Clashes in Syria's Daraa: What is the Fighting About?

Three years after Syria's government retook control of the flashpoint southern province Daraa, seen here during a July 2018 airstrike, clashes have resumed. (AFP)
Three years after Syria's government retook control of the flashpoint southern province Daraa, seen here during a July 2018 airstrike, clashes have resumed. (AFP)
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Clashes in Syria's Daraa: What is the Fighting About?

Three years after Syria's government retook control of the flashpoint southern province Daraa, seen here during a July 2018 airstrike, clashes have resumed. (AFP)
Three years after Syria's government retook control of the flashpoint southern province Daraa, seen here during a July 2018 airstrike, clashes have resumed. (AFP)

Three years after Syria's government retook control of the flashpoint southern province of Daraa, regime forces have clashed with the opposition again, trapping thousands of civilians in the crossfire.

Nearly half of the population of the opposition-held Daraa al-Balad district have fled heavy shelling and ground battles, but the United Nations warns that remaining civilians are cut off with dwindling supplies.

On Thursday, the UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen said civilians were suffering from "acute shortages" of food, fuel, water and medicines in a "near siege-like" situation.

"The situation is alarming," Pedersen said.

Here is what you need to know about the conflict.

Why is Daraa important?
Daraa, which borders Jordan and is close to the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, is widely seen as the cradle of the 2011 uprising in Syria, which sparked a decade-long war that has killed almost half a million people.

In 2011, young boys who had scrawled graffiti against president Bashar al-Assad were detained in Daraa, sparking nationwide protests.

After the demonstrations evolved into war, opposition factions seized control.

The opposition hung on until 2018. But after weeks of deadly fighting, the Russia-backed regime retook control under a surrender deal.

Moscow had brokered similar so-called "reconciliation" accords in Syria's second city of Aleppo, as well the Eastern Ghouta region, outside the capital Damascus.

Under those deals, the opposition handed over their heavy weapons and left on buses. But in Daraa, many former opposition fighters stayed behind.

While some did switch sides and join regime forces, others kept their guns and maintained control over several areas.

In the provincial capital, Daraa city, regime forces returned to the northern half, known as Daraa al-Mahatta.

But the southern half, Daraa al-Balad, remained under opposition control.

What sparked the fighting now?
Since the 2018 "reconciliation" deal, Daraa province has seen regular explosions and hit-and-run attacks.

During presidential elections in May -- a vote widely criticized by Syria's opposition -- protesters in Daraa al-Balad took to the streets demanding the "fall of the regime".

The election was held only in the two-thirds of Syria under government control, and there were no ballot boxes in Daraa al-Balad.

After Assad celebrated winning his fourth term in power, he vowed to return all of Syria to state control.

Residents and activists believe the government wants "revenge".

"Many people in Daraa al-Balad are wanted by the regime," said activist Omar al-Hariri.

Which forces are involved?
In late July, some of the fiercest clashes to rock the province since regime forces returned left 32 dead, including 12 civilians, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The government seized farmland outside Daraa al-Balad, before the fighting largely subsided, and Russian-mediated talks began.

But Hariri said pro-Damascus forces had continued to shell the area "to exhaust fighters who only have light weapons".

Mohammad al-Abdallah, director of the Syria Justice and Accountability Center, said Iran was pushing Damascus to bolster its forces there.

Daraa is close to the Golan Heights, occupied by Tehran's arch-foe Israel. Pro-Iran fighters are deployed in parts of the province.

Russia meanwhile has sought to boost its influence by backing the Syrian army's Fifth Corps, which has absorbed many ex-opposition fighters.

"Competition between the Iranians and the Russians over areas of influence in Syria" was also at play, Abdallah added.

Hariri said residents in Daraa al-Balad now face a bleak choice.

"We have two options," he said. "Let the Fifth Corps deploy with Russia pulling the strings, or face a sudden onslaught from regime forces."

What is the impact on civilians?
The UN's envoy Geir Pedersen warned Thursday of his "growing concern" at the situation, calling for an end to the fighting and unimpeded humanitarian access.

Around 24,000 of Daraa al-Balad's 55,000 residents have fled to surrounding areas or regime-controlled parts of the city, the UN humanitarian agency says.

"Civilians are suffering with acute shortages of fuel, cooking gas, water, and bread," Pedersen said. "Medical assistance is in short supply to treat the injured".

Regime forces encircle the district, with entry limited to a single road with checkpoints.

Abu Al-Tayb, a media activist in Daraa al-Balad, said people were "at the mercy" of regime forces.

"Sometimes only women and children are allowed to take the road, and sometimes they close it off completely," he said.

He said flour had run out, the regime had cut off the water supply to the main storage tank, and there were regular power cuts.

"We're making do with very little," he said.



Early US Intelligence Report Suggests US Strikes Only Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Months

A woman walks past a residential building that was hit in an Israeli strike covered with a big Iranian flag, in Tehran on June 25, 2025. (AFP)
A woman walks past a residential building that was hit in an Israeli strike covered with a big Iranian flag, in Tehran on June 25, 2025. (AFP)
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Early US Intelligence Report Suggests US Strikes Only Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Months

A woman walks past a residential building that was hit in an Israeli strike covered with a big Iranian flag, in Tehran on June 25, 2025. (AFP)
A woman walks past a residential building that was hit in an Israeli strike covered with a big Iranian flag, in Tehran on June 25, 2025. (AFP)

A US intelligence report suggests that Iran’s nuclear program has been set back only a few months after US strikes and was not “completely and fully obliterated” as President Donald Trump has said, according to two people familiar with the early assessment.

The report issued by the Defense Intelligence Agency on Monday contradicts statements from Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the status of Iran's nuclear facilities. According to the people, the report found that while the Sunday strikes at the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites did significant damage, the facilities were not totally destroyed. The people were not authorized to address the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The White House rejected the DIA assessment, calling it “flat-out wrong.” On Wednesday, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said in a post on X that “New intelligence confirms” what Trump has stated: “Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed. If the Iranians chose to rebuild, they would have to rebuild all three facilities (Natanz, Fordo, Esfahan) entirely, which would likely take years to do.”

Gabbard’s office declined to respond to questions about the details of the new intelligence, or whether it would be declassified and released publicly.

The office of the director of national intelligence coordinates the work of the nation’s 18 intelligence agencies, including the DIA, which is the intelligence arm of the Defense Department, responsible for producing intelligence on foreign militaries and the capabilities of adversaries.

The DIA did not respond to requests for comment.

The US has held out hope of restarting negotiations with Iran to convince it to give up its nuclear program entirely, but some experts fear that the US strikes and the potential of Iran retaining some of its capabilities could push Tehran toward developing a functioning weapon.

The assessment also suggests that at least some of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, necessary for creating a nuclear weapon, was moved out of multiple sites before the US strikes and survived, and it found that Iran’s centrifuges, which are required to further enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, are largely intact, according to the people.

At the deeply buried Fordo uranium enrichment plant, where US B-2 stealth bombers dropped several 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs, the entrance collapsed and infrastructure was damaged, but the underground infrastructure was not destroyed, the assessment found. The people said that intelligence officials had warned of such an outcome in previous assessments ahead of the strike on Fordo.

The White House pushes back Trump defended his characterization of the strike's impact.

“It was obliteration, and you’ll see that,” Trump told reporters while attending the NATO summit in the Netherlands. He said the intelligence was “very inconclusive” and described media outlets as “scum” for reporting on it.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who was also at the NATO summit, said there would be an investigation into how the intelligence assessment leaked and dismissed it as “preliminary” and “low confidence.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “These leakers are professional stabbers.”

The intelligence assessment was first reported by CNN on Tuesday.

The Israel Atomic Energy Commission said its assessment was that the US and Israeli strikes have “set back Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons by many years.” It did not give evidence to back up its claim.

Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff, who said he has read damage assessment reports from US intelligence and other nations, reiterated Tuesday that the strikes had deprived Iran of the ability to develop a weapon and called it outrageous that the US assessment was shared with reporters.

“It’s treasonous so it ought to be investigated,” Witkoff said on Fox News Channel.

Trump has said in comments and posts on social media in recent days, including Tuesday, that the strike left the sites in Iran “totally destroyed” and that Iran will never rebuild its nuclear facilities.

Netanyahu said Tuesday in a televised statement: “For dozens of years I promised you that Iran would not have nuclear weapons and indeed ... we brought to ruin Iran’s nuclear program." He said the US joining Israel was “historic” and thanked Trump.

Outside experts had suspected Iran had likely already hidden the core components of its nuclear program as it stared down the possibility that American bunker-buster bombs could be used on its nuclear sites.

Bulldozers and trucks visible in satellite imagery taken just days before the strikes have fueled speculation among experts that Iran may have transferred its half-ton stockpile of enriched uranium to an unknown location. And the incomplete destruction of the nuclear sites could still leave the country with the capacity to spin up weapons-grade uranium and develop a bomb.

Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful, but it has enriched significant quantities of uranium beyond the levels required for any civilian use. The US and others assessed prior to the US strikes that Iran’s theocratic leadership had not yet ordered the country to pursue an operational nuclear weapon, but the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that Iran has enough enriched uranium to make several nuclear bombs should it choose to do so.

Vice President JD Vance said in a Monday interview on Fox News Channel that even if Iran is still in control of its stockpile of 408.6 kilograms (900.8 pounds) of enriched uranium, which is just short of weapons-grade, the US has cut off Iran's ability to convert it to a nuclear weapon.

“If they have 60% enriched uranium, but they don’t have the ability to enrich it to 90%, and, further, they don’t have the ability to convert that to a nuclear weapon, that is mission success. That is the obliteration of their nuclear program, which is why the president, I think, rightly is using that term,” Vance said.

Approximately 42 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb if enriched further to 90%, according to the UN nuclear watchdog.

What experts say Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi on June 13 — the day Israel launched its military campaign against Iran — that Tehran would “adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials.”

American satellite imagery and analysis firm Maxar Technologies said its satellites photographed trucks and bulldozers at the Fordo site beginning on June 19, three days before the Americans struck.

Subsequent imagery “revealed that the tunnel entrances into the underground complex had been sealed off with dirt prior to the US airstrikes,” said Stephen Wood, senior director at Maxar. “We believe that some of the trucks seen on 19 June were carrying dirt to be used as part of that operation.”

Some experts say those trucks could also have been used to move out Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.

“It is plausible that Iran moved the material enriched to 60% out of Fordo and loaded it on a truck,” said Eric Brewer, a former US intelligence analyst and now deputy vice president at the Nuclear Threat Initiative.

Iran could also have moved other equipment, including centrifuges, he said, noting that while enriched uranium, which is stored in fortified canisters, is relatively easy to transport, delicate centrifuges are more challenging to move without inflicting damage.

Apart from its enriched uranium stockpile, over the past four years Iran has produced the centrifuges key to enrichment without oversight from the UN nuclear watchdog.

Iran also announced on June 12 that it has built and will activate a third nuclear enrichment facility. IAEA chief Grossi said the facility was located in Isfahan, a place where Iran has several other nuclear sites. After being bombarded by both the Israelis and the Americans, it is unclear if, or how quickly, Isfahan’s facilities, including tunnels, could become operational.

But given all of the equipment and material likely still under Iran’s control, this offers Tehran “a pretty solid foundation for a reconstituted covert program and for getting a bomb,” Brewer said.

Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan policy center, said that “if Iran had already diverted its centrifuges,” it can “build a covert enrichment facility with a small footprint and inject the 60% gas into those centrifuges and quickly enrich to weapons grade levels.”

But Brewer also underlined that if Iran launched a covert nuclear program, it would do so at a disadvantage, having lost to Israeli and American strikes vital equipment and personnel that are crucial for turning the enriched uranium into a functional nuclear weapon.