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Iraq: Shiite Factions Scramble to Win Parliamentary Majority After Withdrawal of Sadrist Movement

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on a billboard in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, June 21, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on a billboard in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, June 21, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
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Iraq: Shiite Factions Scramble to Win Parliamentary Majority After Withdrawal of Sadrist Movement

Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on a billboard in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, June 21, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad
Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on a billboard in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, June 21, 2021. REUTERS/Ahmed Saad

An announcement made by Moqtada al-Sadr that he won’t run in Iraq’s parliamentary elections has increased the chances of those seeking to postpone the early polls scheduled for Oct. 10 to their constitutional date in April 2022.

Sadr’s Sairoon bloc is the biggest in the Iraqi parliament with 54 out of 329 seats.

Several other prominent factions and parties have recently announced their rejection to run in the elections, including the Iraqi Communist Party, the Iraqi Forum Movement led by Ayad Allawi, the National Dialogue Front led by Saleh al-Mutlaq, the Iraqi Republican Gathering of Saad Asim al-Janabi, and others.

A well-informed Iraqi politician told Asharq Al-Awsat that the priority was now to hold the elections in October.

Setting this date was part of the commitment made by Prime Minister Mustafa to hold early elections, deal with the foreign presence in Iraq, reveal the killers of demonstrators during protests that erupted in 2019, as well as address the economic crisis and confronting the Covid-19 pandemic, said the politician.

The Iraqi premier has now set an early date for the elections, achieved progress in the assassinations case, and reached an agreement over the withdrawal of the US combat forces in Iraq by the end of the year.

While none of the Shiite factions and parties have announced their support or rejection of Sadr’s position, the surprise came from the leader of the State of Law Coalition, Nuri al-Maliki, Sadr’s most prominent opponent.

In a statement on Thursday, Maliki announced that the parliamentary elections would not be postponed and would take place on time. He also declared his rejection of an “emergency government because it means a rebellion against democracy and the principles of parliamentary transfer of power.”

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Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
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Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)

Already suffering from a prolonged conflict as a result of the Houthi coup against the legitimate authority, Yemen is facing mounting risks brought on by climate change, the World Bank warned on Thursday.
Many populations are facing threats from climate change, such as extreme heat, drought, and floods, the WB said in its newly released Yemen Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR).
Stephane Guimbert, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen and Djibouti said that Yemen is facing an unprecedented convergence of crises — conflict, climate change, and poverty.
He called for immediate and decisive action on climate resilience, a matter of survival for millions of Yemenis.
“By investing in water security, climate-smart agriculture, and renewable energy, Yemen can safeguard human capital, build resilience and lay the foundations for a path to sustainable recovery,” he said.
The WB report said half of Yemenis are already exposed to at least one climate hazard — extreme heat, drought, or flooding — with compounding effects on food insecurity and poverty.
These risks, it showed, are expected to intensify without immediate action and Yemen’s annual GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios, largely due to decreased agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage.
Navigating Challenges
Despite these challenges, the CCDR identifies strategic opportunities to strengthen resilience, improve food and water security, and unlock sustainable growth, the WB report noted.
For example, it said, targeted investments in water storage and groundwater management, coupled with adaptive agriculture techniques could lead to productivity gains of up to 13.5% in crop production under optimistic climate scenarios for the period of 2041 to 2050.
The report also spoke about risks to the fisheries sector, considered as a critical source of livelihood for many Yemenis.
Its projections indicate a potential decline of up to 23% in fish stocks due to rising sea temperatures and altered marine ecosystems.

The WB report also said that climate change exacerbates existing health challenges in Yemen, leading to increased healthcare costs and strain on already fragile health systems.
“It is projected that climate-related health issues could cost the country over $5 billion in excess health costs by 2050,” it noted.
“Addressing these challenges requires integrating climate resilience into public health planning, with a focus on vulnerable groups such as women and children.”
Concerning infrastructure, the report said urban areas and critical infrastructure are especially vulnerable, and without adaptation measures, economic shocks will disproportionately affect already fragile communities.
As for the private sector, it has a critical role to play in addressing Yemen’s pressing development challenges, said Khawaja Aftab Ahmed, IFC’s Regional Director for the Middle East.
“Harnessing its potential through innovative financing mechanisms and guarantee instruments and creating a conducive investment climate can help mobilize the climate-focused funding the country urgently needs to build a greener and more resilient future,” he said.
The WB report also said that Yemen also has immense potential for renewable energy, which could serve as a key component of its climate response and recovery.
It showed that harnessing renewable energy resources not only offers a pathway to reduce reliance on fossil fuels but also enables the creation of a more resilient power infrastructure.
“This will be essential in supporting vital services such as healthcare, water supply, and food distribution, particularly in conflict-affected areas,” it said.
Global Coordination
The World Bank highlighted the significant commitments and coordination from the international community to support Yemen in coping with climate shocks and building broader resilience.
It said securing sustainable peace will be required to unlock the financing and take the action needed to build long-term resilience to climate change.
The CCDR then underscored the importance of flexible, risk-informed decision-making to adapt climate actions to Yemen's uncertain political landscape.
Under a “Peace and Prosperity” scenario, it said, a higher level of adaptation can be implemented, yielding greater economic and social benefits.
Yemeni Minister of Water and Environment, Tawfiq Al-Sharjabi, stressed the importance of integrating climate action into development strategies and adapting to climate fluctuations.
The minister was speaking at a special session to discuss the WB report on the sidelines of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
He said the report represents a significant contribution for Yemen in addressing climate change and will facilitate access to various climate financing options amid the structural and technical fragility faced by institutions due to the war.
The report, Al-Sharjabi added, aligns closely with Yemen's urgent priorities, particularly in the areas of water and food security, enhancing livelihoods, and promoting area-based climate adaptation approaches.