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Divided, Besieged Syria Presents ‘Conditions’ for Normalization

Soldiers near the Syrian and Russian flags in Daraa, Syria (Reuters)
Soldiers near the Syrian and Russian flags in Daraa, Syria (Reuters)
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Divided, Besieged Syria Presents ‘Conditions’ for Normalization

Soldiers near the Syrian and Russian flags in Daraa, Syria (Reuters)
Soldiers near the Syrian and Russian flags in Daraa, Syria (Reuters)

Damascus wants to and is trying to impose its conditions.

Despite Syria being divided into three main spheres of influence with five different armies operating, Damascus believes it can submit normalization requests. This feeling ran even higher after the “Afghan slap.”

Problems and crises have not changed and may have even increased, exacerbated, and deepened. But Damascus believes that it is in a “stronger negotiating position,” and that time is in its favor so long that Washington has abandoned its principles of “nation-building” and “regime change.”

For Damascus, Moscow’s support makes it believe it is capable of objecting. Whenever the Syrian capital is in doubt, Russia lends a helping hand.

Examples corroborating that analogy are ample, especially when reviewing the course of developments over the last few days. Damascus had hesitated in receiving UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen ever since the start of 2021. But what started with strong rejection was mellowed out by a Russian intervention that got Damascus to say yes to Pedersen’s visit.

Pedersen is scheduled to meet with Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mekdad on Saturday.

This visit, for Damascus, comes post regime forces entering the governorate of Daraa. Ten years ago, the southwestern governorate and its capital of the same name were the cradle for Syria’s uprising.

Keen to return to the area through peace or war, Damascus claims that “the conspiracy started in Daraa and that it is where it should be buried.” Syrian rebels, however, believe that their revolution had sprung out of Daraa and that it will not be quelled to the regime’s content.

Moscow doesn’t mind pacing its work according to Damascus’ timing and wishes. It even sent the deputy Russian defense minister to confirm that the regime and its allies would enter Daraa either under truce or by force.

Nevertheless, Damascus is oblivious to the enigmas behind why Russia is in a rush to enter Daraa. For Moscow, how fast it closes in on capturing Daraa is tied to three key dates.

The first date is marked by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s meeting with his Israeli counterpart, Yair Lapid, to prepare for Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s visit to Moscow in October.

In a foreign ministry statement that preceded Lapid’s arrival, Moscow openly expressed its desire to prevent Syria from becoming a theater for military confrontation between other states, stressing that such wars threaten to spill over across the whole region.

In other words, Moscow does not want Israeli airstrikes in Syria to evolve to a full-fledged military battle between Damascus and Tel Aviv or between Tel Aviv and Tehran.

The second date involves a meeting of the Syrian, Jordanian, Egyptian, and Lebanese oil ministers in Amman to discuss the transfer of Egyptian gas to Lebanon via Syria.

Washington had agreed to this and that the Biden administration even approved a Jordanian request to waive any penalties pertaining to the Caesar Act.

Regarding this process, Damascus put in place several conditions.

The first of these conditions was resuming political visits to Syria, and this is what happened with the arrival of a Lebanese ministerial delegation for the first time since 2011. The second was holding an Arab ministerial meeting with the participation of Syria in Amman.

The third and final condition was an implicit acknowledgment of accepting the regime’s official return to Daraa’s provincial capital, where tens of kilometers of gas pipelines need repairing and security is required to control Jordan’s borders.

As for the third key date, it anticipates the Syrian-US dialogue. It has already been agreed that the White House National Security Council's Middle East policy coordinator, Brett McGurk, will meet with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin and the Kremlin’s special envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev in Geneva on September 14 and 15.

So far, the Russia-West dispute in Syria remains on the premise of “whoever blinks first loses.”
A few days ago, in a closed session, Lavrov told European officials that they needed to help rebuild Syria and talk to President Bashar al-Assad there. Still, they insisted that the regime needs to change its behavior first.

The reality of the situation is that while the Syrians are waiting on the embers of ruin for foreign players to make their move, Russia continues to advance its own conditions and undermine Western references and policies.

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Protest Letters from Former Israeli Soldiers Lay Bare Profound Rifts over Gaza War

A woman chants slogans as relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages, held captive in the Gaza Strip since the October 2023 attacks, hold placards and chant slogans during an anti-government demonstration calling for action to secure their release, outside the Israeli prime minister's residence in Jerusalem on April 17, 2025. (AFP)
A woman chants slogans as relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages, held captive in the Gaza Strip since the October 2023 attacks, hold placards and chant slogans during an anti-government demonstration calling for action to secure their release, outside the Israeli prime minister's residence in Jerusalem on April 17, 2025. (AFP)
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Protest Letters from Former Israeli Soldiers Lay Bare Profound Rifts over Gaza War

A woman chants slogans as relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages, held captive in the Gaza Strip since the October 2023 attacks, hold placards and chant slogans during an anti-government demonstration calling for action to secure their release, outside the Israeli prime minister's residence in Jerusalem on April 17, 2025. (AFP)
A woman chants slogans as relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages, held captive in the Gaza Strip since the October 2023 attacks, hold placards and chant slogans during an anti-government demonstration calling for action to secure their release, outside the Israeli prime minister's residence in Jerusalem on April 17, 2025. (AFP)

When nearly 1,000 Israeli Air Force veterans signed an open letter last week calling for an end to the war in Gaza, the military responded immediately, saying it would dismiss any active reservist who signed the document.

But in the days since, thousands of retired and reservist soldiers across the military have signed similar letters of support.

The growing campaign, which accuses the government of perpetuating the war for political reasons and failing to bring home the remaining hostages, has laid bare the deep division and disillusionment over Israel’s fighting in Gaza.

By spilling over into the military, it has threatened national unity and raised questions about the army’s ability to continue fighting at full force. It also resembles the bitter divisions that erupted in early 2023 over the government’s attempts to overhaul Israel’s legal system, which many say weakened the country and encouraged Hamas’ attack later that year that triggered the war.

“It’s crystal clear that the renewal of the war is for political reasons and not for security reasons,” Guy Poran, a retired pilot who was one of the initiators of the air force letter, told The Associated Press.

A return to war

The catalyst for the letters was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision on March 18 to return to war instead of sticking to a ceasefire that had facilitated the release of some hostages.

Netanyahu says the military pressure is needed to force Hamas to release the remaining hostages. Critics, including many families of the hostages, fear that it will get them killed.

One month after Netanyahu resumed the war, none of the 59 hostages held by Hamas have been freed or rescued, of whom 24 are believed to still be alive.

In their letters, the protesters have stopped short of refusing to serve. And the vast majority of the 10,000 soldiers who have signed are retired in any case.

Nonetheless, Poran said their decision to identify themselves as ex-pilots was deliberate — given the respect among Israel’s Jewish majority for the military, and especially for fighter pilots and other prestigious units. Tens of thousands of academics, doctors, former ambassadors, students and high-tech workers have signed similar letters of solidarity in recent days, also demanding an end to the war.

“We are aware of the relative importance and the weight of the brand of Israeli Air Force pilots and felt that it is exactly the kind of case where we should use this title in order to influence society,” said Poran.

Elusive war goals

The war erupted on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas carried out a surprise cross-border attack, killing about 1,200 people in southern Israel and taking 251 others hostage.

Throughout the war, Netanyahu has set two major goals: destroying Hamas and bringing home the hostages.

Israel’s offensive has reduced much of Gaza to rubble and killed more than 51,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, who don't differentiate between civilians and combatants.

While Israel has come under heavy international criticism over the devastation in Gaza, the domestic opposition to the conflict reflects a widespread belief that Netanyahu’s war goals are not realistic.

Nearly 70% of Israelis now say bringing home the hostages is the most important goal of the war, up from just over 50% in January 2024, according to a study conducted by the Jerusalem think tank Israel Democracy Institute. Nearly 60% of respondents said Netanyahu’s two goals cannot be realized together.

The survey interviewed nearly 750 people and had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

Netanyahu’s opponents have also accused him of resuming the war to pander to his hardline coalition partners, who have threatened to topple the government if he ends the fighting.

Steering clear of politics

Many people were surprised by the military’s snap decision to dismiss air force reservists who signed the protest letter.

The army, which is mandatory for most Jewish men, has long served as a melting pot and unifying force among Israel’s Jewish majority. Many key units rely heavily on reservists, who often serve well into their 40s.

In a statement, the military said it should be “above all political disputes.”

As the protest movement has grown, a military official said the army is taking the letters “very seriously.”

He said it joins a list of challenges to calling up reservists and that the army is working to support them. A growing number of reservists have stopped reporting for duty, citing exhaustion, family reasons, and the financial burden of missing work.

“Any civilian can have his opinions. The problems come when people use the army as a tool promoting their opinions, whatever they may be,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity under military guidelines.

The army’s dilemma

Eran Duvdevani, who organized a letter signed by 2,500 former paratroopers, told the AP that the army faces a dilemma.

“If it will keep on releasing from service the pilots, what about all the others who signed the letters? Will they be discharged from service as well?” he said.

He said he organized the letter to show “the pilots are not alone.” Their concern over the war’s direction “is a widespread opinion, and you have to take it into consideration.”

Although only a few hundred of the signatories are still actively serving, the Israeli military has been stretched by 18 months of fighting and isn’t in any position to be turning away anyone from reserve duty. Many Israelis are also furious that as reservists repeatedly get called up for action, the government continues to grant military exemptions to Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox governing partners.

The number of Israelis continuing to report for reserve duty has dropped so low that the military has taken to social media to try to recruit people to keep serving.

Protest letters illuminate widespread divisions

Eran Halperin, an expert in social psychology at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, called the letters “the most important indication of the erosion of the ethos in this particular war.”

Though the war enjoyed widespread support at the outset, doubts have grown as so many hostages continue to languish in captivity and the Israeli death toll mounts. Nearly 850 soldiers have been killed since the war started.

“It’s very, very difficult to maintain and manage a war in such violent conflict when there are such deep disagreements about the main questions pertaining to the war,” Halperin said.

In recent days, Netanyahu’s office has published a flurry of messages touting meetings with families of the hostages, stressing he is doing everything he can to hasten their return.

On Tuesday, he and his defense minister toured northern Gaza, where Netanyahu praised the “amazing reservists” doing “marvelous work.”

Netanyahu’s office released videos of him marching through the sandy dunes surrounded by dozens of soldiers.

“We are fighting for our existence,” he said. “We are fighting for our future.”