The Cost of Ten Years of Devastating War in Syria

A girl stands amidst the rubble of damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. (Reuters)
A girl stands amidst the rubble of damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. (Reuters)
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The Cost of Ten Years of Devastating War in Syria

A girl stands amidst the rubble of damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. (Reuters)
A girl stands amidst the rubble of damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. (Reuters)

What started as peaceful protests against president Bashar Assad's rule in Syria has spiraled into a decade-old multi-sided conflict that has sucked in neighbors and world powers and caused the largest displacement crisis since World War Two.

As Assad prepares for a fourth term in office, here is a summary of the human and financial cost of the conflict according to data from United Nations bodies, international NGOs and Syrian civil society groups.

THE HUMAN TOLL:
*Death count and detainee estimates:
The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), which has been documenting the war from outside Syria and briefs UN agencies, has documented 227,749 civilians who were killed from March 2011 until now. This figure includes only documented civilian deaths, while researchers estimate another 250,000 combatants from all sides have also been killed.

The figures are broadly in line with estimates by rights groups and UN-commissioned investigators. They say Syrian and Russian bombing and Iran-backed militias were responsible for the bulk of civilian deaths.

Syria's prisons hold tens of thousands of detainees. Many have been arbitrarily detained for participating in peaceful protests or for expressing dissenting political opinion, according to Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International.

SNHR has documented 149,361 political detainees, of whom 101,678 remain missing. Those figures match estimates by groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty.

*Refugees and Displacement:
Half the Syrian population, which stood at 23 million at the start of the conflict, have been forced to flee their homes, UN bodies say.

Of those, 5.5 million are living as refugees in the region, mostly in Turkey, the UN's refugee body UNHCR says. Hundreds of thousands more are scattered across 130 countries, while 6.7 million have been displaced inside the country, including an estimated 2.5 million children.

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND HARDSHIP:
*Losses:
The UN's ESCWA agency estimated physical capital destruction at $117.7 billion and the economic damage in terms of lost GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at $324.5 billion - putting the cost of the conflict at about $442.5 billion.

The report also cites official data which showed by the end of 2018 real GDP had lost 54% of its pre-conflict level.

The World Bank has estimated cumulative GDP losses from 2011 to 2016 at $226 billion and warned that the longer the conflict lasts, the more difficult recovery will be as losses become more persistent over time.

*Battered economy:
Syria's economy is in its worst state since the start of the conflict and economists say the challenge is to stop it deteriorating further. Many industrialists have fled to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan.

In the past year alone, the Syrian pound has lost three quarters of its value while the cost of food and essential items has rocketed by more than 200%, according to the World Bank.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made an already dire situation worse, analysts say.

Syrians have suffered a dramatic reduction in purchasing power and rising levels of debt, leaving millions incapable of putting food on the table and meeting their basic needs.

*Poverty and worsening conditions:
Today, over 13 million Syrians require humanitarian and protection assistance and almost 90% of the population lives in poverty, according to UN and Western relief agencies.

UK based aid group World Vision International said this year a child's life expectancy in Syria has been reduced by 13 years.



Crops Wither in Sudan as Power Cuts Cripple Irrigation

FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
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Crops Wither in Sudan as Power Cuts Cripple Irrigation

FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa
FILED - 27 August 2024, Sudan, Omdurman: Young people walk along a street marked by destruction in Sudan. Photo: Mudathir Hameed/dpa

Hatem Abdelhamid stands amid his once-thriving date palms in northern Sudan, helpless as a prolonged war-driven power outage cripples irrigation, causing devastating crop losses and deepening the country's food crisis.

"I've lost 70 to 75 percent of my crops this year," he said, surveying the dying palms in Tanqasi, a village on the Nile in Sudan's Northern State.

"I'm trying really hard to keep the rest of the crops alive," he told AFP.

Sudan's agricultural sector -- already battered by a two-year conflict and economic crisis -- is now facing another crushing blow from the nationwide power outages.

Since the war between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces began in April 2023, state-run power plants have been repeatedly targeted, suffering severe damage and ultimately leaving farms without water.

Like most Sudanese farms, Abdelhamid's depends on electric-powered irrigation -- but the system has been down "for over two months" due to the blackouts.

Sudan had barely recovered from the devastating 1985 drought and famine when war erupted again in 2023, delivering a fresh blow to the country's agriculture.

Agriculture remains the main source of food and income for 80 percent of the population, according to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Now in its third year, the conflict has plunged more than half the population into acute food insecurity, with famine already taking hold in at least five areas and millions more at risk across conflict-hit regions in the west, center and south.

The war has also devastated infrastructure, killed tens of thousands of people, and displaced 13 million.

A 2024 joint study by the United Nations Development Programme and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) found that nearly a third of rural households have lost irrigation and water access since the war began.

Without electricity to power his irrigation system, Abdelhamid -- like thousands of farmers across the country -- was forced to rely on diesel-powered pumps.

But with fuel scarce and prices now more than 20 times higher than before the war, even that option is out of reach for many.

"I used to spend 10,000 Sudanese pounds (about four euros according to the black market rate) for irrigation each time," said another farmer, Abdelhalim Ahmed.

"Now it costs me 150,000 pounds (around 60 euros) because there is no electricity," he told AFP.

Ahmed said he has lost three consecutive harvests -- including crops like oranges, onions, tomatoes and dates.

With seeds, fertilizers and fuel now barely available, many farmers say they won't be able to replant for the next cycle.

In April, the FAO warned that "below average rainfall" and ongoing instability were closing the window to prevent further deterioration.

A June study by IFPRI also projected Sudan's overall economic output could shrink by as much as 42 percent if the war continues, with the agricultural sector contracting by more than a third.

"Our analysis shows massive income losses across all households and a sharp rise in poverty, especially in rural areas and among women," said Khalid Siddig, a senior research fellow at IFPRI.