The Main Challenges Facing Lebanon's New Government

In this photo released by Lebanese government, Lebanese President Michel Aoun, left, meets with Prime Minister Najib Mikat, at the presidential palace, in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Sept 10, 2021. (Dalati Nohra/Lebanese Official Government via AP)
In this photo released by Lebanese government, Lebanese President Michel Aoun, left, meets with Prime Minister Najib Mikat, at the presidential palace, in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Sept 10, 2021. (Dalati Nohra/Lebanese Official Government via AP)
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The Main Challenges Facing Lebanon's New Government

In this photo released by Lebanese government, Lebanese President Michel Aoun, left, meets with Prime Minister Najib Mikat, at the presidential palace, in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Sept 10, 2021. (Dalati Nohra/Lebanese Official Government via AP)
In this photo released by Lebanese government, Lebanese President Michel Aoun, left, meets with Prime Minister Najib Mikat, at the presidential palace, in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Friday, Sept 10, 2021. (Dalati Nohra/Lebanese Official Government via AP)

Lebanon's new government, finally formed in the throes of an accelerating economic meltdown after 13 months of political deadlock, has its work cut out.

What are the most pressing issues for the cabinet announced on Friday, and how easy will they be to tackle?

What are the priorities?
Prime Minister Najib Mikati's 24-member cabinet desperately needs to lift Lebanon out of what the World Bank has called one of the planet's worst economic crises since the 1850s.

The Lebanese pound has lost more than 90 percent of its value to the dollar on the black market, inflation has soared and people's savings are trapped in banks.

With foreign currency reserves plummeting, the cash-strapped state has been struggling to maintain subsidies on basic goods.

Petrol and medicine have become scarce, the state barely provides two hours of electricity supply a day, and almost 80 percent of the population now lives in poverty.

"The first priority for the government really will be to stem the collapse," said Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

Subsidies needed to be lifted and a safety net put in place to ease the blow on the most vulnerable, she said.

To do this, analysts have said, the cabinet will need to relaunch talks with the International Monetary Fund to unlock billions of dollars in financial aid.

After defaulting on its debt in March 2020 for the first time in history, Lebanon started talks with the IMF, but these quickly hit a wall amid bickering over who should bear the brunt of the losses.

Will this be easy?
The international community has demanded sweeping reforms and a forensic audit of the country's central bank before any financial assistance is disbursed.

The previous government in 2020 announced a rescue roadmap that included electricity sector reform, restructuring the banking sector and lifting the official dollar peg.

But it has yet to be implemented.

As for the central bank audit, it too has stalled, with the central bank claiming it could not provide the auditing firm with some of the required documents because of banking secrecy.

Economist Mike Azar said that reforming the oversized commercial banking sector and central bank, as well as restructuring the public sector, would be key for any deal with the IMF.

"There isn't anything you can do short of these two major restructurings," he told AFP.

But the traditional ruling class that has dominated politics in Lebanon since the 1975-1990 war was likely to be reluctant.

"Restructuring the public sector has an impact on the political parties, as it is the main financing source for their" patronage system, he said.

"How would they accept that?"

Although some of the 24 new ministers in Mikati's cabinet are technocrats, all have been endorsed by at least one of Lebanon's many competing political parties.

Yahya said drawing up a medium- to long-term rescue plan for the country would be a "major challenge" as the new government lacked any political consensus.

"This government was formed with the business-as-usual mentality so everybody there represents one political leadership or the other," she said.

This means political parties "can use the ministers within the government to block any reform they see as undermining their interests or unpopular in the street".

Will there be elections?
Mikati on Friday vowed to hold May 2022 parliamentary elections on time.

In a country rocked in 2019 by protests calling for the overhaul of the entire political class, some activists see this as a chance to vote out an old guard deemed incompetent and corrupt, and bring in younger experts to actually represent the people's best interests.

But analyst Michel Doueihy said the political parties in power since the end of the civil war were ready to do anything to cling on to power.

The traditional ruling "class is trying through this government to catch its breath" and restore some credibility ahead of the next parliamentary elections, he told AFP.

He said their tactics could even include postponing the polls.



West Bank Palestinians Losing Hope 100 Days into Israeli Assault

Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
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West Bank Palestinians Losing Hope 100 Days into Israeli Assault

Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP

On a torn-up road near the refugee camp where she once lived, Saja Bawaqneh said she struggled to find hope 100 days after an Israeli offensive in the occupied West Bank forced her to flee.

Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced in the north of the territory since Israel began a major "anti-terrorist operation" dubbed "Iron Wall" on January 21.

Bawaqneh said life was tough and uncertain since she was forced to leave Jenin refugee camp -- one of three targeted by the offensive along with Tulkarem and Nur Shams.

"We try to hold on to hope, but unfortunately, reality offers none," she told AFP.

"Nothing is clear in Jenin camp even after 100 days -- we still don't know whether we will return to our homes, or whether those homes have been damaged or destroyed."

Bawaqneh said residents were banned from entering the camp and that "no one knows... what happened inside".

Israel's military in late February deployed tanks in Jenin for the first time in the West Bank since the end of the second intifada.

In early March, it said it had expanded its offensive to more areas of the city.

The Jenin camp is a known bastion of Palestinian militancy where Israeli forces have always operated.

AFP footage this week showed power lines dangling above streets blocked with barriers made of churned up earth. Wastewater pooled in the road outside Jenin Governmental Hospital.

- 'Precarious' situation -

Farha Abu al-Hija, a member of the Popular Committee for Services in Jenin camp, said families living in the vicinity of the camp were being removed by Israeli forces "on a daily basis".

"A hundred days have passed like a hundred years for the displaced people of Jenin camp," she said.

"Their situation is dire, the conditions are harsh, and they are enduring pain unlike anything they have ever known."

Medical charity Doctors Without Borders in March denounced the "extremely precarious" situation of Palestinians displaced by the military assault, saying they were going "without proper shelter, essential services, and access to healthcare".

It said the scale of forced displacement and destruction of camps "has not been seen in decades" in the West Bank.

The United Nations says about 40,000 residents have been displaced since January 21.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said the offensive would last several months and ordered troops to stop residents from returning.

Israeli forces put up barriers at several entrances of the Jenin camp in late April, AFP footage showed.

The Israeli offensive began two days after a truce came into effect in the Gaza Strip between the Israeli military and Gaza's Hamas.

Two months later that truce collapsed and Israel resumed its offensive in Gaza, a Palestinian territory separate from the West Bank.

Since the Gaza war began in October 2023, violence has soared in the West Bank.

Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 925 Palestinians, including militants, in the territory since then, according to the Ramallah-based health ministry.

Palestinian attacks and clashes during military raids have killed at least 33 Israelis, including soldiers, over the same period, according to official figures.