Wave of Assassinations in Iraq May Force Postponement of Elections

Mourners chant slogans as they march during a funerary procession for renowned anti-government activist Ehab al-Wazni in the city of Karbala on May 9, 2021 following his assassination. (AFP)
Mourners chant slogans as they march during a funerary procession for renowned anti-government activist Ehab al-Wazni in the city of Karbala on May 9, 2021 following his assassination. (AFP)
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Wave of Assassinations in Iraq May Force Postponement of Elections

Mourners chant slogans as they march during a funerary procession for renowned anti-government activist Ehab al-Wazni in the city of Karbala on May 9, 2021 following his assassination. (AFP)
Mourners chant slogans as they march during a funerary procession for renowned anti-government activist Ehab al-Wazni in the city of Karbala on May 9, 2021 following his assassination. (AFP)

The wave of assassinations that has targeted activists in Iraq’s anti-government movement has prompted it to declare a boycott of the upcoming elections, set for October.

The latest assassination victim was Ehab al-Wazni, one of the most prominent faces of the protest movement. He was killed in the city of Karbala on May 9, drawing widespread outrage and condemnation among the protesters.

Ensuing statements of condemnation declared a boycott of the polls, with activists seeking to make their voices heard on the streets rather than the ballots.

Iraqi researchers welcomed the move. Haidar Saeed said that Wazni’s assassination would persuade the “October forces” to refrain from backing the elections.

In contrast, however, the traditional political forces are more determined than ever to hold the elections on time.

As it stands, the elections will be held as scheduled and the traditional powers are on course for victory, dashing popular hopes for radical change in the country.

On the ground, small protests have continued. Last week, protesters in al-Hillah were seen running away from the security forces, which locals said have been ordered to crack down on rallies.

The security forces appeared determined to end the protests with force not seen in the city since the anti-government movement erupted in October 2019.

In a voice recording obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, an activist said that the federal police and security forces chased the protesters to their homes in a bid to quell their movement. Over 35 people were arrested.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, an Iraqi officer said the armed groups have decided to limit the popular anger sparked by Wazni’s killing to Karbala to prevent the development from becoming a spark that lights a broader protest movement.

“The gunmen are ready to open a broader front with the activists. You can say that their list of assassination targets is on the table,” he revealed.

Activists spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat of a sense of fear that has gripped the regions in the central and southern Euphrates regions.

The boycott of the elections stems from the desire to avert more assassinations, they added.

However, leaders of the protest movement confirmed that the boycott is also aimed at postponing the polls.

The leaders have ruled out the possibility of holding the elections amid the current state of instability and the armed groups’ tightening grip over the Shiite population that makes up the bulk of the protest movement.

The officer told Asharq Al-Awsat: “It is no surprise that the government is helpless at the moment. Its sovereign decision-making voice has disappeared and the scene has been left to commanders, who are sympathetic with the armed groups.”

In Karbala, a meeting was held by the protest movement leaders aimed at garnering support from social groups, such as academics and syndicates, in an effort to study the electoral boycott.

Meanwhile, the postponement of the elections may present Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s government with an opportunity to catch its breath after it has been pushed to the side and proven ineffectual in ending the assassinations and holding the perpetrators to account.



Iraq Preoccupied with Potential Broad Israeli Attack

Iraqi PM Mohammed Shi al-Sudani at an emergency national security council meeting. (Iraqi government)
Iraqi PM Mohammed Shi al-Sudani at an emergency national security council meeting. (Iraqi government)
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Iraq Preoccupied with Potential Broad Israeli Attack

Iraqi PM Mohammed Shi al-Sudani at an emergency national security council meeting. (Iraqi government)
Iraqi PM Mohammed Shi al-Sudani at an emergency national security council meeting. (Iraqi government)

Baghdad has been preoccupied this week with serious possibilities that Israel may expand its war on Gaza and Lebanon by striking several targets in Iraq in retaliation to attacks by Iran-backed armed factions.

Concern has been high that Israel may attack government buildings, oil fields and strategic locations, not just the positions of the armed factions that have previously launched attacks against Israel, said sources close to the pro-Iran ruling Coordination Framework.

Media sources have spoken of government speculation that Iraq could come under “300 Israeli attacks”.

The fears in Iraq have been compounded by an Israeli complaint to the United Nations Security Council against seven armed factions and holding Baghdad responsible for the attacks they have carried out against it.

This prompted the government, through the foreign ministry, to send an official letter to the Security Council, UN Secretary-General, Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation in response to the Israeli threats.

The ministry said on Saturday that Iraq is “the cornerstone of stability in the region and world and it is one of the countries that are most committed to the UN Charter.”

“The Zionist entity’s letter to the Security Council is part of a systematic policy aimed at creating claims and excuses in an attempt to expand the conflict in the region.”

It said Iraq has turned to the Security Council out of Iraq’s keenness on the international body carrying out its duty in maintaining international peace and security and the need to rein in the “Zionist aggression in Gaza and Lebanon.”

Moreover, it stressed that Iraq has been keen on exercising restraint when it comes to the use of its airspace to attack a neighboring country.

Israel has used Iraqi airspace to launch attacks against Iran in October.

Iraq underscored the importance of the international community stepping in to “stop this hostile behavior that is a flagrant violation of international law.”

It called for international efforts to stop the Israeli escalation in the region and ensure that international laws and treaties are respected to consolidate security and stability.

Meanwhile, a source close to the Coordination Framework said the main Shiite parties are taking the Israeli threats “very seriously”, urging Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani's government to take “all the necessary measures to avert a potential Israeli strike.”

All leaders of armed factions, as well as Shiite leaders, have taken up alternative locations and are moving under great secrecy, confirming that they have changed the majority of their military positions, said the source.

It also dismissed claims that Israeli jets have overflown Iraq, saying nothing has been confirmed, but not ruling out the possibility, especially since US forces have control over Iraqi skies and Iraq is helpless against stopping these violations.

Iraq had submitted a formal complaint to the UN and Security Council over Israel’s use and violation of its airspace to attack Iran.

Analyst and former diplomat Ghazi Faisal said the pro-Iran armed factions have been gathering their forces in the Sinjar province, which is strategic for Iran’s arms deliveries and logistic support to Syria where attacks can be carried out against American forces and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Sinjar is one of the most important strategic bases for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, he added.

Furthermore, he noted that the armed factions insist on continuing the war against Israel, rejecting government calls for calm and neutrality.

The government’s statements are aimed at delivering a message that it “is not directly responsible for the strategy of these factions,” which follow Iran’s policies.

Iraq has repeatedly said that it refuses for its territory to be used to attack another country, but some observers believe that it may allow Iran to do so should Israel strike.