Syrian Migrants Allowed in by Merkel Vote to Choose her Successor

Syrian refugees arrive at the camp for refugees and migrants in Friedland, Germany April 4, 2016. (Reuters)
Syrian refugees arrive at the camp for refugees and migrants in Friedland, Germany April 4, 2016. (Reuters)
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Syrian Migrants Allowed in by Merkel Vote to Choose her Successor

Syrian refugees arrive at the camp for refugees and migrants in Friedland, Germany April 4, 2016. (Reuters)
Syrian refugees arrive at the camp for refugees and migrants in Friedland, Germany April 4, 2016. (Reuters)

Tarek Saad is keen to help other Syrian refugees who have fled the war in their homeland to make a new home in Germany and he sees the federal election on Sept. 26 as an opportunity to do just that.

Saad is campaigning in his adopted state of Schleswig-Holstein on the Baltic coast for the Social Democrats (SPD), a party he joined in 2016, just two years after he arrived in Germany bearing two gunshot wounds he had survived in Syria.

"I thought the things making my life difficult must be tormenting others as well. To overcome them as quickly as possible, one should be in a political party," said the 28-year-old student of political science.

"Our parents lived under a different political system for long years (in Syria) ... This is an opportunity to develop a new generation (in Germany)," said Saad, who like many refugees will vote for the first time as a German citizen.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to open the door to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees in 2015 was a defining issue of Germany's last federal election campaign in 2017.

Not all newly naturalized refugees are as clear as Saad about their voting intentions.

"I am happy to have this opportunity but I am being cautious and maybe I won't vote," said Maher Obaid, 29, who lives in the town of Singen near the Swiss border.

Obaid, naturalized in 2019, said a lack of clarity among the parties on foreign policy issues, especially Syria, was behind his hesitation.

Getting involved
The number of Syrians who have acquired German citizenship rose by 74% in 2020 to 6,700, federal statistics show. The total number of Syrian refugees is estimated to be much higher, at over 700,000, but getting citizenship requires time and effort.

A 2020 study by the Expert Council on Integration and Migration (SVR) found that only 65% of Germans with a migration background voted in 2017, against 86% of native-born Germans.

Language fluency and socio-economic situation were two factors determining migrants' participation, along with the length of their stay, the study found.

"The longer a person stays in Germany... the more likely they are to feel they understand and can participate in political life," it said.

Historically, migrants from southern Europe and Turkey who came as guest workers saw the Social Democrats as the party that best represented their interests, a study by the DIW research institute showed.

By contrast, Syrians were more likely to support Merkel's conservatives who shaped the migration policy from 2013 to 2016 when the majority of them arrived in Germany, the study found.

But with Merkel bowing out of politics after 16 years at the helm, many Syrians are now making different calculations.

"Syrians should be very smart ... What Merkel did was right but what is her successor doing?" asked Abdulaziz Ramadan, head of a migrant integration organization in Leipzig who was naturalized in 2019.

An informal poll among members of a Syrian migrants' group on Facebook showed most would now vote for the SPD, followed by the Greens, if they were entitled to vote. The option "I don't care" was the third choice.

Mahmoud Al Kutaifan, a doctor living in the south-western city of Freiburg, is among the few Syrians who were naturalized in time to vote in the 2017 election.

"Out of emotion, I voted then for the party of Mrs. Merkel because she supported refugees," he said.

While he has not regretted that decision, he, like many other German voters pondering the post-Merkel era, is unsure how to cast his ballot this time round.

"The election date is approaching but I honestly haven't decided yet."



Who’s in the Frame to Be Lebanon’s Next President?

The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
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Who’s in the Frame to Be Lebanon’s Next President?

The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)
The Lebanese Parliament building a day before a session to elect the Lebanese president, in Beirut, Lebanon, 08 January 2025. (EPA)

Lebanon's parliament will attempt to elect a new head of state on Thursday, with officials seeing better odds of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel's assault on Hezbollah and the toppling of the group's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun's term ended in October 2022.

While there are always many Maronite hopefuls, including the leaders of the two largest Christian parties - Samir Geagea and Gebran Bassil - sources say the focus is currently on the following three names:

JOSEPH AOUN

General Joseph Aoun, 60, has been commander of the US-backed Lebanese army since 2017, leading the military through a devastating financial crisis that paralyzed much of the Lebanese state after the banking system collapsed in 2019.

On Aoun's watch, US aid continued to flow to the army, part of a US policy focused on supporting state institutions to curb the influence of the heavily armed, Iran-backed Hezbollah, which Washington deems a terrorist group.

Shortly after his appointment, the army waged an offensive to clear ISIS militants from an enclave at the Syrian border, drawing praise from the US ambassador at the time who said the military had done an "excellent job".

His training has included two infantry officer courses in the United States.

Lebanese politicians have said Aoun's candidacy enjoys US approval. A State Department spokesperson said it was "up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor".

Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa has said last week there was "no veto" on Aoun. But sources familiar with Hezbollah thinking say it will not support Aoun.

His candidacy has also been opposed by Lebanon's two largest Christian parties - the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement.

Three other former army chiefs - Emile Lahoud, Michel Suleiman and Michel Aoun - have served as president.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri - a Hezbollah ally - has said the constitution would need to be amended in order for Aoun to take the post. It currently forbids a serving state official from becoming head of state.

JIHAD AZOUR

Azour, 58, served as finance minister in the Western-backed government of former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora between 2005 and 2008, a period of intense political conflict in Lebanon pitting factions backed by Iran and Syria against others supported by the West.

Since 2017, he has served as Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He holds a PhD in International Finance and a post-graduate degree in International Economics and Finance, both from the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris.

He first emerged as a presidential candidate in 2023, when factions including both of the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement voted for him. He received 59 votes.

Hezbollah and its closest allies voted for Suleiman Franjieh in that session - the last time parliament attempted to elect a head of state. Franjieh secured 51 votes.

Hezbollah at the time described Azour as a confrontational candidate - a reference to his role in the Siniora cabinet.

Azour said at the time that his candidacy was not intended as a challenge to anyone, but rather "a call for unity, for breaking down alignments and for a search for common ground in order to get out of the crisis".

ELIAS AL-BAYSARI

Major-General Elias Baysari, 60, has been interim head of the General Security directorate since the term of his predecessor, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, ended in 2023 with no consensus among Lebanese factions on who should replace him.

The security agency Baysari runs is Lebanon's most powerful internal security force, running Lebanon's border crossings and domestic intelligence operations.

He was a little-known figure in Lebanese public life until his promotion to the head of General Security.

He holds a PhD in law from the Lebanese University.