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85% of Syria’s Borders in Hands of Regime’s Enemies and Allies

American and Turkish soldiers walk together during a joint US-Turkey patrol, near Tal Abyad, Syria, September 8, 2019. (Reuters)
American and Turkish soldiers walk together during a joint US-Turkey patrol, near Tal Abyad, Syria, September 8, 2019. (Reuters)
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85% of Syria’s Borders in Hands of Regime’s Enemies and Allies

American and Turkish soldiers walk together during a joint US-Turkey patrol, near Tal Abyad, Syria, September 8, 2019. (Reuters)
American and Turkish soldiers walk together during a joint US-Turkey patrol, near Tal Abyad, Syria, September 8, 2019. (Reuters)

With various foreign forces at play in Syria, the current government effectively only controls 15 percent of its borders with neighboring countries and half of their land crossings, most of which are shared with Lebanon.

For the first time since 2011, the frontlines in Syria hardly shifted in 2020. The country is split between three “regions of influence”. Sixty-five percent of territories are controlled by the regime, with Russian and Iranian backing. The government controls the capital Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, Latakia, Daraa, Tartus and Deir Ezzor.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, control 25 percent of territories that boast the majority of Syria’s gas, oil and water wealth. The Idlib province and cities of Jarablus, Afrin, Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain, all of which are mostly populated by refugees and comprise some 10 percent of Syria, are controlled by Turkish-backed opposition factions.

Illusory control
French researcher Fabrice Balanche said in a report earlier this week that the control of borders is a reflection of sovereignty. “The regime’s scorecard remains nearly blank on that front. The Syrian army controls only 15 percent of the country’s international land borders; the rest are divided between foreign actors,” he said in the report published by the Washington Institute.

“Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias currently control around 20 percent of the country’s borders. Although Syrian customs authorities are officially in charge of the crossings with Iraq (Abu Kamal), Jordan (Nassib), and Lebanon (al-Arida, Jdeidat, al-Jousiyah and al-Dabousiyah), the reality is that true control lies elsewhere,” he stated.

“The Lebanese border is occupied by Hezbollah, which has established bases on the Syrian side (Zabadani, al-Qusayr) from which it dominates the Qalamoun mountainous region. Similarly, Iraqi militias manage both sides of their border from Abu Kamal to al-Tanf. The stranglehold of pro-Iranian forces also extends to several of Syria’s military airports, which often serve as receptacles for Iranian weapons destined for Hezbollah and the Golan Heights frontline with Israel. This situation reveals Syria’s complete integration into the Iranian axis,” he continued.

The government regained control of the Nassib crossing with Jordan in mid-2018 in line with a Russian-American-Jordanian agreement. The deal called for Washington to abandon opposition factions in exchange for a return of the regime and expulsion of Iranian forces from the area. However, Russian-backed factions currently control vast areas near the border with Jordan.

Balanche noted that despite the regime’s reopening of the Nassib crossing “traffic remains very limited today, and the army’s presence in the Daraa province is superficial. To quickly tamp down growing resistance in the area, the regime was forced to sign reconciliation agreements brokered by Russia, leaving local rebels with temporary autonomy and the right to keep light weapons. Ex-rebels have also maintained strong cross-border links via the Jordanian frontier, giving them a potential source of logistical support in the event of a new conflict (and very lucrative smuggling income in the meantime).”

Russian officers deployed at the Hmeimim base recently agreed a new settlement that allows the Syrian army to enter Tafas in western Daraa.

The government controls the illegal and five official border crossings with Lebanon. On the Golan front with Israel, Syria boasts no official crossings. The area is divided by a disengagement line. After 2011, the area fell in the hands of opposition factions. The regime, with Russian support, however, recaptured the area in early 2018.

Proxies and borders
“In 2013, Turkey began construction of a border wall in the Qamishli area, a stronghold of the Syrian Kurds; it has since extended this barrier along the entire northern frontier,” continued Balanche. One objective was to prevent infiltration: first by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group that Ankara regards as its chief domestic enemy and the parent organization of the Kurdish factions that control large parts of north Syria; and later by ISIS, after a wave of extremist terrorist attacks rocked Turkey in 2015.”

“Another objective was to block the flow of additional Syrian refugees into Turkey, where 3.6 million are already being hosted. Individual crossings are still possible via ladders and tunnels, but Turkish police stop most such migrants and bluntly send them back to Syria,” he added.

“In October 2019, Turkey launched a cross-border offensive in the north, spurring American forces to withdraw from most of the territory controlled by the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. Russia then took control of the contact zones between the SDF, Turkey, and its Syrian National Army auxiliaries in accordance with the ceasefire agreement concluded in Sochi that same month. Russian-Turkish patrols replaced US-Turkish patrols on these contact lines to ensure that the SDF withdrew from the Turkish border area,” he said.

“Although (Syrian president Bashar) Assad’s forces have been asked to deploy a few hundred troops along that frontier, their presence is merely symbolic. Russian patrols have since ventured further east, trying to set up a post at al-Malikiyah (Derik in Kurdish) and take control of the crossing with Iraq at Semalka/Peshkhabur, the only land supply route available to American troops in northeast Syria,” Balanche explained.

“In effect, the only portion of the northern border under Assad’s control is the Kasab crossing north of Latakia, and even that has been closed on the Turkish side since 2012,” he noted. From Kasab to the far eastern border, the Syrian side of the frontier is successively controlled as follows:

- By pro-Turkish Turkmen fighters until Khirbet al-Joz
- By the extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham between Jisr al-Shughour and Bab al-Hawa
- By pro-Turkish rebels of the so-called “Syrian National Army” (SNA) up to the Euphrates River
- By the Russian army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) around Kobane
- By the SNA between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain
- By the Russian army and SDF from Ras al-Ain to the Tigris River

From Tehran to Damascus
“All of the northern crossings into Turkey remain closed, and the border wall blocks smuggling activities. This makes Semalka/Peshkhabur the only international window open to the autonomous Kurdish administration. On the Iraqi side of Syria’s eastern border, militias have been in charge of most areas since fall 2017, when the Kurdistan Regional Government lost control over disputed territory between Kirkuk and Sinjar,” stated Balanche.

“Crucially, though, this lost territory did not include Peshkhabur. The SDF control the Syrian side of the border with the support of US troops, but Iranian proxies have prohibited them and other actors from using any other crossing points, partly with the help of Russian diplomatic cooperation,” he said.

“For instance, the official al-Yarubiya border crossing has been closed to UN humanitarian aid ever since Russia vetoed its renewal at the Security Council in December 2019. Another consequence of this decision is that all UN aid to the entire autonomous Kurdish administration must first be sent to Damascus before it can be transferred to the northeast,” he explained.

“The Semalka/Peshkhabur crossing is therefore vital to the autonomous region’s political and economic survival, serving as the only entry point for the numerous NGOs who operate there and provide indispensable support to the local population,” Balanche said. “Yet the Syrian government still considers entry via that crossing to be a crime punishable by up to five years in prison, so NGOs entering the autonomous administration from Iraq must be careful not to conduct any activities in regime-controlled areas.”

The regime’s intransigence on humanitarian issues is likely Assad’s way of trying to reassert at least one aspect of border sovereignty, speculated Balanche.

Open skies
“In addition to ceding most of its land borders to Russia, Turkey, Iran and the United States, the Assad regime has also failed to reestablish control over Syria’s skies and territorial waters,” continued the report. “Its maritime zones are monitored by forces from Russia’s base in Tartus, and most of its airspace is controlled from the Russian base at Hmeimim. Iran relies on Moscow’s air assets for protection from Israeli strikes—a limited safeguard at best, since Russia does not shield Tehran’s more provocative activities such as transferring missiles to Hezbollah or strengthening its positions in the Golan. For its part, the United States maintains an air corridor between the Khabur River and the Iraqi border, where its last ground troops are located.”

“Despite its occasional public declarations about reconquering all of Syria, Damascus seems content to submit to this game of foreign powers and hold limited sovereignty over reduced territory for the long term,” said Balanche. “Even if US troops fully withdraw from the east, the country will remain in the hands of the ‘Astana triumvirate,’ so Assad has little choice in the matter.”

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Sudan War Enters Third Year as Civilians Remain Under Fire

Soldiers arrive in an area recaptured by the Sudanese army south of Khartoum, March 27. (AP)
Soldiers arrive in an area recaptured by the Sudanese army south of Khartoum, March 27. (AP)
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Sudan War Enters Third Year as Civilians Remain Under Fire

Soldiers arrive in an area recaptured by the Sudanese army south of Khartoum, March 27. (AP)
Soldiers arrive in an area recaptured by the Sudanese army south of Khartoum, March 27. (AP)

Sudan’s civil war entered its third year on Monday, with the conflict growing increasingly brutal by the hour. Images of atrocities, summary executions, and ethnically targeted violence flood social media, underscoring a war that has turned into a relentless assault on civilians.

What began as a power struggle between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has morphed into a nationwide catastrophe engulfing every region — north to south, east to west. Field killings are intensifying, and civilians are frequently shot based on their identity, ethnicity, or origin. For many Sudanese, stepping outside or speaking up can be a death sentence.

The violence has not been confined to military targets. According to the United Nations, the war has unfolded in cities, not battlefields, with both sides deeply entrenched in urban zones, directing shelling and airstrikes toward civilian neighborhoods. It’s a war against the people, UN agencies say.

A nation in ruins

The toll is staggering. UN and media reports estimate the war has caused more than $200 billion in economic losses and damaged nearly 60% of Sudan’s infrastructure. More than 60,000 people have been killed, and hundreds of thousands wounded or permanently disabled.

Smoke is seen rising in Khartoum, Sudan, April 15, 2023. (AP)

One-third of the country’s population — roughly 14 million people — has been displaced internally or fled to neighboring countries. The EU has described Sudan’s humanitarian crisis as the worst of the 21st century.

With no political resolution in sight despite recent advances by the army, the suffering continues to deepen. Nearly half of Sudan’s 42 million people now live below the poverty line, and around 20 million face acute hunger, according to UN figures.

Hospitals, schools, bridges, and essential infrastructure have been decimated, leaving a broken nation struggling to survive amid a conflict that shows no sign of ending.

In a grim reflection of the deepening conflict, two nonagenarian men were executed in cold blood in the town of Tayba Al-Hasanab, south of Khartoum, simply for revealing their ethnic identity.

Local sources said Osman Mohamed and his companion, Hasbullah Abu Taqiyya, both originally from western Sudan, were targeted by armed extremists accusing them of “collaborating with the other side.”

The two men were reportedly slaughtered near their homes by militants who accused them of ethnic affiliation with rival factions in the war.

The town lies close to the Tayba military camp, one of the most strategic RSF bases near Jebel Aulia, established before the 2018 fall of Sudan’s Islamist regime. Now, the very identity of residents can serve as a death sentence in a capital divided and terrorized by ethnic violence.

As Sudan’s war enters its third year, fighters on both sides have increasingly turned their weapons on civilians they perceive as “sympathetic” to the enemy. Extremists often refer to those who have not fled their homes or who belong to certain ethnic groups as “social incubators” for the opposing side.

In some cases, all it takes is a question — “What is your tribe?” — or a glance at someone’s facial features for them to be executed without trial.

Instead of offering safety, militants have overrun Khartoum, unleashing waves of retaliatory violence on already traumatized communities. Bullets aimed at heads and hearts leave no room for mercy — just swift executions under the pretext of “collaboration”.

Supporters of the Sudanese armed popular resistance, which backs the army, ride on trucks in Gedaref in eastern Sudan on March 3, 2024. (AFP)

Industrial sector near collapse

Sudan has lost a quarter of its capital stock and seen the near-total collapse of its industrial sector as war grinds into a third year, a leading economist told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Abdel Azim Al-Amawi, an economic adviser and head of market research at Gulf-based “Aswaq Al-Mal", said the war has caused devastating damage across political, social, and economic fronts. Key infrastructure — including roads, bridges, airports, factories, and development projects — has been severely damaged or destroyed.

“The continued conflict has led to the loss of about 25% of Sudan’s capital reserves,” Al-Amawi said, adding that macroeconomic indicators have sharply deteriorated. Sudan’s economy contracted by 37.5% in the first year of war, the fiscal deficit surged to 9.1% of GDP, and annual inflation soared to 245%, according to his estimates.

Al-Amawi noted that Sudan’s economy is largely dependent on the services sector, which makes up 46.3% of GDP, followed by agriculture at 32.7% and industry at 21%. “The industrial sector is heavily concentrated in Khartoum, accounting for 85% of its activity,” he said.

“With the capital’s factories either damaged or destroyed, the industrial base has effectively collapsed.”

The destruction underscores the broader economic freefall facing Sudan, where businesses are shuttered, investment has evaporated, and millions are displaced with little hope of recovery in sight.

Sudan’s already fragile energy and agriculture sectors have been pushed to the brink by war, with the country now relying entirely on fuel imports and facing a steep drop in food production.

Al-Amawi told Asharq Al-Awsat that Sudan previously met 30% of its fuel needs through domestic production, while importing the remaining 70%.

But since the outbreak of war, repeated airstrikes have destroyed the Al-Jaili refinery north of Khartoum — the country’s largest, which once produced 3,800 tons of diesel, 2,700 tons of petrol, and 800 tons of cooking gas per day.

“With the refinery offline, Sudan now imports 100% of its petroleum needs, putting immense pressure on already strained foreign currency reserves,” Al-Amawi explained.

The war has also taken a heavy toll on agriculture, with grain production falling by 46% compared to pre-war levels and 41% below the five-year average. The 2023/2024 harvest saw sorghum output drop by 42% and millet by 64%, worsening an already dire food security crisis.

According to Al-Amawi, 14 million people have been displaced by the conflict, and around 1.7 million have fled the country — making Sudan home to the world’s largest displacement crisis.

Sudanese Children suffering from malnutrition are treated at an MSF clinic in Metche Camp, Chad, near the Sudanese border, April 6, 2024. (AP)

Currency in freefall, revenues dry up

The Sudanese pound has collapsed under the weight of war. Al-Amawi said the currency lost 74% of its value in the first year of the conflict and continued its slide in 2024, reaching an 81% devaluation. As of 2025, the US dollar is trading at 2,107 Sudanese pounds on the parallel market.

“The war has crippled the economy, wiping out 85% of government revenues,” Al-Amawi said. “Sudan has shifted into a full-scale war economy, with an unregulated shadow economy expanding across much of the country.”

With infrastructure in ruins, state revenues gutted, and basic services collapsing, Sudan’s economic future — like its political one — remains dangerously uncertain.

Agricultural backbone crumbling

Sudan’s once-critical agricultural sector — the backbone of its economy and primary source of employment — has suffered a 65% collapse since war broke out, with supply chains severed, farmers displaced, and two consecutive planting seasons lost, a leading economist has said.

Omer Sid Ahmed, writing in a commentary on the Sudanese news site “Al-Rakoba,” said the sector, which employs around 80% of the workforce and contributes 32.7% to GDP, is facing near-total disruption.

Fuel, seed, and fertilizer shortages have deepened the crisis, and the upcoming agricultural season is already under threat due to continued insecurity and logistical paralysis.

“Farmers have been displaced from their land, supply routes are no longer operational, and inputs are unavailable,” Sid Ahmed wrote. “The sector has been devastated.”

While he estimated agricultural and infrastructure losses could reach $100 billion by the end of 2024, media reports suggest overall war-related losses now exceed $200 billion.

“With war still raging and infrastructure continuing to be destroyed, calculating the true cost is nearly impossible,” Sid Ahmed said. “The damage is not static — it is escalating day by day.”

Sudan’s agricultural collapse has exacerbated an already dire humanitarian crisis, with food insecurity surging and millions relying on aid, much of which is unable to reach conflict-hit regions.

Health system in collapse as hospitals targeted

Sudan’s health system is buckling under the weight of war, with more than two-thirds of hospitals and health centers out of service and medical infrastructure repeatedly targeted by shelling and occupation, according to the country’s acting health minister.

Dr. Haitham Mohamed Ibrahim told Asharq Al-Awsat that 70% of public and private medical facilities in Khartoum, Darfur, Kordofan, Gezira, Sennar and parts of the Nile states are no longer operational. The collapse has created what he described as an “unprecedented health crisis.”

The minister accused the RSF of launching repeated attacks on hospitals. In El Fasher, the main city in North Darfur, hospitals have reportedly been struck more than 15 times.

Ibrahim also said the country’s main public health laboratory in Khartoum was bombed and later converted into a military base in the early days of the conflict. Specialized medical centers have also been destroyed or looted.

He estimated damages to the health sector at more than $11 billion, as doctors flee, medical supplies run dry, and critical services grind to a halt.

Aid agencies have warned that millions are now without access to basic healthcare, while disease outbreaks are spreading rapidly in displacement camps amid poor sanitation and shortages of medicine.

More than 60 doctors and medical staff have been killed since Sudan's civil war erupted, including seven dialysis specialists who were treating patients when they came under attack, said Ibrahim.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the RSF was responsible for the deaths, accusing it of targeting healthcare workers in areas under its control. He said the war has triggered a mass exodus of doctors abroad, leaving hospitals critically understaffed.

Students are seen in Port Sudan on December 28. (AFP)

“The shortage of medical personnel is severe,” he warned, noting that many have sought refuge outside the country amid growing insecurity.

Despite the grim toll, Ibrahim said Sudanese doctors had received recognition from the Arab Health Ministers Council, which awarded the “Arab Doctor” prize to a Sudanese physician in honor of the profession’s sacrifices during the war.

The minister also warned that widespread destruction of health facilities and environmental degradation have contributed to the rapid spread of disease. Outbreaks of malaria, dengue fever, and cholera have taken hold in displacement camps and conflict-affected areas, killing tens of thousands, he stressed.

Health experts say Sudan is now facing one of the worst public health crises in its history, with millions lacking access to clean water, vaccines, or emergency care.

Schools turned into barracks as war devastates education

The war has devastated the country’s education system, forcing millions of children out of school, with thousands of facilities either destroyed, occupied by fighters, or repurposed as shelters — and in some cases, even as makeshift cemeteries.

“This war is a catastrophe that has struck at the very foundation of education in Sudan,” said Sami Al-Baqir, spokesperson for the Teachers’ Committee, an independent union, in comments to Asharq Al-Awsat.

He said there are no comprehensive figures on the total damage, but estimates indicate that up to 20,000 schools have been either partially or completely affected by the conflict. Before the war, Sudan had around 12 million school-aged children. Now, between 6 and 7 million have been out of school for the entire duration of the two-year conflict. Fewer than 4 million have managed to continue their studies, he added.

“Some schools have been turned into military barracks, others bombed, and many transformed into shelters for displaced families. Tragically, some have even been used as mass graves,” Al-Baqir said. “This is destruction beyond Sudan’s capacity to recover from in the near future.”

He also warned of a looming educational and social divide, as schools remain operational only in areas controlled by the army. “I fear the fragmentation of the Sudanese national identity,” he said, referring to the 2024 national exams, which were held only in government-controlled zones.

According to Al-Baqir, only 200,000 out of 570,000 students who were expected to sit for the Sudanese certificate exam were able to do so. “The future of those left behind is already slipping away,” he said.