Lebanon’s Bassil Eager to Take Part in Pope’s Reception in Baghdad

Head of the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement MP Gebran Bassil. (Reuters)
Head of the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement MP Gebran Bassil. (Reuters)
TT

Lebanon’s Bassil Eager to Take Part in Pope’s Reception in Baghdad

Head of the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement MP Gebran Bassil. (Reuters)
Head of the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement MP Gebran Bassil. (Reuters)

Head of the Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement MP Gebran Bassil is reportedly eager to travel to Iraq to take part in the reception for Pope Francis I as he pays a historic visit to the country on Friday.

Bassil is seeking to represent the FPM at the reception, but the Iraqi leadership has refrained from inviting him because it wants to commit to the protocols of the visit and refuses to become embroiled in inter-Lebanese disputes.

Only senior Iraqi politicians and religious figures will take part in the welcome.

Informed Lebanese political sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Bassil had indeed sent a request to Iraq “to test the waters” and determine whether he would be invited to attend.

The Iraqi government, in adhering to the protocols, did not invite foreign officials to join the reception, said the sources.

They added, however, that the government’s dismissal of the request goes beyond just sticking to protocol. They explained that Baghdad wanted to avoid any embarrassment in Lebanon and does not want any party to exploit the pope’s visit for political gain given the sharp divisions in the country.

Moreover, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, has since he was sworn in office, been adopting a balanced policy in its Arab relations. This has been evident in his openness to Arab countries, starting with the Gulf, in contrast to his predecessors, who have always been quick to join the “deterrence front” led by Iran, said the sources.

The same balanced approach applies to Lebanon, they continued. This therefore, demands that the pontiff’s visit be kept away from inter-Lebanese disputes and preventing any Lebanese side from exploiting it to make gains against rivals.

Lebanon is mired in an unprecedented political and economic crisis. Its currency and banking systems have collapsed, it is still suffering from the fallout of the devastating explosion at Beirut port on August 4 and politicians have for months been bickering over the formation of a government that must approve much-needed reforms.

President Michel Aoun, Bassil’s father-in-law, has tussled for weeks with Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri over the formation process, even as services and living conditions continue to deteriorate in Lebanon and people slip further into poverty.

The sources said that Kadhimi is keen on adopting a policy of “positive neutrality” when it comes to Lebanon. The PM has suggested that Lebanese parties resolve their crisis by implementing the initiative proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Bassil’s presence in Iraq to welcome the pope would therefore, contradict with the above position.

Furthermore, the sources said that Lebanese leaderships were aware of Bassil’s intention to head to Baghdad and the reasons why the federal government has distanced itself from him.

They credited Iraqi authorities for being aware that Bassil would employ his visit for political gain in Lebanon. They suspected that he would have used it to portray himself as a protector of Christians in the region, which goes against the very purpose of the pope’s visit.

The pontiff will meet in Iraq with leaders of various religions, highlighting the country’s diversity and acting as a form of response to the heinous crimes committed in the name of religion by the terrorist ISIS group.

The sources wondered whether Iraq refrained from inviting Bassil due to the sanctions imposed against him by the United States due to his alliance with the Iran-backed Hezbollah party, which, according to many Gulf countries, has played a direct part in destabilizing the region.

They also wondered if it has anything to do with Bassil’s poor relations with France, which blames him for obstructing the implementation of its Lebanon initiative.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.