Oil Falls Below $75 on Risk-Averse Mood, US Gulf Output

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Oil Falls Below $75 on Risk-Averse Mood, US Gulf Output

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Oil dropped more than $1 a barrel to below $75 on Monday as rising risk aversion weighed on stock markets and boosted the US dollar, while more US Gulf oil output came back online in the wake of two hurricanes.

The dollar rallied to its highest in a month on Monday as pending catastrophe at developer China Evergrande added to a cautious mood and as investors braced for the Federal Reserve to take another step towards tapering this week, Reuters reported.

"Far East stock markets and the strong dollar are affecting oil," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "Nonetheless, unless all hell breaks loose, the positive sentiment ought to prevail."

Brent crude fell 76 cents, or 1%, to $74.58 at 0815 GMT, having dropped as low as $74.26 earlier in the session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 89 cents, or 1.2%, to $71.08.

A stronger dollar makes US dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and generally reflects higher risk aversion, which tends to weigh on oil prices.

Brent has gained 44% this year, supported by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies and some recovery in demand after last year's pandemic-induced collapse.

Oil had gained additional support from supply shutdowns in the US Gulf of Mexico due to the two recent hurricanes, but as of Friday producing companies had just 23% of crude production offline, or 422,078 barrels per day.

"US production in the Gulf of Mexico, which had been shut down as a result of the hurricane, is gradually returning to the market," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank.

A rise in the US rig count, an early indicator of future output, to its highest since April 2020 also kept a lid on prices.



Russian Central Bank Head Warns of Turbulent Times ahead Despite Slowing Inflation

Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia, June 20, 2025. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia, June 20, 2025. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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Russian Central Bank Head Warns of Turbulent Times ahead Despite Slowing Inflation

Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia, June 20, 2025. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina attends a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia, June 20, 2025. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

The Russian economy has adapted to Western sanctions and inflation is now slowing, but turbulent times and major technological shifts lie ahead, central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Wednesday.

Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy grew by 4.3% last year but is set to slow sharply in 2025, with many officials and economists saying that the current model has exhausted its growth potential.

"We have adapted to some external challenges (but) no, we are facing very turbulent times ahead," said Nabiullina, who is widely credited with steering the Russian economy through the Ukraine military conflict and resulting sanctions.

"But I am confident that this also presents new opportunities for development and for increasing labor productivity in conditions of expensive labor. We base our efforts on this," she told a banking conference.

She stressed that the high cost of labor - spurred by the military spending that has led to a wage growth spiral in many sectors, as well as by curbs on immigration - would remain for a long time, Reuters reported.

Nabiullina said the economy should in future rely entirely on domestic sources of financing as cheap funding from abroad, abundant before the Ukraine conflict, is no longer available.

"In my view, structural adaptation to external constraints has been completed. We have demonstrated our ability to adapt to these challenges, but now we are facing structural shifts of an entirely new kind, primarily technological ones," she said.

"They may have even more far-reaching consequences than what we experienced over the past two years," Nabiullina said, mentioning artificial intelligence applications in the economy as one such challenge.

INFLATION SLOWING

The central bank, which has faced heavy criticism over its tight monetary policy, began cutting its key interest rate last month as prices started to come down, helped by the rouble's strength.

Nabiullina said inflation is now slowing faster than the central bank expected, and there are signs of easing in the severity of labor market shortages.

She said that if economic indicators pointed to a more significant slowdown than anticipated, the central bank would have room for bolder interest rate cuts. She dismissed statements by critics of the bank, who want deeper cuts, that the cooling of the economy was excessive.

Nabiullina also rejected statements from many businessman and bankers that the rouble is now overvalued and should weaken to please exporting companies, which saw their revenues shrink as the rouble rallied by over 40% against the dollar this year.

"A weak exchange rate is often a sign of vulnerability, a result of chronically high inflation and a lack of confidence in one’s own currency. It is hardly something to strive for," she said.