Influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s announcement that he was reneging on his decision to sit out the October elections has reshuffled the political cards in Iraq.
Some sides have benefited from his return, while other have been harmed by it. Those who had initially rejoiced at Sadr’s absence from the October 10 elections, now find themselves at a loss in how to deal with his return.
Ultimately, the parties that had declared their withdrawal from the race on the heels of Sadr’s withdrawal have emerged as the greatest losers. They are the Iraqi National Accord, of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, and the Iraqi Communist Party.
With Sadr’s return, the Iraqi political scene has become embroiled in a cutthroat battle ahead of the polls with all rivals vying for the greatest seats in parliament. Regardless of who emerges on top, all sides will be eying the ultimate prize: naming the prime minister, who is always a Shiite, the parliament speaker, who is always a Sunni, and president, who is always Kurdish.
Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that behind-the-scenes efforts are focusing on the electoral mechanisms and means to limit electoral fraud. They are also getting ahead of themselves by focusing on the three presidencies.
The Shiite forces, for example, in spite of their deep differences, especially with Sadr’s return to the race, are preoccupied with setting the characteristics of the next premier. A seven-part committee is tasked with the mission.
The Shiites are seeking to agree on the name of the prime minister even before the elections are held.
With Sadr’s return, his supporters will want him to hold sway over naming the PM that will ultimately give the cleric major power over the political scene in the country.
Sadr’s return has taken all discussions on the name of the three presidents, especially the premier, back to square one. The cleric wants the PM to be a loyalist of his Sadrist movement.
Question remarks remain over current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who had previously said that he was not seeking a second term. This may have changed with the return of Sadr, who backs Kadhimi. The premier also enjoys the support of Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party.
Other potential candidates include national security advisor and former interior minister Qassem Araji and former PM-designates Adnan al-Zurfi and Mohammed Shaya al-Sudani. Members of the State of Law coalition have suggested the nomination of its leader, former PM Nouri al-Maliki.
Heated discussions are also ongoing among Sunni and Kurdish circles over the name of the president and parliament speaker. Their choice will have to pass the approval of the Shiite parties. The president is nominated by the two main Kurdish parties, but he needs to be approved by the main Shiite parties. The same goes to the parliament speaker.
As it stands, deep divisions are plaguing the Kurdish and Sunni parties. If the camps remain divided even after the elections, the Shiites will emerge as the most powerful players on the political scene.
