Egypt's Private Sector Activity Edges Close to Growth

A general view of buildings by the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt July 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
A general view of buildings by the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt July 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
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Egypt's Private Sector Activity Edges Close to Growth

A general view of buildings by the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt July 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
A general view of buildings by the Nile River in Cairo, Egypt July 2, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity neared growth territory in June as new business expanded for the first time in seven months amid easing COVID-19 measures, a survey showed on Tuesday.

IHS Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) climbed to 49.9, up from 48.6 in May and just below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction.

“Firms often noted a rise in tourist numbers as foreign travel opened up, as well as an improvement in export orders,” IHS Markit said, Reuters reported.

Output and new orders increased for the first time since November 2020, with both subindexes registering 50.2, up from 47.9 and 47.7 in May, respectively.

The non-oil private sector as a whole began contracting in December, ending a three-month expansion, as a resurgence in coronavirus cases dampened demand.

Inflation in input costs continued to accelerate in June, with the input prices subindex rising to a nearly two-year high of 55.9, compared to 55.2 in May.

“Commodity prices, particularly metals and plastics, drove a steep increase in purchasing costs,” said IHS Markit economist David Owen.

Firms again chose to absorb increasing cost burdens rather than passing them on to customers, as the increase in output prices slowed to a three-month low of 51.0.

Employment continued to fall, but at the softest rate since March, up to 48.7 from 48.3 in May. Many firms chose not to replace voluntary leavers, though this was partly offset by an uptick in hires due to rising demand.

“It was the Employment Index that held back the headline figure as job numbers continued to fall overall,” Owen said.

Expectations for future output remained strong, easing to 74.1 after soaring to 79.1 in May.



Morocco Farmers Saw Hope in Rain, but Mideast War Inflates Production Costs

A farmer works in his wheat field in the Sebt Meghchouch region of Morocco, on April 28, 2026. (Photo by Abdel Majid BZIOUAT / AFP)
A farmer works in his wheat field in the Sebt Meghchouch region of Morocco, on April 28, 2026. (Photo by Abdel Majid BZIOUAT / AFP)
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Morocco Farmers Saw Hope in Rain, but Mideast War Inflates Production Costs

A farmer works in his wheat field in the Sebt Meghchouch region of Morocco, on April 28, 2026. (Photo by Abdel Majid BZIOUAT / AFP)
A farmer works in his wheat field in the Sebt Meghchouch region of Morocco, on April 28, 2026. (Photo by Abdel Majid BZIOUAT / AFP)

Like many Moroccan farmers, Mehdi el-Maazi was hopeful that rare heavy rains would yield an abundant harvest this year -- but those hopes were quickly shattered as the Middle East war sent fuel and fertilizer costs soaring.

Morocco, where agriculture employs about a quarter of the working population and where drought had persisted for seven consecutive years, recorded massive rainfalls last February and December.

Across the rural region of Marchouch, about 70 kilometres (43 miles) south of Rabat, landscapes that had long been parched have turned green again, and farmers have taken back to working their fields.

Following the rains this winter, the country expected a strong cereal harvest, with output estimated to reach nearly nine million tonnes -- more than double last year's. Overall agricultural output was also set to rise by about 15 percent from last season.

But the war in the Middle East, which began in late February, has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, not only sending global energy markets into a tailspin but also choking fertilizer supplies.

Prior to the war, Maazi would normally spend around 1,200 dirhams ($130) per hectare on diesel to run his tractor. Now, he said, the cost has climbed to 1,800 dirhams.

"We were happy at first about the arrival of the rain," said the 32-year-old lentil farmer. "But with the increase in diesel prices, everything changed."

Farmers also say higher fuel prices are driving up the cost of nearly everything needed to produce crops.

Abdelkader Toukati, another farmer in the area, said he hoped "the price of diesel will fall before the beginning of the harvest season".

High prices have meant that workers' wages have also risen and even "the cost of renting harvesting machines doubled", Toukati added.

Abdelaziz Drissi, who rents out agricultural machinery, also complained that there was little to no financial reward.

"There is no longer any profit," he said. "We are only working to pay for fuel."

Rising energy costs have had a direct impact on key farming supplies, driving up prices for seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and animal feed.

Livestock breeder Abdessadaq el-Fayd said grain feed prices had sharply risen in recent months.

"We used to buy it for 90 dirhams" per sack, he said. "Today, it costs 110 to 120 dirhams."

A recent report by the kingdom's High Commission for Planning projected economic growth of five percent in the first quarter of 2026, up from 4.1 percent in the previous quarter, driven in part by agricultural activity.

In an effort to alleviate rising costs, the Moroccan government in March announced aid for transport operators.

And last month, Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch pledged to "improve distribution chains so that prices remain at a reasonable level".

But farmers interviewed by AFP said the measures have yet to rein in prices.

Rachid Benali, president of the Moroccan Confederation of Agriculture and Rural Development, said the price hikes "mainly concern fuels and nitrogen fertilizers".

But while the high costs "will have no impact on either volume or quality" of harvests, they "will automatically be reflected" in produce prices at markets, he added.


Dollar Nears Six-week High; Mixed Signals on US-Iran Deal Feed Uncertainty

US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
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Dollar Nears Six-week High; Mixed Signals on US-Iran Deal Feed Uncertainty

US dollar banknotes (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes (Reuters)

The dollar traded near six-week highs on Friday, after conflicting signals over a US-Iran peace deal whipped up volatility across financial markets, though investors latched on to hopes of some progress. Washington and Tehran stuck to opposing stances over the latter's uranium stockpile and control of the Strait of Hormuz, although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been "some good signs" in talks. The dollar rose 0.17% against a basket of six major currencies to 99.37, just shy of six-week highs.

The euro, which was headed for a second weekly loss, was down 0.2% on the day at $1.1594, while the pound was slightly lower at $1.342, having shrugged off data earlier that showed retail sales dropped by the most in nearly a year in April, as consumers felt the pinch of the inflationary effects of the Iran war. The dollar found additional support from US data, which showed weekly jobless claims fell last week while manufacturing activity rose to a four-year high in May, underscoring resilience in the world's largest economy.

"We're coming to the end of week 12, we're six weeks in the ceasefire, and I'm just not really that convinced we're any closer to a resolution between the US and Iran," Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said of the Middle East war.

"I still feel like the risks are for the US dollar to go higher, because I really just don't see a way out of this situation in the Middle East without them sort of needing to be more forceful."

The US dollar's strength and persistently high oil prices have spelled pain for the yen, which on Friday struggled on the weaker side of 159 per dollar. It was 0.1% lower at 159.09 per dollar. The yen is teetering even after likely intervention from Tokyo just weeks ago to support it. It has given up nearly 75% of its gains from the presumed intervention, which has left traders on alert for further moves by Japanese authorities.

"It's just buying time, really. What they need is a change in fundamentals, and I think the best thing that could happen is a quick deal to end the Iran conflict," said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at MUFG.

"I don't think you'd see dollar/yen drop too sharply from here, but even if it just got back down into the mid 150s, taking some of the selling pressure off the yen, that would probably be the best they can hope for right now."

The Bank of Japan is only expected to raise borrowing costs gradually while other central banks, including the European Central Bank, are likely to deliver hikes far more quickly, which puts the yen at a disadvantage with investors who seek out extra returns from higher domestic interest rates.

On a trade-weighted basis, the yen is at record lows, which favours its exporters but compounds the energy-price shock, given Japan's reliance on imported goods. Data on Friday showed Japan's core inflation slowed to a four-year low in April, complicating the outlook for BOJ policy.

Currencies in emerging Asia have also come under immense pressure owing to the surge in global oil prices, forcing policymakers to take increasingly urgent and unusual steps to shore up their economies. The Turkish lira hit record lows against the dollar on Friday after a court ruling went against the main opposition party.

 

 

 


Gold Set for Weekly Loss as Oil-driven Inflation Fears Boost Rate-hike Bets

A gold bar inside a jewelry shop in the Gold Market on Al-Moez Street in Old Cairo (Reuters)
A gold bar inside a jewelry shop in the Gold Market on Al-Moez Street in Old Cairo (Reuters)
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Gold Set for Weekly Loss as Oil-driven Inflation Fears Boost Rate-hike Bets

A gold bar inside a jewelry shop in the Gold Market on Al-Moez Street in Old Cairo (Reuters)
A gold bar inside a jewelry shop in the Gold Market on Al-Moez Street in Old Cairo (Reuters)

Gold edged lower on Friday and was headed for a second consecutive weekly drop, as elevated oil prices fueled fears of inflation and boosted expectations of a US interest rate hike this year. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,523.42 per ounce, as of 1148 GMT. The metal has shed about 0.4% so far in the week. US gold futures for June delivery lost 0.4% to $4,524.30. Brent crude oil prices held above $105 a barrel as investors doubted the prospects of a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, even as Iranian media reported that Iran's foreign minister met Pakistan's interior minister on Friday to discuss proposals to end the war.

"Given the current high negative correlation to oil, dollar, and yields, these – especially oil - will set the tone for gold in the upcoming sessions," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Higher oil prices stoke inflation risks, increasing chances of higher-for-longer interest rates. While gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to weigh on the non-yielding metal. Markets are now pricing in a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end, with a 58% chance of at least one 25 basis-point hike by December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

The dollar held near a six-week high, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.

"Technically, the 200-day moving average at $4,372 and the 50-day at $4,667 continue to define the outer boundaries, with gold likely retaining a slight negative bias until the Middle East crisis is resolved," Hansen said. Elsewhere, US President Donald Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh as Fed chair later in the day at the White House, the administration said. Spot silver fell 1% to $75.92 per ounce, platinum lost 1.5% to $1,936.45 and palladium fell 0.8% to $1,367.70. All the metals were on course for weekly losses.