How Did Damascus Handle ‘Russian Advice’ on Constitutional Talks?

A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
TT

How Did Damascus Handle ‘Russian Advice’ on Constitutional Talks?

A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)

Despite support from Russia and the international community, chances for holding another round of Syrian constitutional talks in Geneva before presidential elections slotted for May 26 in the war-torn Levantine country have gotten even slimmer.

In his meeting with President Bashar al-Assad last week, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev succeeded in prying out approval for the regime delegation in Geneva to engage in a proposal tabled by the UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen.

Although Syrian Constitutional Committee (SCC) Co-Chair Ahmad Kuzbari, who represents the Assad government, wrote back on Pedersen’s draft agreement for promoting progress at the next round of talks, it didn’t provide grounds enough to hold the sixth round of negotiations before elections.

On April 15, Pedersen sent copies of his proposed plan to both Kuzbari and Hadi Albahra, the SCC co-chair from the opposition.

According to the draft agreement, which Asharq Al-Awsat obtained a copy of in both English and Arabic, a five-point plan will be followed to ensure progress in upcoming discussions.

It included testing the SCC’s Small Body, made up of 45 delegates representing the government, opposition, and civil society.

More importantly, Pedersen’s proposal is considered the first UN document that forces a mechanism for drafting the Syrian constitution.

For instance, the envoy’s scheme includes arranging for periodic tripartite meetings between SCC co-chairs Kuzbari and AlBahra and Pedersen with the aim of “strengthening consensus and ensuring the good functioning of the committee.”

Russia, a key regime ally, has backed holding the meetings to strengthen consensus and ensure the proper functioning of the SCC and define constitutional principles in question.

While Moscow is unhappy with the sixth round of talks in Geneva being delayed, it continues to stand firmly on separating the SCC’s work from holding elections.

The Kremlin was betting on a “symbolic” round of talks between 17 and 21 May persuading the rest of the world, especially Arab and European states, to normalize ties with Damascus out of a conviction that the political process is successful, and that the SSC’s work is moving forward.

Even though it recognizes the SCC as the most likely avenue to reach a political settlement for Syria, Russia is backing presidential elections without first drafting a new constitution.

Nevertheless, the regime backer says it would convince Damascus to hold early general or presidential elections according to the new constitution after it is produced.

Oppositely, Western countries are disgruntled with the SCC’s work, and other Arab countries in the region are still calling for prioritizing a political solution and the implementation of UN resolution 2554.



Reconstruction Studies Begin in Lebanon, Costs Exceed $6 Billion

A man walks past near the rubble of a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon November 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
A man walks past near the rubble of a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon November 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
TT

Reconstruction Studies Begin in Lebanon, Costs Exceed $6 Billion

A man walks past near the rubble of a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon November 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani
A man walks past near the rubble of a building in Beirut's southern suburbs, after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, Lebanon November 29, 2024. REUTERS/Thaier Al-Sudani

As Lebanese return to their ruined cities and villages after the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel, the main question on their minds is: “When will reconstruction begin, and are the funds available, and if so, where will they come from?”

Unlike the aftermath of the 2006 war, which saw funds flow in automatically, the situation now is different.

The international conditions for reconstruction may be tougher, and Lebanon, already struggling with a financial and economic collapse since 2019, will not be able to contribute any funds due to the severity of the recent war.

Former MP Ali Darwish, a close ally of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, said a plan for reconstruction would likely be ready within a week.

The plan will identify the committees to assess damage, the funds for compensation, and whether the South Lebanon Council and Higher Relief Commission will be involved.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Darwish explained that the matter is being discussed with international partners, and more details will emerge soon.

He added that the process is unfolding in stages, beginning with the ceasefire, followed by army deployment, and eventually leading to reconstruction.

To reassure its supporters, many of whom have lost their homes and been displaced, Hezbollah promised before the ceasefire that funds were ready for reconstruction.

Sources close to the group say Iran has set aside $5 billion for the effort, with part of it already available to Hezbollah and the rest arriving soon.

Political analyst Dr. Qassem Qassir, familiar with Hezbollah’s operations, said a reconstruction fund would be created, involving Iran, Arab and Islamic countries, international partners, religious leaders, and Lebanese officials.

He added that preparatory work, including committee formations and studies, has already begun.

However, many affected people are hesitant to start rebuilding, wanting to ensure they will be reimbursed.

Some reports suggest that party-affiliated groups advised not making repairs until damage is properly documented by the relevant committees. Citizens were told to keep invoices so that those who can pay upfront will be reimbursed later.

Ahmad M, 40, from Tyre, told Asharq Al-Awsat he began repairing his damaged home, paying extra to speed up the process. The high costs of staying in a Beirut hotel have become unbearable, and he can no longer wait.

Economist Dr. Mahmoud Jebaii says that accurate estimates of reconstruction costs will depend on specialized committees assessing the damage. He estimates the cost of destruction at $6 billion and economic losses at $7 billion, bringing total losses from the 2024 war to around $13 billion, compared to $9 billion in 2006.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Jebaii explained that the 2024 destruction is much greater due to wider military operations across the south, Bekaa, and Beirut.

About 110,000 housing units were damaged, with 40,000 to 50,000 completely destroyed and 60,000 severely damaged. Additionally, 30 to 40 front-line villages were entirely destroyed.

Jebaii emphasized that Lebanon must create a clear plan for engaging the Arab and international communities, who prefer reconstruction to be managed through them.

This could involve an international conference followed by the creation of a committee to assess the damage and confirm the figures, after which financial support would be provided.

He added that Lebanon’s political system and ability to implement international decisions will be key to advancing reconstruction.