How Did Damascus Handle ‘Russian Advice’ on Constitutional Talks?

A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
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How Did Damascus Handle ‘Russian Advice’ on Constitutional Talks?

A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)

Despite support from Russia and the international community, chances for holding another round of Syrian constitutional talks in Geneva before presidential elections slotted for May 26 in the war-torn Levantine country have gotten even slimmer.

In his meeting with President Bashar al-Assad last week, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev succeeded in prying out approval for the regime delegation in Geneva to engage in a proposal tabled by the UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen.

Although Syrian Constitutional Committee (SCC) Co-Chair Ahmad Kuzbari, who represents the Assad government, wrote back on Pedersen’s draft agreement for promoting progress at the next round of talks, it didn’t provide grounds enough to hold the sixth round of negotiations before elections.

On April 15, Pedersen sent copies of his proposed plan to both Kuzbari and Hadi Albahra, the SCC co-chair from the opposition.

According to the draft agreement, which Asharq Al-Awsat obtained a copy of in both English and Arabic, a five-point plan will be followed to ensure progress in upcoming discussions.

It included testing the SCC’s Small Body, made up of 45 delegates representing the government, opposition, and civil society.

More importantly, Pedersen’s proposal is considered the first UN document that forces a mechanism for drafting the Syrian constitution.

For instance, the envoy’s scheme includes arranging for periodic tripartite meetings between SCC co-chairs Kuzbari and AlBahra and Pedersen with the aim of “strengthening consensus and ensuring the good functioning of the committee.”

Russia, a key regime ally, has backed holding the meetings to strengthen consensus and ensure the proper functioning of the SCC and define constitutional principles in question.

While Moscow is unhappy with the sixth round of talks in Geneva being delayed, it continues to stand firmly on separating the SCC’s work from holding elections.

The Kremlin was betting on a “symbolic” round of talks between 17 and 21 May persuading the rest of the world, especially Arab and European states, to normalize ties with Damascus out of a conviction that the political process is successful, and that the SSC’s work is moving forward.

Even though it recognizes the SCC as the most likely avenue to reach a political settlement for Syria, Russia is backing presidential elections without first drafting a new constitution.

Nevertheless, the regime backer says it would convince Damascus to hold early general or presidential elections according to the new constitution after it is produced.

Oppositely, Western countries are disgruntled with the SCC’s work, and other Arab countries in the region are still calling for prioritizing a political solution and the implementation of UN resolution 2554.



What Might Happen in Israel’s Parliamentary Dissolution Vote?

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
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What Might Happen in Israel’s Parliamentary Dissolution Vote?

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)
Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid takes part in a demonstration against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel June 17, 2023. (Reuters)

Opposition party Yesh Atid has submitted a vote to dissolve the Israeli parliament, known as the Knesset, for June 11, amid rising tensions in the ruling right-wing coalition.

Here are some key facts about the Knesset, the procedure for a dissolution vote, which would lead to an election, and possible scenarios.

KNESSET COMPOSITION

Total seats: 120

Simple majority needed to pass the vote: 61

Current government majority: 8 seats

LEGISLATIVE PROCEDURE

The Yesh Atid motion faces four votes with an absolute majority of the Knesset required in the final stretch to become law, thereby bringing a premature end to the legislature and triggering an election, which must be held within five months of the motion passing.

In practice, if the initial vote passes, the subsequent stages could occur all the same day or take months.

OPPOSITION STRATEGY

A bill to dissolve parliament will only be brought to a vote if Yesh Atid is confident of securing a majority. If not, it can withdraw the motion anytime before June 11, preventing a vote.

ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

Ultra-Orthodox coalition parties could decide to leave the government to protest at its failure to put forward a law granting exemption from military service to ultra-Orthodox men. At the same time, they might refuse to vote for dissolution of parliament, allowing a minority government to continue.

COALITION NUMBERS

The coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has a majority of around 68 seats in parliament, though its size has fluctuated due to internal political shifts.

The two coalition ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, hold 18 seats collectively. If they united with the opposition, they would have enough votes to dissolve parliament and trigger early elections a year ahead of schedule.