How Did Damascus Handle ‘Russian Advice’ on Constitutional Talks?

A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
TT
20

How Did Damascus Handle ‘Russian Advice’ on Constitutional Talks?

A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)
A man walks near a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on May 3 (AFP)

Despite support from Russia and the international community, chances for holding another round of Syrian constitutional talks in Geneva before presidential elections slotted for May 26 in the war-torn Levantine country have gotten even slimmer.

In his meeting with President Bashar al-Assad last week, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev succeeded in prying out approval for the regime delegation in Geneva to engage in a proposal tabled by the UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen.

Although Syrian Constitutional Committee (SCC) Co-Chair Ahmad Kuzbari, who represents the Assad government, wrote back on Pedersen’s draft agreement for promoting progress at the next round of talks, it didn’t provide grounds enough to hold the sixth round of negotiations before elections.

On April 15, Pedersen sent copies of his proposed plan to both Kuzbari and Hadi Albahra, the SCC co-chair from the opposition.

According to the draft agreement, which Asharq Al-Awsat obtained a copy of in both English and Arabic, a five-point plan will be followed to ensure progress in upcoming discussions.

It included testing the SCC’s Small Body, made up of 45 delegates representing the government, opposition, and civil society.

More importantly, Pedersen’s proposal is considered the first UN document that forces a mechanism for drafting the Syrian constitution.

For instance, the envoy’s scheme includes arranging for periodic tripartite meetings between SCC co-chairs Kuzbari and AlBahra and Pedersen with the aim of “strengthening consensus and ensuring the good functioning of the committee.”

Russia, a key regime ally, has backed holding the meetings to strengthen consensus and ensure the proper functioning of the SCC and define constitutional principles in question.

While Moscow is unhappy with the sixth round of talks in Geneva being delayed, it continues to stand firmly on separating the SCC’s work from holding elections.

The Kremlin was betting on a “symbolic” round of talks between 17 and 21 May persuading the rest of the world, especially Arab and European states, to normalize ties with Damascus out of a conviction that the political process is successful, and that the SSC’s work is moving forward.

Even though it recognizes the SCC as the most likely avenue to reach a political settlement for Syria, Russia is backing presidential elections without first drafting a new constitution.

Nevertheless, the regime backer says it would convince Damascus to hold early general or presidential elections according to the new constitution after it is produced.

Oppositely, Western countries are disgruntled with the SCC’s work, and other Arab countries in the region are still calling for prioritizing a political solution and the implementation of UN resolution 2554.



Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
TT
20

Iran-Israel War: A Lifeline for Netanyahu?

FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)
FILE - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends a ceremony on the eve of Israel's Remembrance Day for fallen soldiers at the Yad LaBanim Memorial in Jerusalem, on April 29, 2025. (Abir Sultan/Pool Photo via AP, File)

The Iran-Israel war has helped strengthen Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu domestically and overseas, just as his grip on power looked vulnerable.

On the eve of launching strikes on Iran, his government looked to be on the verge of collapse, with a drive to conscript ultra-Orthodox Jews threatening to scupper his fragile coalition.

Nearly two years on from Hamas's unprecedented attack in 2023, Netanyahu was under growing domestic criticism for his handling of the war in Gaza, where dozens of hostages remain unaccounted for, said AFP.

Internationally too, he was coming under pressure including from longstanding allies, who since the war with Iran began have gone back to expressing support.

Just days ago, polls were predicting Netanyahu would lose his majority if new elections were held, but now, his fortunes appear to have reversed, and Israelis are seeing in "Bibi" the man of the moment.

– 'Reshape the Middle East' –

For decades, Netanyahu has warned of the risk of a nuclear attack on Israel by Iran -- a fear shared by most Israelis.

Yonatan Freeman, a geopolitics expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said Netanyahu's argument that the pre-emptive strike on Iran was necessary draws "a lot of public support" and that the prime minister has been "greatly strengthened".

Even the opposition has rallied behind him.

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is my political rival, but his decision to strike Iran at this moment in time is the right one," opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote in a Jerusalem Post op-ed.

A poll published Saturday by a conservative Israeli channel showed that 54 percent of respondents expressed confidence in the prime minister.

The public had had time to prepare for the possibility of an offensive against Iran, with Netanyahu repeatedly warning that Israel was fighting for its survival and had an opportunity to "reshape the Middle East."

During tit-for-tat military exchanges last year, Israel launched air raids on targets in Iran in October that are thought to have severely damaged Iranian air defenses.

Israel's then-defense minister Yoav Gallant said the strikes had shifted "the balance of power" and had "weakened" Iran.

"In fact, for the past 20 months, Israelis have been thinking about this (a war with Iran)," said Denis Charbit, a political scientist at Israel's Open University.

Since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Netanyahu has ordered military action in Gaza, against the Iran-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as targets in Syria where long-time leader Bashar al-Assad fell in December last year.

"Netanyahu always wants to dominate the agenda, to be the one who reshuffles the deck himself -- not the one who reacts -- and here he is clearly asserting his Churchillian side, which is, incidentally, his model," Charbit said.

"But depending on the outcome and the duration (of the war), everything could change, and Israelis might turn against Bibi and demand answers."

– Silencing critics –

For now, however, people in Israel see the conflict with Iran as a "necessary war," according to Nitzan Perelman, a researcher specialized in Israel at the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) in France.

"Public opinion supports this war, just as it has supported previous ones," she added.

"It's very useful for Netanyahu because it silences criticism, both inside the country and abroad."

In the weeks ahead of the Iran strikes, international criticism of Netanyahu and Israel's military had reached unprecedented levels.

After more than 55,000 deaths in Gaza, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, and a blockade that has produced famine-like conditions there, Israel has faced growing isolation and the risk of sanctions, while Netanyahu himself is the subject of an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes.

But on Sunday, two days into the war with Iran, the Israeli leader received a phone call from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while Foreign Minister Gideon Saar has held talks with numerous counterparts.

"There's more consensus in Europe in how they see Iran, which is more equal to how Israel sees Iran," explained Freeman from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Tuesday that Israel was doing "the dirty work... for all of us."

The idea that a weakened Iran could lead to regional peace and the emergence of a new Middle East is appealing to the United States and some European countries, according to Freeman.

But for Perelman, "Netanyahu is exploiting the Iranian threat, as he always has."