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Ethiopia Demands Bolstering Role of Observers in GERD Talks

This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020, shows an aerial view Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, northwest Ethiopia. (AFP)
This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020, shows an aerial view Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, northwest Ethiopia. (AFP)
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Ethiopia Demands Bolstering Role of Observers in GERD Talks

This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020, shows an aerial view Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, northwest Ethiopia. (AFP)
This handout picture taken on July 20, 2020, shows an aerial view Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River in Guba, northwest Ethiopia. (AFP)

Ethiopia has stressed the need to bolster the role of observers and experts in the years-long stalled negotiations on the controversial mega-dam it is building on the Blue Nile.

Egypt and Sudan are calling for a legally binding agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s (GERD) filling and operation to guarantee their water rights, while Ethiopia refuses to commit to any agreement that limits its capability to develop its resources.

Ethiopian State Minister of Foreign Affairs Redwan Hussein said Friday that the practical way to overcome the dispute over the GERD is to continue and end the trilateral talks between Cairo, Khartoum and Addis Ababa.

According to the Ethiopian News Agency (ENA), Hussein called for bolstering the role of observers and experts to assist the current African Union chair - the Democratic Republic of Congo - to push forward the GERD talks.

He made his remarks during a meeting with ambassadors of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) and Latin American countries in Ethiopia.

Addis Ababa finished in July 2020 the first phase of filling the reservoir, in preparation for its operation, achieving its target of 4.9 billion cubic meters. This year, it targets filling an additional 13.5 billion cubic meters.

The latest round of talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in Kinshasa ended in early April with no progress made.

Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the GERD, which Egypt fears will imperil its supply from the Nile. Sudan is also concerned about the impact on its own water flows.

Egypt’s Foreign Ministry stressed on Thursday Cairo’s readiness to exert the necessary effort to make the negotiations a success.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had previously announced that the second filling of the dam reservoir will go ahead as scheduled in the next rainy season in July/August.

Sudan’s Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas urged parties on Thursday to reach a legally binding agreement to exchange daily information on means of operating the dam to ensure that no party is harmed.

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Hamas Comes Under Pressure in Lebanon

The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
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Hamas Comes Under Pressure in Lebanon

The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)

Relations between Hamas and the Lebanese state have entered a critical phase not seen since the country’s civil war era. In a rare and direct move, Lebanon’s Supreme Defense Council on Friday named Hamas in an official warning, cautioning the group against using Lebanese territories to conduct activities that threaten national security.

The warning follows rocket attacks in March, allegedly launched by Hamas operatives toward Israel from southern Lebanon, and signals a turning point in Beirut’s handling of the longstanding issue of Palestinian arms.

The issue is expected to dominate discussions during the upcoming visit of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to Beirut on May 21. Lebanese authorities are reportedly preparing to demand that Hamas hand over individuals implicated in the rocket attacks.

Hamas officials in Lebanon declined to comment immediately, but sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that an official statement from the group is forthcoming.

Last month, the Lebanese army said it had identified those responsible for the March 22 and 28 rocket launches, revealing a cell composed of Lebanese and Palestinian nationals. Subsequent raids led to several arrests and the seizure of equipment used in the attacks. Security sources later confirmed the detention of three Hamas members - two Palestinians and one Lebanese.

Analysts and insiders believe Hamas now finds itself increasingly isolated in Lebanon. According to Palestinian political analyst Hisham Debassy, the group has little choice but to comply with Lebanese demands, including potentially disarming.

“The Defense Council’s position marks a serious and strategic shift,” said Debassy. “It sends a strong political message not just to Hamas but to any non-state actor operating militarily on Lebanese soil.”

Debassy described Hamas as being at a crossroads. “Either it cooperates with Lebanese authorities by handing over wanted individuals and signaling respect for state sovereignty, or it continues down a path of confrontation, an option that carries significant political and security costs.”

He noted that Hamas currently lacks the internal cohesion and public support to take a defiant stance. Internal divisions have grown between factions aligned with Iran and others favoring political reintegration within the broader Muslim Brotherhood framework.

Political analyst Dr. Qassem Qassir said Hamas’ leadership, based largely in Qatar, remains mindful of Lebanon’s fragile security. “Hamas doesn’t want to endanger Lebanon,” he said, adding that the group is likely to act cautiously given the broader regional context.

Meanwhile, Abbas’ visit is seen as an opportunity to reshape Palestinian-Lebanese relations and advance state authority in Palestinian camps. Lebanese officials are seeking a roadmap, backed by the Palestinian Authority, that could lead to the phased dismantling of weapons in refugee camps, following similar efforts targeting pro-Syrian Palestinian factions in the Bekaa and Naameh regions.

Hamas’ presence in Lebanon had traditionally been limited to social and political activities. But its military footprint began to emerge after a 2022 explosion in the Burj al-Shemali camp. Since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, Hamas’s armed wing has become more active in southern Lebanon, coordinating with Hezbollah in launching attacks on Israel, further complicating its position with Lebanese authorities.