Syria Proposes Initiative to Confront Turkish, Iranian ‘Infiltration’, Return to Arab Fold

People wearing face masks walk in Damascus, Syria. (EPA)
People wearing face masks walk in Damascus, Syria. (EPA)
TT
20

Syria Proposes Initiative to Confront Turkish, Iranian ‘Infiltration’, Return to Arab Fold

People wearing face masks walk in Damascus, Syria. (EPA)
People wearing face masks walk in Damascus, Syria. (EPA)

An upcoming meeting between Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Baghdad will probably reveal the outcome of Russia’s recent diplomatic push to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League.

It will also reveal the results of Syria’s “Arab depth” proposal, which it submitted to Baghdad, that outlined the steps needed for returning Damascus to the Arab fold and confronting Iran and Turkey’s infiltration of its territories.

Russia had dispatched its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to the region. He held talks with Egyptian officials in Cairo on Monday and had carried out a tour of the Gulf region a month ago. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, had also met with Syria’s President Bashar Assad two days ago and made unannounced visits to Arab countries.

Russia’s position
Moscow has urged Arab countries to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League and to draft an Arab position that would be declared at the League’s next summit, which is set for Algeria. Lavrov had discussed this issue during his visit to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar last month.

Moscow believes that the Syrian presidential elections will serve as a turning point in the course of the country’s ten-year conflict. It has also seen “progress” in the political process as demonstrated in the meetings of the Constitutional Committee in Geneva and frontlines that have remained largely unchanged since March 2020.

Meeting behind closed doors, Russian officials have said that “weakening Iran in Syria demands that Arabs restore their political and economic presence in Damascus.” They have also stressed the need to avert the collapse of the Syrian state due to American and European sanctions that are “suffocating the Syrian people”.

The Russians have therefore, urged Arab countries to offer financial aid to the Syrian government. Moscow has also sought to free some 1 billion dollars belonging to the Syrian government and that have been frozen in Arab banks. The funds will be used in financing the delivery of wheat and oil derivatives to Syria. Moscow has also vowed to offer a 500-million-dollar loan to Damascus as part of measures to avoid the collapse of the Syrian pound.

Russia and Arab countries are aware of the “limits of what they can offer” to Damascus given the legal restrictions imposed by Washington’s Caesar Act and European-American conditions on Syria’s reconstruction.

Arab position
The Arabs are divided over restoring Syria’s membership to the Arab League and normalizing relations with it. Some countries are committed to the need to implement the Geneva declaration and United Nations Security Council 2254 and ensure the withdraw of sectarian and foreign militias from Syria. The first steps in this regard should be taken by Damascus.

Some Arab countries have already reopened their embassies in Damascus, but without appointing ambassadors in what is seen as a test of Syria’s position. Others have reappointed ambassadors, such as Mauritania. Oman has maintained its diplomatic ties with Damascus and their foreign ministers have exchanged visits over the years.

Throughout this situation, one issue is clear: Arab countries are growing increasingly concerned with Turkey’s “infiltration” of northern Syria and Iran’s entrenchment in the country amid the “complete Arab absence from the scene”.

Arabs believe that Syria’s return to the Arab League demands a “collective position” from the chief Arab countries, as well as initiatives on Damascus’ end. The host, Algeria, is hoping for such an achievement to be reached on its territories. On the technical side, Damascus needs to submit a formal request to the League for its membership to be restored.

On the political side, Arab countries are waiting on Damascus to “carry out a series of political steps to implement resolution 2254 and approach the UN-sponsored Constitutional Committee meetings with tangible positivity.” Moreover, it should provide the necessary conditions for the safe return of refugees to their homes.

On the geo-political side, Arab countries expect “tangible steps” from Damascus in easing Iran’s influence in its territories and pulling out sectarian militias. They expect Moscow to take measures that prevent Turkey’s incursions in northern Syria and exert efforts to push the political process forward. Moscow is also expected to respect prior understandings about curbing Iran’s influence.

‘Arab depth’ initiative
Given the above, prominent Syrian figures proposed the “Arab depth” initiative to Arab countries, including Egypt, Jordan and Iraq to bolster their contribution in “finding the best solution that should lead to achieving internal Syrian stability and boost the Arab role.” The figures believe that several Arab countries share Damascus’ keenness in restoring stability in Syria and its fear over the expansion of religious extremism and terrorism in the region. They are also concerned with Turkey and Iran’s growing influence in Syria amid the absence of an effective Arab role.

Should the “Arab depth” initiative truly get off the ground, then it will act as a parallel platform to the Astana process that includes Russia, Turkey and Iran and the new platform that was recently launched by Russia, Turkey and Qatar.

The initiative calls for the release of detainees, encourages the return of refugees with Arab support, urges the establishment of an independent judiciary and hopes for the formation of a new Syrian platform with the Arab League’s sponsorship. It also urges dialogue with the Americans and Russians to ensure the success of the initiative.

Damascus’ position
Damascus believes it can break through the Arab “wall” after finding the door firmly shut against it by the Americans and Europeans. It has received some of the ideas of the initiative during its foreign minister’s recent visit to Muscat, Assad’s meeting with Lavrentiev and security contacts between Syrian and Arab officials.

Damascus has expressed reservations over the speed and “depth” of the conditions it is expected to meet and the “incentives” it is set to receive. On the technical side, two years ago Damascus refused to submit a request to the Arab League to end its suspension, saying at the time: “The Arabs should request to return to Syria, which is a founding member of the organization.”

Politically, Damascus is so far prioritizing its presidential elections, set for mid-May, with Assad expected to claim victory. Some officials have hinted that “political reforms could take place after the polls” and that they would positively deal with the Constitutional Committee. Damascus is also prioritizing its fight against western sanctions and its efforts to improve living conditions for the Syrians by receiving oil shipments from Iran and food from Russia. It is also striking deals with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to receive oil derivatives and grain from northeastern Syria.

Tactically, Damascus is still playing both sides, between Moscow and Tehran, whereby it turns to one whenever it comes under pressure from the other. This strategy is so far working as demonstrated in Lavrov’s recent remarks that “the more Russia pressures Damascus, the more it turns to Iran.”

Geo-politically, Damascus believes that the further Turkey, Iran and Russia expand their influence in Syria and the region, Arab countries will eventually find themselves forced to cooperate with it. The “initiatives” and “incentives” will then flow from Arab capitals, not Damascus.



Iraq Treads a Tightrope to Avoid Spillover from Israel-Iran Conflict 

Iraqi security forces close a bridge leading to the Green Zone where the US Embassy is located, during a protest against Israeli attacks on multiple cities across Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
Iraqi security forces close a bridge leading to the Green Zone where the US Embassy is located, during a protest against Israeli attacks on multiple cities across Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
TT
20

Iraq Treads a Tightrope to Avoid Spillover from Israel-Iran Conflict 

Iraqi security forces close a bridge leading to the Green Zone where the US Embassy is located, during a protest against Israeli attacks on multiple cities across Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)
Iraqi security forces close a bridge leading to the Green Zone where the US Embassy is located, during a protest against Israeli attacks on multiple cities across Iran, in Baghdad, Iraq, Monday, June 16, 2025. (AP)

In Iraqi airspace, Iranian missiles and drones have crossed paths with Israeli warplanes, forcing Baghdad to step up efforts to avoid being drawn into the region's latest conflict.

But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel's closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory.

"There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq," said political analyst Sajad Jiyad.

"Iraqis have a right to be worried," he added.

With warnings of all-out regional war intensifying following Israel's surprise assault on Iran last week, fears are growing over an intervention by Iran-backed Iraqi factions, which have been calling for the withdrawal of US troops deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-ISIS coalition.

A senior Iraqi security official told AFP on condition of anonymity that among pro-Iran actors "everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict."

But Jiyad warned that if the US supports Israel's attacks, it "may lead to pro-Iran elements inside Iraq targeting US troops" or other American interests like the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region.

This could lead to the US and Israel taking retaliatory actions within Iraq, Jiyad added.

Iraq, which has been for years navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles.

In 2020, during US President Donald Trump's first term, Washington killed Iran's esteemed Revolutionary Guards General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.

Most recently, amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iraq was on the brink of being drawn into the conflict after pro-Iran factions launched numerous attacks on US troops in the region, as well as mostly failed attacks on Israel, in support of Palestinians.

Washington retaliated by hitting the armed groups.

In recent days, Baghdad has been working diplomatic channels to prevent the latest violence from spreading onto its turf.

It has called on Washington to prevent Israeli jets from using Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks against Iran.

It also asked Iran not to strike US targets in its territory, and was promised "positive things", according to a senior Iraqi official.

Israel's use of Iraq's airspace has angered pro-Iran groups, who accused US troops of allowing it.

Powerful armed faction Kataib Hezbollah stressed that Iran does not need "military support", but it said that the group is "closely monitoring" the US military in the region.

It warned that if Washington intervenes in the war, the group "will act directly against its interests and bases in the region without hesitation."

A US official urged the Iraqi government to "protect diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel."

"We believe Iraq will be more stable and sovereign by becoming energy independent and distancing itself from Iran's malign influence," the official told AFP, referring to Iraq's dependency on gas imports from Iran.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that Iran-backed groups "continue to engage in violent and destabilizing activities in Iraq."

Israel's surprise attack on Iran targeted military and nuclear facilities and killed many top commanders and atomic scientists. Iran responded by unleashing barrages of missile strikes on Israel.

Tamer Badawi, an expert on Iraqi armed groups, said "the more Iran struggles to sustain its firepower against Israel, the likelier it becomes that Iraqi paramilitary actors will be drawn in."

For now, "Iran is trying to avoid collateral damage to its network by keeping its regional allies on standby. But this posture could shift," he added.

Before launching its attack on Iran, Israel had badly hit Tehran's proxies in the region, significantly weakening some groups, including Lebanon's Hezbollah.

"Beyond attacks within Iraq, Iran-backed Iraqi groups retain the capacity to target Israel from western Iraq using their missile arsenals, as they have done before," Badawi said.

They might also target American interests in Jordan.

But Iraqi officials say they have other plans for their country, which has only recently regained a semblance of stability after decades of devastating conflicts and turmoil.

Iraq is gearing up for its legislative elections in November, which are often marked by heated political wrangling.

For armed groups, elections are a crucial battleground as they strive to secure more seats in parliament.

"Sometimes, the sword must be kept in the sheath, but this does not mean abandoning our weapons," a commander of an armed faction told AFP.

The armed groups will not leave Iran, their "godfather... in the battle alone."