torn apart by internecine violence and political repression.

He was in the process of registering the party with Iraq’s election commission, at a cost of 36 million dinars ($25,000), and has around 2,000 members, he told Reuters.

“We want to bring together Iraqis of different backgrounds around a new Iraqi and patriotic identity.”

He hopes to garner votes from protesters and those who boycotted the last general election in 2018 over alleged vote rigging. Kadhimi had vowed to hold early elections in June. Politicians decided to push them back to October.

Ghorabi said his party would only run in a fair vote monitored by the United Nations. Discussions are underway over the involvement of international monitors in October.

Beit Watani rejects alliances with established political figures. It says it will look at joining forces with Imtidad, another Nasiriyah-based party recently founded by prominent opposition figure Alaa al-Rikabi, after the election.

Other parties are emerging which are more open to teaming up with mainstream secular politicians who they believe can help them push through reforms and stamp out corruption.

Mohammed al-Sheikh, 34, joined Al Marhala a few months ago, a party co-founded by advisers of Kadhimi.

Sheikh said it was important to get into parliament, even if that meant aligning with established politicians.

“Since 2003 we’ve had no real opposition in Iraq’s parliament ... If we don’t get into power, we want to be the opposition.”



Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
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Winter Will Hamper, But Not Halt, Israel’s War on Hezbollah in Lebanon

A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)
A destroyed Lebanese village as seen in a photo from Mount Adir in northern Israel. (Reuters)

The ground battles between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon remain intense, with no end in sight for the coming weeks. The arrival of winter will bring weather changes that could slow down operations. but won't stop the fighting.

Experts say that while winter weather, especially rain and fog, can make it harder for fighters and vehicles to move, it has a limited impact on the overall conflict. Air operations, which rely on advanced technology, are less affected.

The region’s mild winter conditions, unlike harsher winters in other countries, will not be a decisive factor in the battle.

Retired General Abdul Rahman Shheitly believes that modern military equipment is designed to work in any weather.

However, he told Asharq Al-Awsat that fog and rain can give both sides an advantage by obscuring visibility, making it harder to spot each other.

This benefits the attacking side, Israel, which has superior technology, while Hezbollah’s movements could be hindered by muddy terrain.

Shheitly also noted that weather affects displaced civilians, which could put pressure on political negotiations to end the conflict.

Retired General Hassan Jouni, former deputy chief of staff of operations in the Lebanese Armed Forces, argued that weather conditions affect the attacker more than the defender. Since Hezbollah is defending its ground, it is less impacted by the cold and rain.

The weather only slightly affects vehicle movement, and does not stop the fighting.

Jouni noted that the region doesn’t experience severe winter weather, so air operations will be unaffected by rain or cold. Modern drones, missiles, and aircraft are designed to function in such conditions, with GPS ensuring precise targeting.

Both Hezbollah and Israel rely heavily on drones. Hezbollah’s drones are noted for their accuracy and ability to avoid Israel’s Iron Dome defense, while Israel uses drones for surveillance and targeted strikes.

More than a year has passed since the conflict began after Hezbollah opened its "support front” for Hamas on October 8, 2023. The fighting, mostly limited to airstrikes during the winter of 2023, escalated with Israel’s ground operation a month ago, though its full goals remain unclear.

As the ground battles continue, Israel seems focused on creating a buffer zone in the South rather than occupying towns. Israel has destroyed over 37 villages to achieve this goal.

The next steps remain uncertain.

Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has stated that the military is preparing for further ground operations in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah remains determined to hold its ground and prevent Israeli advances.