Lebanon Heading to Complete Collapse Unless Action Taken, Warns Grand Mufti

A view shows cars stuck in a traffic jam near a gas station in Jiyeh, Lebanon, August 13, 2021. (Reuters)
A view shows cars stuck in a traffic jam near a gas station in Jiyeh, Lebanon, August 13, 2021. (Reuters)
TT
20

Lebanon Heading to Complete Collapse Unless Action Taken, Warns Grand Mufti

A view shows cars stuck in a traffic jam near a gas station in Jiyeh, Lebanon, August 13, 2021. (Reuters)
A view shows cars stuck in a traffic jam near a gas station in Jiyeh, Lebanon, August 13, 2021. (Reuters)

Lebanon is heading towards complete collapse unless action is taken to remedy the crisis caused by its financial meltdown, Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian warned on Friday.

The economic collapse that began in 2019 has plumbed new depths this month, leading to fuel shortages that have crippled even essential services and causing numerous security incidents involving scrambles for gasoline.

General Security chief Major General Abbas Ibrahim, ordered his officers to stand firm in the face of the crisis, saying it could be protracted and warning of the chaos that would ensue if the state collapsed.

The warnings are some of the strongest yet from Lebanese officials about the gravity of the situation.

The accelerating pace of the deterioration has added to international concern about a state that was pieced back together after a 1975-90 civil war and is still deeply riven by sectarian and factional rivalries.

The UN secretary general on Thursday called for a new government to be formed urgently.

Lebanese politicians have failed to agree on the government even as the currency has lost more than 90% of its value and more than half of Lebanese have fallen into poverty.

Even vital medicines are hard to find. Cancer patients who have been told their treatment cannot be guaranteed protested on Thursday.

“We fear that ... the patience of Lebanese will run out and that we will all fall into the furnace of complete chaos, manifestations of which we have started to see in all fields,” Derian said during a Friday sermon in comments carried by the National News Agency.

“The matter requires serious and immediate treatment,” he said. “Otherwise we are truly going to what is worse and to complete collapse,” he said, noting clashes that have flared up in some parts of Lebanon.

The World Bank says it is one of the worst collapses ever recorded. Its root causes include decades of corruption in government and the unsustainable way the state was financed.

Foreign donors say they will provide assistance once a government is formed that embarks on reforms.

‘The eye of chaos’
President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati have yet to agree on a cabinet to replace the government that quit after last year’s Beirut port explosion.

The already difficult process was overshadowed on Friday by a row between Aoun and a group of former prime ministers, including Mikati and Saad al-Hariri, over the probe into the explosion.

The former premiers have objected to attempts by the investigating judge to question the caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab, seeing it as an unjustified move against a post reserved for a Sunni and accusing the presidency of steering the probe. Aoun said the accusations were unfortunate.

Mikati was designated premier after Hariri abandoned a nine-month-long bid to form the government, saying he could not agree with Aoun and accusing him of seeking effective veto power in cabinet. Aoun, an ally of the Iran-backed Hezbollah, has denied this. He blamed Hariri.

Derian, who generally aligns with the former prime ministers in politics, urged Aoun to try to save what was left his term.

“Otherwise we are going to ... to the bottom of hell,” he said, recalling Aoun’s warning last September that Lebanon was going to hell if a government was not formed.

Major General Ibrahim, in a message to personnel at General Security, said state institutions had been undermined by “the great collapse”.

Were the state to fall it would fall on everyone “and everyone will be in the eye of chaos and in the line of tension”.



Fear of Losing Seats Drives Resistance to Reforming Expat Voting Law in Lebanon

A session of the Lebanese Parliament last Monday, in the presence of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
A session of the Lebanese Parliament last Monday, in the presence of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
TT
20

Fear of Losing Seats Drives Resistance to Reforming Expat Voting Law in Lebanon

A session of the Lebanese Parliament last Monday, in the presence of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
A session of the Lebanese Parliament last Monday, in the presence of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Asharq Al-Awsat) 

The Lebanese Parliament’s recent tensions over electoral reforms have laid bare the political calculations of the main blocs.

Statements by Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad that “there is no level playing field in expat elections” capture why the Shiite Duo (Hezbollah and the Amal Movement), along with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), refuse to amend the current voting law. That law limits expatriate voters to strictly electing six MPs, rather than allowing them to vote in their home constituencies like residents.

This stance is rooted in the 2022 elections, when overseas ballots overwhelmingly favored opposition candidates, especially independents and reformists. For Hezbollah, Amal, and the FPM, any shift risks further eroding their parliamentary share.

Lebanon’s political forces are sharply divided: on one side are Hezbollah, Amal, and the FPM, who oppose amending Article 122, which reserves six seats for expatriates; on the other side stand the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, the Democratic Gathering, independents, and reformist MPs, all of whom back proposals to let expatriates vote in their districts in 2026.

Tensions flared during Monday’s parliamentary session when Speaker Nabih Berri rejected efforts to place the amendment on the agenda. Researcher Mohammad Shamseddine told Asharq Al-Awsat the refusal stems from a fear that expanded expatriate voting would yield even more unfavorable results for these factions.

Shamseddine noted that about one million Lebanese abroad are eligible to vote, almost a third of the electorate. In 2022, around 141,000 expatriates cast ballots, influencing outcomes in eight districts and twelve seats, mostly favoring reformists. The number of overseas voters could rise to 250,000 in 2026, amplifying their impact.

According to Shamseddine, Hezbollah and its allies secured only around 29,000 expat votes in 2022, compared to 27,000 for the Lebanese Forces alone. This gap is expected to widen further.

For analyst Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, Hezbollah’s resistance also reflects its desire to prevent military setbacks from morphing into political defeat. He argues the party is keen to cling to what influence it has left, especially since it struggles to mobilize diaspora voters as effectively as it does domestically.

Meanwhile, expatriate groups and Maronite bishops abroad have pressed Lebanon’s government to protect their right to vote in their home constituencies. Maronite Bishop Charbel Tarabay warned against any attempt to “deprive expatriates of their connection to the homeland.”

Opposition parties, including the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb, have vowed to fight what they see as an effort to sideline the diaspora. As Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea declared: “We will use every democratic and legal means to restore expatriates’ right to vote in their districts, to keep them tied to Lebanon.”