Two Years after Losing Baghouz, ISIS Regroups in Deserts, Caves

Smoke rises in the village of Baghouz in northeastern Syria, after an airstrike staged by the US-led International Coalition on March 3, 2019. (AFP)
Smoke rises in the village of Baghouz in northeastern Syria, after an airstrike staged by the US-led International Coalition on March 3, 2019. (AFP)
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Two Years after Losing Baghouz, ISIS Regroups in Deserts, Caves

Smoke rises in the village of Baghouz in northeastern Syria, after an airstrike staged by the US-led International Coalition on March 3, 2019. (AFP)
Smoke rises in the village of Baghouz in northeastern Syria, after an airstrike staged by the US-led International Coalition on March 3, 2019. (AFP)

It was around this time in 2019 that ISIS lost its final holdout in Syria. The terror group fought fiercely but was ultimately defeated and driven out of the eastern village of Baghouz, the last sliver of territory left of a violent “caliphate” that once was the size of the UK.

Two years later, concerns of an ISIS resurgence are increasing. Was the terrorist organization truly defeated? What is the status of its leader, branches and lone wolf recruits?

After crushing ISIS in Baghouz, then US President Donald Trump declared that the organization was “100 percent” defeated.

Trump's claim sparked wide speculation. Many questioned that he might have been quick to boast about the end of ISIS just like President George W. Bush had rushed in 2003 to declare “mission accomplished” in Iraq with the downfall of Saddam Hussein.

Even though Saddam was taken out of the picture, the US found itself sucked into an Iraqi quagmire that cost it the lives of thousands of its soldiers.

The power vacuum left behind by Saddam’s defeat was seized by anti-US armed groups like Iran-linked Shiite militias and Sunni factions dominated by Al-Qaeda.

US withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 enabled Al-Qaeda, through its “Islamic State in Iraq” offshoot, to regain momentum.

The terror group quickly expanded across Iraqi cities and spilled over into neighboring Syria, where chaos that followed the revolution against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad presented a unique opportunity for strategic land grabs.

It is still early to judge if Trump’s declaration of ISIS’ defeat was rushed, especially since the group had officially lost its “caliphate” and was chased into deserts and mountains.

Today, operations staged by ISIS in Syria and Iraq suggest that the group is in the process of reorganizing its ranks in caves and desert stretches, but also go to show that it still hasn’t reached the capacity for leaving its hideouts and overrunning cities.

Although UN estimates place the number of remaining ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq at about 10,000, it is clear that the organization has not yet decided to move to the stage of trying to launch attacks on cities and large towns.

Instead, ISIS is limiting its activity to hit-and-run attacks, bombings and assassinations.

It seems that the terrorist organization is aware that attacking cities and towns is more of a suicide mission than an expansion effort. Russian and US air forces in the region would swiftly eliminate any of its assaulting or retreating units.

While it appears that ISIS in Syria and Iraq is currently still in the process of regrouping, the image of the organization's branches around the world appears somewhat muddled. Some are successful and expanding, while others are incurring heavy losses.

In Libya, ISIS suffered a severe setback in 2017, after it lost the thousands of fighters it had gathered in the city of Sirte, its capital on the coast of the Mediterranean. It fought for seven months but was eventually defeated.

Since then, ISIS's presence has been confined to tiny outposts deep in the southern deserts of the North African nation. Despite managing to stage a series of offensives, these outposts have been weakened greatly.

In Tunisia, ISIS failed in its venture to establish an “emirate” in the southern Ben Gardane region. The group’s activity is currently limited to mountainous areas near borders with Algeria.

In Algeria, security forces managed to eradicate the local ISIS branch, branded “Caliphate Soldiers” in 2014.

In the Sinai Peninsula, ISIS offshoots were faced by a large-scale military campaign by the Egyptian army that targeted the organization’s hideouts. Despite the apparent weakening of ISIS in Sinai, the terrorist group still announces from time to time the killing of people suspected of collaborating with the security forces.



Where Do Trade Talks Stand in the Rush to Avert Higher US Tariffs?

FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
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Where Do Trade Talks Stand in the Rush to Avert Higher US Tariffs?

FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A container is loaded onto a cargo ship while docked at Hai Phong port, after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for many countries, in Hai Phong, Vietnam, April 16, 2025. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo/File Photo

As a Wednesday deadline approaches for steeper US tariffs to hit dozens of economies ranging from the EU to India, trade negotiations with President Donald Trump's administration are coming down to the wire.

The levies taking effect July 9 were announced in April, with the White House citing a lack of "reciprocity" in trade relations. But they were swiftly halted, allowing room for talks.

Days before their reimposition, where do things stand?

EU: 'Ready' for deal

The European Union said it is "ready for a deal" with Washington, with the bloc's trade chief meeting his US counterparts Thursday.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said the EU was targeting an "agreement in principle" when it came to the July 9 cutoff, AFP reported.

With no deal, the US tariff on EU goods doubles from the "baseline" of 10 percent to 20 percent -- with Trump previously threatening a 50 percent level.

Vietnam: A pact with uncertainties

Washington and Hanoi unveiled a trade pact Wednesday with much fanfare and few details, but it allowed Vietnam to avoid Trump's initial 46 percent tariff.

Under the agreement, Vietnamese goods face a minimum 20 percent tariff while products made elsewhere face a 40 percent levy -- a clause to restrict "transshipping" by Chinese groups.

But there remain questions on how the higher levy would apply to products using foreign parts.

There is also a risk that Beijing will adopt retaliatory measures, analysts warned.

Japan: Rice, autos at stake

Despite being a close US ally and major source of foreign investment, Japan might not escape Trump's tariff hike.

Tokyo's trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa has made numerous trips to Washington through the end of June.

But Trump recently criticized what he described as Japan's reluctance to open up further to US rice and auto exports.

"I'm not sure we're going to make a deal," Trump said, adding that the country could pay a tariff of "30 percent, 35 percent, or whatever the number is that we determine."

India: A good position

Indian manufacturers and exporters want to believe they can avoid a 26 percent tariff.

Negotiations between both countries have been going well for weeks, and Trump himself suggested at the end of June that a "very big" agreement was imminent.

Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, said the feedback he received "suggests positive developments." But he maintained that the situation was fluid.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stressed that agriculture and dairy products remain "very big red lines."

South Korea: Muted optimism

Seoul, which is already reeling from US tariffs on steel and autos, wants to avert a sweeping 25 percent levy on its other exports.

Cooperation in shipbuilding could be a bargaining chip, but "at this stage, both sides still haven't clearly defined what exactly they want," said new President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday.

"I can't say with confidence that we'll be able to wrap everything up by July 8," he added.

Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan in the wings

Other Asian economies including Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia, which faces a 49 percent tariff, wait with bated breath.

Indonesia has indicated willingness to boost energy, agriculture and merchandise imports from the United States. Bangladesh meanwhile is proposing to buy Boeing planes and step up imports of US agriculture products.

Taiwan, for whom Washington is a vital security partner, faces a 32 percent duty without a pact.

Although both sides have faced bumps along the way, Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim said "negotiators from both sides are working diligently" to find a path forward.

Switzerland: Hope for delay

Switzerland's government said Washington has acknowledged it was acting in good faith, and assumes its tariff level will remain at 10 percent on July 9 while negotiations continue.

But without a decision by the president as of the end of June, Switzerland did not rule out that levies could still rise to a promised 31 percent.