The Cost of Ten Years of Devastating War in Syria

A girl stands amidst the rubble of damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. (Reuters)
A girl stands amidst the rubble of damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. (Reuters)
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The Cost of Ten Years of Devastating War in Syria

A girl stands amidst the rubble of damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. (Reuters)
A girl stands amidst the rubble of damaged buildings in the northern Syrian town of al-Bab, Syria, February 28, 2017. (Reuters)

What started as peaceful protests against president Bashar Assad's rule in Syria has spiraled into a decade-old multi-sided conflict that has sucked in neighbors and world powers and caused the largest displacement crisis since World War Two.

As Assad prepares for a fourth term in office, here is a summary of the human and financial cost of the conflict according to data from United Nations bodies, international NGOs and Syrian civil society groups.

THE HUMAN TOLL:
*Death count and detainee estimates:
The Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), which has been documenting the war from outside Syria and briefs UN agencies, has documented 227,749 civilians who were killed from March 2011 until now. This figure includes only documented civilian deaths, while researchers estimate another 250,000 combatants from all sides have also been killed.

The figures are broadly in line with estimates by rights groups and UN-commissioned investigators. They say Syrian and Russian bombing and Iran-backed militias were responsible for the bulk of civilian deaths.

Syria's prisons hold tens of thousands of detainees. Many have been arbitrarily detained for participating in peaceful protests or for expressing dissenting political opinion, according to Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International.

SNHR has documented 149,361 political detainees, of whom 101,678 remain missing. Those figures match estimates by groups such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty.

*Refugees and Displacement:
Half the Syrian population, which stood at 23 million at the start of the conflict, have been forced to flee their homes, UN bodies say.

Of those, 5.5 million are living as refugees in the region, mostly in Turkey, the UN's refugee body UNHCR says. Hundreds of thousands more are scattered across 130 countries, while 6.7 million have been displaced inside the country, including an estimated 2.5 million children.

DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND HARDSHIP:
*Losses:
The UN's ESCWA agency estimated physical capital destruction at $117.7 billion and the economic damage in terms of lost GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at $324.5 billion - putting the cost of the conflict at about $442.5 billion.

The report also cites official data which showed by the end of 2018 real GDP had lost 54% of its pre-conflict level.

The World Bank has estimated cumulative GDP losses from 2011 to 2016 at $226 billion and warned that the longer the conflict lasts, the more difficult recovery will be as losses become more persistent over time.

*Battered economy:
Syria's economy is in its worst state since the start of the conflict and economists say the challenge is to stop it deteriorating further. Many industrialists have fled to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan.

In the past year alone, the Syrian pound has lost three quarters of its value while the cost of food and essential items has rocketed by more than 200%, according to the World Bank.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made an already dire situation worse, analysts say.

Syrians have suffered a dramatic reduction in purchasing power and rising levels of debt, leaving millions incapable of putting food on the table and meeting their basic needs.

*Poverty and worsening conditions:
Today, over 13 million Syrians require humanitarian and protection assistance and almost 90% of the population lives in poverty, according to UN and Western relief agencies.

UK based aid group World Vision International said this year a child's life expectancy in Syria has been reduced by 13 years.



Jenin Camp: A War on People, Not Just Gunmen

Israeli army drops leaflets over Jenin refugee camp (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Israeli army drops leaflets over Jenin refugee camp (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Jenin Camp: A War on People, Not Just Gunmen

Israeli army drops leaflets over Jenin refugee camp (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Israeli army drops leaflets over Jenin refugee camp (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Mahmoud Al-Rakh hesitated before setting foot in the Jenin refugee camp where he was born and raised—now reduced to rubble and a death trap by Israeli forces.

After much deliberation, he finally mustered the courage to enter, slipping in under the cover of a group of journalists who, after lengthy discussions, had also decided to venture inside. They all knew the risks: gunfire, injury, arrest, or even death.

The road leading from Jenin’s famous Cinema Roundabout to the camp’s entrance offered a grim preview of what lay ahead. Near the government hospital at the street’s end, heavily armed Israeli soldiers had turned the camp’s main entrance into a military outpost.

But local residents, camp youths, and journalists advised that there was another way in—through the back of the hospital. What they found inside was nothing short of shocking.

There was no one in Jenin. No authorities, no residents, no fighters. As the saying goes, you could hear a pin drop.

Only Israeli soldiers remained, standing amid the vast rubble—silent witnesses to a history of resilience, battles, lives, and untold stories. They lurked in wait, and it seemed their ultimate vision was to erase Palestinian presence and claim the place as their own.

In the distance, visitors can spot signs planted by Israeli soldiers, bearing Hebrew names like “Yair Axis”—a desperate attempt to impose new identities on the land.

Israel’s campaign was not merely a fight against armed militants. It was a war on the land, the people, history, the present, and even the Palestinian narrative.

Israel’s military assault on the Jenin refugee camp, launched on January 21, marked the beginning of an expanded campaign across the West Bank after officially designating it a war zone.

Dubbed operation “Iron Wall,” the assault signaled a shift in Israel’s approach, drawing clear parallels to its 2002 operation during the Second Intifada, when it swept through the entire West Bank.

The latest offensive began with drone strikes targeting infrastructure in Jenin, followed by a large-scale ground invasion involving special forces, Shin Bet operatives, and military police. Aerial bombardments continued throughout the operation.

Twenty-five days later, Israel had killed 26 Palestinians, wounded dozens, and forcibly displaced all 20,000 residents—every single one.

Asharq Al-Awsat asked journalist Ahmed Al-Shawish about what the Israelis are doing inside the camp now.

He replied that Israeli forces were setting up permanent military outposts in areas inaccessible to us—a confirmation of the defense minister’s earlier statement that they had no plans to withdraw.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally announced the operation, saying it had been approved by the security cabinet as “another step toward achieving our goal: strengthening security in the West Bank.”

He added: “We are systematically and decisively acting against Iran’s axis—whether in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, or the West Bank.”

The decision to attack Jenin had already been made; the timing was the only question.

Israeli leaders waited for the Gaza ceasefire to take hold, then shifted focus to the West Bank three days later.

Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar had advised the security cabinet that broader measures were needed to reshape the situation and eliminate militant groups in the West Bank.

He warned against complacency, arguing that the recent drop in attacks was “misleading and deceptive” and did not reflect the true scale of what he called “the growing terrorist threat on the ground.”