Will Raisi’s Election Change Iran’s Relations with the Gulf?

Ebrahim Raisi. (AFP)
Ebrahim Raisi. (AFP)
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Will Raisi’s Election Change Iran’s Relations with the Gulf?

Ebrahim Raisi. (AFP)
Ebrahim Raisi. (AFP)

Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi declared on Monday that Tehran values neighboring countries, especially Saudi Arabia.

Speaking at a press conference after winning the elections, he stressed: “We want good relations with all neighboring countries, especially Saudi Arabia.”

Moreover, he said Iran is not opposed to opening embassies with Saudi Arabia or establishing relations with it.

Conservative Iranian media had hailed Raisi’s election as the “birth of a new dawn” in the country, describing turnout as “epic” even though in fact it was the lowest in the history of the republic.

Raisi will be confronted with massive local political, social and economic challenges in a region that is mired in its own problems and complications. Experts predict that Raisi will take Iran further to the right, which will impact the ongoing negotiations in Vienna over its nuclear program.

Kuwaiti academic Dhafer al-Ajami described the Iranian elections as a preparation for the post-Ali Khamenei phase, adding that Raisi was simply a carbon copy of the supreme leader.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he noted that Iran has for 40 years been claiming to extend its hand to Gulf, specifically to Saudi Arabia.

They really do not want to hold serious and effective negotiations, but such claims are used to justify some stances, he added.

The Iranian leadership is really not aware of what the Gulf wants, which is that it cease meddling in its affairs, stop exporting the revolution, quit supporting militias and end the malign objectives of the nuclear program, he explained.

If Iran is ready to meet these demands, then that would be good, but its stubbornness has reached the extent of denying the Gulf the right to protect its regional security, Ajami added.

Raisi’s election is not expected to change Iran’s foreign policy, which is firmly controlled by Khamenei.

Senior researcher at the Gulf Research Center Hesham Alghannam said that his election will at least end the duality in statements coming from Tehran.

Talk of inter-Iranian disputes will end with Raisi’s arrival to power and therefore, dealing with him will be clearer and Iran will have less room to maneuver, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Moreover, he noted that Raisi cannot claim to be incapable of improving ties with Iran’s neighbors.

Iran’s foreign policy and relations with the regional countries will not change much with his arrival, at least not in the beginning, Alghannam predicted.



What Happens Now, after the Death of Pope Francis

Pope Francis waves to the crowd during his weekly general audience at St. Peter's Square in Vatican on May 18, 2016. (AFP)
Pope Francis waves to the crowd during his weekly general audience at St. Peter's Square in Vatican on May 18, 2016. (AFP)
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What Happens Now, after the Death of Pope Francis

Pope Francis waves to the crowd during his weekly general audience at St. Peter's Square in Vatican on May 18, 2016. (AFP)
Pope Francis waves to the crowd during his weekly general audience at St. Peter's Square in Vatican on May 18, 2016. (AFP)

Here is what happens next in the Roman Catholic Church following the death of Pope Francis, which was announced by the Vatican on Monday. The rituals mark the end of one papacy and the start of the next:

* The pope's camerlengo (chamberlain), Cardinal Kevin Farrell, officially confirms the death. He then seals the pope's private apartment and prepares the funeral.

* The camerlengo and three assistants decide when the pope's coffin will be taken into St. Peter's Basilica for public viewing. They also make sure the pope's "Fisherman's Ring" and his lead seal are broken so they cannot be used by anyone else. No autopsy is performed.

* Mourning rites last nine days, with the date of the funeral and burial to be decided by the cardinals. The funeral would normally be held four to six days after the death, in St. Peter's Square. Francis had said that unlike many predecessors, he would not be laid to rest in the crypt of St. Peter's Basilica, but in Rome's St. Mary Major Basilica. He also asked to be buried in a simple wooden casket.

* The College of Cardinals oversees day-to-day business during the interregnum. They have limited power and much of the central Church administration grinds to a halt.

* The conclave to elect a new pope starts in the Vatican's Sistine Chapel between 15 and 20 days after the death. The cardinals, who are confined to the Vatican for the duration of the conclave, decide the exact day.

* All cardinals under the age of 80 can take part in the secret ballot. They need a majority of at least two-thirds plus one to elect the new pope, so the voting can take several rounds spread over numerous days. When the election is concluded, the new pope is asked if he accepts and what name he wishes to take.

* The world learns a pope has been elected when an official burns the paper ballots with special chemicals to make white smoke pour from the chapel's chimney. They use other chemicals to make black smoke indicating an inconclusive vote.

* The dean of the College of Cardinals steps onto the central balcony of St. Peter's Basilica to announce "Habemus Papam" (We have a pope). The new pope then appears and gives the crowd in the square his blessing.