'Starvation on the Way': Border Crossing Decision Weighs on Northwest Syria

A road sign that reads Welcome to Bab al-Hawa crossing is seen at Bab al-Hawa crossing at the Syrian-Turkish border, in Idlib governorate, Syria June 10, 2021. (Reuters)
A road sign that reads Welcome to Bab al-Hawa crossing is seen at Bab al-Hawa crossing at the Syrian-Turkish border, in Idlib governorate, Syria June 10, 2021. (Reuters)
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'Starvation on the Way': Border Crossing Decision Weighs on Northwest Syria

A road sign that reads Welcome to Bab al-Hawa crossing is seen at Bab al-Hawa crossing at the Syrian-Turkish border, in Idlib governorate, Syria June 10, 2021. (Reuters)
A road sign that reads Welcome to Bab al-Hawa crossing is seen at Bab al-Hawa crossing at the Syrian-Turkish border, in Idlib governorate, Syria June 10, 2021. (Reuters)

Hussein Mahmoud, a displaced farmer from Syria's Hama province who now lives in a camp in northern Idlib, divides the basic items in a food basket he receives monthly amongst his wife and 13 children.

By mid-month, the bread, rice, lentils and other essentials he gets as aid are nearly scarce but Mahmoud now fears this little support that has provided a lifeline for his family might end.

"If this food aid stops, where do we go? What do we do?" he said. "Starvation is on the way."

Millions of people living in northwest Syria, many of them displaced from elsewhere in the country's decade-long conflict, face Mahmoud's fate should the United Nations fail to approve an extension to cross-border humanitarian operations this July.

Access for cross-border aid from Turkey was reduced last year to just one crossing point after opposition from Russia and China - permanent Security Council members - to renewing other crossings. A new showdown is likely next month when the operation's mandate must be renewed.

Idlib province, Syria's last rebel stronghold, is home to around 3 million people, more than half of whom depend on food aid.

All of that filters through the Bab al-Hawa crossing where currently around 1,000 UN trucks enter a month through Turkey.

"Right now there is a plan for if no renewal happens and alongside our partner the World Food Program we are stockpiling for three months until the end of September," said Bassil al-Dirri, Idlib area manager for the Turkish Humanitarian Relief Association (IYD).

"But after that there will be nothing."

Surging food prices
President Bashar al-Assad has survived the insurgency against him, and now holds sway over around 70% of the country, helped by Russia's military and Iran's Shiite militias.

But Turkey still controls territory in the northwest and there are growing concerns that Russia, Assad's ally, will veto a decision to keep the crossing open.

Should that happen, UN coordinated aid would have to re-route operations through Damascus.

"I ask all the humanitarians in the world to stand up against Russia to not make this happen," said Abdelsalam al-Youssef, director of Teh displaced camp in northern Idlib.

"There will be a humanitarian catastrophe if it does," he said as he attended a rally on the issue in the camp.

Some in Idlib warn of looming price rises should basic items grow scarce as demand for staples like bread and rice increases and supply remains limited.

"Traditional trade routes can't cope with the needs of the market... so from an economic perspective, there will be an insane increase in prices" Dirri said.

"We are talking about basic items for each family, not luxuries... no family can go on living without them," he said.

Food prices in Syria have jumped by more than 200% in the last year alone, a March assessment by the WFP found.

The study found that a record 12.4 million Syrians, more than 60% of the population, suffer from food insecurity and hunger, double the number of 2018.

Some of the country's poorest and most desperate, having abandoned homes and land to flee war, live in Idlib's squalid camps like Mahmoud.

His family's fate and millions of others now hangs on the July 10 decision.

"We are asking God first and then the authorities to please make this continue for us," he said.



A Call for Peace in Türkiye: What’s in It for Key Actors?

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
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A Call for Peace in Türkiye: What’s in It for Key Actors?

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)

Türkiye’s 40-year battle against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) could be nearing an end after its jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called on the militant group on Thursday to lay down its arms and disband. Ocalan's statement, announced by the opposition pro-Kurdish DEM party that held three recent meetings with the PKK leader at his island prison, comes four months after the idea was first raised by a political ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

There was no immediate response to Ocalan's appeal from the PKK commanders' headquarters in the mountains of northern Iraq.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR ERDOGAN?

Ending the insurgency would be a major achievement for Türkiye’s president after past efforts failed to resolve a conflict in which more than 40,000 people have died since 1984. Erdogan has called it "one of the last obstacles blocking the goal of a great and powerful Türkiye".

Though it remains unclear whether a ceasefire or peace deal could ultimately emerge, Ocalan's call may also boost Erdogan's own political prospects. In order to extend his rule beyond 2028, when his last term as president ends, he would need the support of an opposition party, perhaps DEM, in order to amend the constitution or bring about early elections.

He could also capitalize on military gains against the PKK in mountainous northern Iraq, where it is based, and in Syria, where the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December has led to the establishment of a strongly pro-Türkiye leadership in Damascus. Ocalan's call could prompt the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria to expel members of the PKK-aligned People's Protection Units (YPG), as Ankara has demanded.

ANY RISKS?

There are risks for Erdogan in resurrecting Ocalan, a figure reviled by most Turks, including supporters of his ruling AK Party (AKP).

Mehmet Guner, head of the Martyrs' Families Association for Turkish troops, told Reuters he was "extremely unhappy and very angry" that the government backed Ocalan's public call. "For 40 years, this country has fought against terrorism, sacrificing thousands of martyrs and veterans... We absolutely do not find it appropriate to negotiate with the leader of the terrorists in this manner," he said.

On the Kurdish side, if PKK fighters refuse to heed Ocalan's call and violence continues or even worsens, the distrust that many Turkish Kurds already have for Erdogan could deepen.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR THE KURDS?

The pro-Kurdish political movement, the target of a years-long judicial crackdown, will hope Ocalan's call eventually translates into democratic reforms and greater cultural and language rights for Kurds. A peace deal could also ease social tensions generally across Türkiye, and boost the under-developed economy of its mainly Kurdish southeast. Shortly after one of DEM's meetings with Ocalan in December, Ankara announced a $14 billion regional development plan for the southeast.

"Many Kurds simply do not trust the Turkish state. Any meaningful disarmament process would require concrete steps from Ankara - such as guarantees of political and cultural rights for Kurds - before, not after, a peace deal is made," said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based political analyst.

If DEM continues to cooperate with Erdogan's AKP - reversing years of fierce opposition - it could also seek to have reinstated the many elected mayors that Turkish authorities have removed from positions and replaced with pro-government officials.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SYRIA?

The Syrian Kurdish SDF, a key US ally, is still battling Turkish and Turkish-backed Syrian forces in the border regions. If SDF commander Mazloum Abdi can filter YPG members from his group, the Kurdish forces could more easily join Syria's newly-forming security structure, centralizing and stabilizing the country as it emerges from 13 years of civil war.

"The YPG will likely heed Ocalan if he asks them to play nice with Türkiye, even if some leaders in Qandil (the PKK headquarters in Iraq) advise the group to do otherwise," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

IMPLICATIONS FOR US-TURKISH TIES?

While the United States deems the PKK terrorists, it has been allied with the YPG's umbrella group in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Türkiye has sharply criticized this US stance as a betrayal of a NATO ally.

Steps toward ending the PKK insurgency could "remove the PKK thorn from US-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration," Cagaptay said.

"Removing the PKK from Syria's political landscape would pave the way for Türkiye to cooperate with Washington and the Syrian Kurds on many issues beneficial to US interests, such as containing the ISIS, rebuilding the country, and establishing stable Turkish ties with different Syrian groups," he said.