Damascus ‘Thwarts’ Settlement as it Eyes Reconstruction

UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen holds a press conference at the United Nations Offices in Geneva. (AFP)
UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen holds a press conference at the United Nations Offices in Geneva. (AFP)
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Damascus ‘Thwarts’ Settlement as it Eyes Reconstruction

UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen holds a press conference at the United Nations Offices in Geneva. (AFP)
UN special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen holds a press conference at the United Nations Offices in Geneva. (AFP)

Damascus is set to host in the coming hours United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths.

UN special envoy, Geir Pedersen, meanwhile, is being made to wait for an invitation to visit the Syrian capital as it mulls its priorities for the coming phase. Damascus will welcome international aid and push forward the implementation of the UN resolution on cross-border aid with its new phrasing. The resolution was extended in early July.

Damascus is setting its sights on the reconstruction and relief funds, while delaying negotiations over a political settlement and the UN-sponsored talks in Geneva related to the constitutional committee.

In July, the United States and Russia reached a “historic settlement” that was extension of the cross-border aid resolution. Washington was forced to make concessions over the duration of the resolution and the finer details an accept Moscow’s introduction of new phrasing to the resolution.

The resolution now speaks of “early recovery”. The resolution reads: “The Security Council welcomes all efforts and initiatives to broaden the humanitarian activities in Syria, including water, sanitation, health, education, and shelter early recovery projects, undertaken by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and other organizations, and calls upon other international humanitarian agencies and relevant parties to support them.”

“The Security Council requests the Secretary-General to brief the Council monthly and (…) to include in his reports overall trends in United Nations cross-line operations, in particular on the implementation of the above mentioned activities on improving all modalities of humanitarian deliveries inside Syria and early recovery projects, and detailed information on the humanitarian assistance delivered through United Nations humanitarian cross-border operations, including the distribution mechanism, the number of beneficiaries, operating partners, locations of aid deliveries at district-level and the volume and nature of items delivered.”

Griffiths’ meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad in the coming hours will be an opportunity for Damascus to offer its interpretation of the resolution and its priorities in regards to “cross-line” operations between the three zones of influence inside Syria and the contributions to the “early recovery projects” that take the country closer to reconstructions.

Damascus will likely also pressure Griffiths to take a clearer position on the “unilateral” western sanctions and Ankara’s closure of a water pumping station east of the Euphrates River.

Damascus’ stances are pushing it closer from those of Moscow and Tehran that stand in contrast to Washington and the West that are prioritizing cross-border aid. The US and western countries view the aid as a matter of life or death and have accused Damascus of obstructing deliveries of aid to northeastern regions that are held by Washington’s allies.

Furthermore, western countries refuse to take part in any reconstruction project in Syria before making sure that irreversible progress is achieved in the political process. This position implicitly agrees that sanctions, isolation and pledges to contribute in reconstruction are “means to pressure” Damascus to make internal and geopolitical concessions.

The clash in positions between Damascus and the West over aid will not extend to the political arena as the government continues to refuse to welcome Pedersen despite Russia’s intervention to facilitate such a visit.

Damascus is “angry” with the envoy for helping mediate a meeting between Daraa representatives and his issuing of a statement expressing his concern over the deteriorating situation there. It is also upset with the way negotiations have been held with the head of the government delegation to the constitutional committee talks in Geneva. The negotiations have focused on the agreement on the working mechanism of the committee and working paper that the envoy had presented at the beginning of the year.

Pedersen, meanwhile, wants to head to Damascus to “negotiate” over the UN constitutional mechanism. In April, he had sent a document to government delegation head, Ahmed al-Kuzbari, and opposition “negotiations committee” delegation head, Hadi al-Bahra, tackling the steps to kick off the committee’s work in drafting the constitution. Bahra agreed to the document despite his reservations, while Kuzbari had instead proposed discussing the constitution rather than draft it.

President Bashar Assad had made his position clear over the drafting of the constitution during his swearing in ceremony in July. He said: “You have proven once again the unity of the battle of the constitution and nation. You have proven that the constitution is a priority that is not open to debate or compromise.”

He said that efforts to draft the new constitution aim to put the country “at the mercy of foreign forces”, citing “Turkish agents” at the committee talks – a reference to the opposition negotiations committee delegation.

Moscow will be pleased with Damascus’ presentation to Griffiths of its interpretation of the aid resolution extension.

Sights are now set on Moscow to act to persuade Damascus to welcome Pedersen, who had recently met with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Russia. Perhaps he would meet with Miqdad on the sidelines on the UN General Assembly in New York in September.



Will Rising Israeli Losses in War on Hezbollah Lead it to Agree to a Ceasefire?

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
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Will Rising Israeli Losses in War on Hezbollah Lead it to Agree to a Ceasefire?

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, Lebanon, Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. (AP)

A prevailing impression is growing in Lebanon that the only way for Israel to end its war on Hezbollah is when its losses on the ground become too great for it to ignore.

Israel is incurring deaths in the South on a nearly daily basis as the war approaches the one-month mark.

Observers are in agreement that the battle is difficult for both Israel and Hezbollah, raising questions about whether Israel was prepared for the number of losses.

Founder and CEO of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) Riad Kahwaji wondered: “Are the Israeli losses expected or acceptable and withing reason? Only time will tell.”

“If the battle goes on for more weeks, then it is evidence that it was expected; if it stops within days, it means that the losses exceeded their expectations and they will have to reconsider their options,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

He noted that Israel is losing four to five soldiers on a daily basis.

The fighting will likely go on as diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire continue.

Israel doesn’t always reveal the number of its casualties, but estimates have said they reached 40 in recent days. Hezbollah, on the other hand, stopped declaring the death of its fighters last month.

The Iran-backed party’s casualties had reached 508 in the latest tally. Estimates today believe the figure to have reached a thousand.

Israeli media on Sunday reported that 22 soldiers and officers were killed in fighting in Gaza and southern Lebanon last week. The Israeli army announced the death of one soldier on Sunday and four on Saturday in the South. Israeli media said 88 soldiers were wounded in the past 48 hours of fighting.

Kahwaji said the ground battles are a normal part of the war and Hezbollah is very prepared for them. It has dug tunnels and built fortifications and knows the terrain very well, so the Israeli army is inevitably going to incur losses and Israeli military officials have acknowledged the difficulty of the battle.

Kahwaji highlighted Hezbollah’s decision to stop declaring its losses since the pager attack last month.

“Since then, we no longer hear anything about the party’s losses. The Israeli army, however, cannot hide its casualties,” he remarked.