Will Assad Accept the Russian Draft Constitution after his Reelection?

When Russia presented its draft Syrian constitution in 2016, was it paving the way for saying in late 2020 that the constitutional reform process and the presidential elections of 2012 were two separate paths? Does the consolidation of the three regions of influence and will the reelection of president Bashar Assad revive the Russian draft constitution? What are the presidential privileges that have been discussed?

Statement and constitution
The year 2012 witnessed the approval of the Geneva Communique that called for the formation of the transitional governing authority that includes representatives of the regime and opposition with full executive powers. It also witnessed the referendum on the constitution that bolstered the presidential regime and the authorities of the president of the republic.

After Russia intervened militarily in Syria in 2015, Washington’s position on Assad’s role in the war-torn country changed. It used to demand his immediate stepping down and that he should not be involved in the governing body, before later accepting political transition without Assad. Former US Secretary of State John Kerry had in 2016 abandoned the call for regime change and spoken of an “independent Syria without Assad.” He later accepted the position of his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, who said priority should be given to the constitution, rather than the governing body.

After the issuing of United Nations Security Council resolution 2254 in late 2015, the Russians and Americans agreed to begin its implementation. The resolution expressed support for a Syrian-led political process facilitated by the United Nations which would establish “credible, inclusive and non-sectarian governance” within six months and set a schedule and process for the drafting of a new constitution.

By further terms, the Council expressed support for free and fair elections, pursuant to the new constitution, to be held within 18 months and administered under United Nations supervision, “to the highest international standards” of transparency and accountability, with all Syrians — including members of the diaspora — eligible to participate.

As it turned out, the transitional process as stipulated in the Geneva Communique calls for transferring some privileges of the president to head of the governing transitional body, or rather the amendment of article 23 of the 2012 constitution.

Expanded privileges
The 2012 constitution calls for dividing executive privileges between the president and prime minister. The president has the power to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and ministers; he sets and executes general state policies; he is entitled to hold meetings with the government and request reports; he signs laws approved by parliament and issues laws and decrees.

The president is entitled to declare a state of emergency; he enjoys absolute power over the armed forces in his capacity as commander of these forces; he has the right to dissolve the parliament and can assume the role of the legislative authority should parliament fail to convene or in cases of utmost urgency.

The president is entitled to take urgent measures to confront major imminent dangers facing the state. He is entitled to set up councils and special committees and has the right to hold referendums over important issues.

The prime minister, ministers and lawmakers are answerable to the president, who is entitled to refer them to court should they commit criminal offenses.

The cabinet resigns as soon as the term of the president expires. The independence of the judiciary is ensured by the higher judicial council, which is overseen by the president, who also oversees the Supreme Constitutional Court. The Supreme Constitutional Court does not have the right to review laws that are approved by the president after they are subject to a referendum and accepted.

Russian draft
In March 2016, Russia presented a draft constitution that proposed a presidential system and keeping Assad in power until the end of his term. He would remain commander of the army and other armed factions and could run for another term in office. In return, the prime minister would be granted greater executive authorities and the parliament (People’s Assembly) would be granted greater legislative power.

Assad would further be demanded to abandon his legislative authority and ability to issue laws outside the authority of parliament. He would also abandon his authority over the higher judicial council and Supreme Constitutional Court, whose roles have been amended. In addition, the Russian draft identifies the country as the Republic of Syria rather than the Arab Republic of Syria.

The draft grants the prime minister greater power, while the president still controls the “general direction” of policies and execution of laws. The prime minister, however, would no longer be only answerable to the president, but to the parliament as well. The legislature would be tasked with overseeing the implementation of the government’s policies.

The draft stipulates that the prime minister, ministers and lawmakers are appointed according to proportional representation of all sects and national segments of society.

The draft keeps the president as commander of the armed forces, military and armed factions. It did, however, propose that the armed forces refrain from interfering in politics and stay out of the process of political transition. It said that keeping the military out of political work supports the democratic process and eases its grip over it.

Damascus’ response
Understandably, Damascus and its ally, Tehran, were not happy with the draft at the time. The Syrian government believed that the draft favored Russia’s interests, not Syria’s. Official experts submitted a number of reservations over it. They requested that the president be elected for two consecutive seven-year teams. In other words, as soon as his term ends, Assad would run again for president for another seven-year term, which begins as soon as he wins Thursday’s elections.

Their suggestions also eliminated the rights of the Kurdish people, including their use of the Kurdish and Arabic languages in regions under their control. They also called for eliminating an article in the Russian draft that spoke of the Kurds’ right to form administrative units and local administrations in their regions.

The question remains as to whether Russia would again propose its constitution for Syria after Assad is reelected, amid UN envoy Geir Pedersen’s efforts to resume the work of the Constitutional Committee after the polls and given that the frontlines in Syria have remained effectively unchanged for around a year. Along with the above, reports have said that the Americans and Russians are holding intense talks and there is a possibility that the Americans and Iranians may reach an agreement over Tehran’s nuclear program. Amid all this, Russia is keen on garnering international contributions to the reconstruction of Syria, which has incurred destruction estimated at half a trillion dollars.

Palestinian man Adnan Naghnaghia has been holed up at home for eight days as Israeli forces were carrying out raids, battling armed groups and making arrests in the occupied West Bank, AFP reported on Thursday.

“It's like a prison,” said the 56-year-old father of five, a resident of the Jenin refugee camp in the northern West Bank, an area targeted in a series of major Israeli “counter-terrorism” operations since August 28.

Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967, and its forces regularly make incursions into Palestinian communities, but the current raids as well as comments by Israeli officials mark an escalation, residents say.

As the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza nears its 12th month, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday that Israel must use its “full strength” to combat “the resurgence of terrorism” in the West Bank, which is separated from the Gaza Strip by Israeli territory.

“There is no other option, use all the forces... with full strength,” said Gallant.

The ongoing raids in the northern West Bank have killed 36 Palestinians since last week, according to the Palestinian health ministry. Some of the dead have been claimed by armed factions as members. Israeli forces have also arrested dozens of Palestinians.

In the latest violence, the health ministry said Thursday five people were killed in a strike on a car in the Tubas area south of Jenin, with the army saying it had targeted “armed terrorists.”

The presence of Israeli forces, in their longest operation in decades against Palestinian members in the West Bank, has brought life in Jenin to a standstill, said Naghnaghia.

“They force you to stay inside the house instead of going out and living a normal life.”

Venturing out has become so perilous that Naghnaghia was speaking to an AFP correspondent by phone even though they were both in the Jenin camp, just 600 meters apart.
In the camp’s narrow alleys, armored vehicles and bulldozers have left behind a trail of destruction amid the battles.
Most residents “already left,” seeking safety elsewhere, said Naghnaghia.

‘Exhausted’

Jenin city and the adjacent refugee camp have long been a bastion of Palestinian armed groups fighting against Israel.
While Hamas does not have a strong presence in the West Bank, opinion polls suggest its popularity has grown among Palestinians during the Gaza war, triggered by its October 7 attack on Israel. Other armed factions like Islamic Jihad are particularly active in the northern West Bank.
Years of repeated raids have made Jenin camp residents “experts” at waiting them out, said Naghnaghia who had stocked up food for days.
But now he fears it may not last long enough.
“We plan for two-three days, not one or two weeks,” he said.
On Monday Israeli forces searched the family home where about 20 of Naghnaghia’s relatives including children were staying.
Before they left, he recounted, one of the soldiers fired a shot inside the house, at the ceiling.
The 56-year-old said he did not know why the forces were there.
In Jenin city, 68-year-old Fadwa Dababneh has her groceries delivered to her by an ambulance. Other vehicles have largely disappeared off the streets as gunfire rings out, and many roads have been overturned by bulldozers.
For bottled water, “we arranged with the Red Crescent car, they gave us some,” she said.
Medics treat casualties, but now also deliver food and other basics, or help residents make necessary trips across the city.
One woman, who asked not to be named, told AFP she had to take an ambulance to make it to a routine checkup at a hospital.
“Just look at it - so much destruction, so much devastation. People are really exhausted,” she said.

Shortages

The military operations have forced health professionals to make quick changes to the way they operate. Some, unable to travel home as freely as they used to, are now working 24-hour shifts.
“To leave the hospital now, we need a permit, or we have to coordinate with an ambulance, as the area we’re in is dangerous,” said Moayad Khalifeh, a 29-year-old doctor near the Jenin camp.
He works at Al-Amal, a maternity hospital which has begun taking in wounded from the raids.
“Most of the activity, clashes and blockades happen right at our door,” said Khalifeh.
The hospital’s director, Mohammad al-Ardeh, was unable to reach the facility for a week due to the fighting, instead managing operations by phone, and some staff members have been unable to come to work, he told AFP.

Making matters worse, water supply “has been cut off maybe six or seven times” since last week, and there have been frequent power cuts.
Since the Gaza war began on October 7, Israeli forces or settlers have killed at least 661 Palestinians in the West Bank, according to the Palestinian health ministry.
At least 23 Israelis, including security forces, have been killed in Palestinian attacks in the territory during the same period, according to Israeli officials.

Will Assad Accept the Russian Draft Constitution after his Reelection?