Oil Falls Below $75 on Risk-Averse Mood, US Gulf Output

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Oil Falls Below $75 on Risk-Averse Mood, US Gulf Output

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Oil dropped more than $1 a barrel to below $75 on Monday as rising risk aversion weighed on stock markets and boosted the US dollar, while more US Gulf oil output came back online in the wake of two hurricanes.

The dollar rallied to its highest in a month on Monday as pending catastrophe at developer China Evergrande added to a cautious mood and as investors braced for the Federal Reserve to take another step towards tapering this week, Reuters reported.

"Far East stock markets and the strong dollar are affecting oil," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "Nonetheless, unless all hell breaks loose, the positive sentiment ought to prevail."

Brent crude fell 76 cents, or 1%, to $74.58 at 0815 GMT, having dropped as low as $74.26 earlier in the session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 89 cents, or 1.2%, to $71.08.

A stronger dollar makes US dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and generally reflects higher risk aversion, which tends to weigh on oil prices.

Brent has gained 44% this year, supported by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies and some recovery in demand after last year's pandemic-induced collapse.

Oil had gained additional support from supply shutdowns in the US Gulf of Mexico due to the two recent hurricanes, but as of Friday producing companies had just 23% of crude production offline, or 422,078 barrels per day.

"US production in the Gulf of Mexico, which had been shut down as a result of the hurricane, is gradually returning to the market," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank.

A rise in the US rig count, an early indicator of future output, to its highest since April 2020 also kept a lid on prices.



Dollar Drifts as Traders Grapple with Tariff Uncertainty, Volatility

A teller counts US dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
A teller counts US dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
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Dollar Drifts as Traders Grapple with Tariff Uncertainty, Volatility

A teller counts US dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo
A teller counts US dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/File Photo

The dollar wobbled on Tuesday, languishing near a three-year low against the euro and a six-month trough against the yen it hit last week, as investors struggled to make sense of the back-and-forth changes on US tariffs.

Still, currency markets were a lot calmer in Asian hours after last week's turmoil that badly bruised the dollar despite a surge in Treasury yields, highlighting shaky investor confidence in the greenback and US assets.

The dollar was slightly weaker at 142.99 yen, staying close to the six-month low of 142.05 it touched on Friday. The euro last fetched $1.136, just below the three-year high of $1.1474 hit last week.

After slumping to a 10-year low against the Swiss franc last week, the dollar was 0.2% higher on Tuesday. Still, the dollar is down nearly 8% against the Swiss franc this month, set for its biggest monthly drop since December 2008, Reuters reported.

Market focus has been on the ever-shifting tariff headlines with the US removing smartphones and other electronics from its duties on China over the weekend providing some relief, although comments from President Donald Trump suggested the reprieve is likely to be for a short time.

Trump's imposition and then abrupt postponement of most tariffs on goods imported to the US has sowed confusion, adding to the uncertainty for investors and policymakers around the world.

Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets, said the policy uncertainty and erosion in investor confidence are fuelling a slow but steady rotation out of dollar assets.

"The recent backpedaling on US tariffs has eased some of the acute market anxiety, softening the dollar’s safe-haven appeal in the near term."

The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note eased 1.5 basis points to 4.348% after dropping nearly 13 basis points in the previous session.

The yields had risen about 50 bps last week in the biggest weekly gain in over two decades as analysts and investors questioned US bonds' status as the world’s safest assets.

"Last week was all about deleveraging, liquidation, and asset re-allocation out of US assets. This week's tone is calmer in what is a holiday shortened week," said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.

"Helping to set the tone were dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting they are looking beyond inflation."

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday the Trump administration's tariff policies are a major shock to the US economy that could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to head off a recession even if inflation remains high.

Traders are pricing in 86 bps of cuts from the Fed for the rest of the year, LSEG data showed.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, was at 99.641, not far from the three-year low it touched last week. The index is down over 4% this month, set for its biggest monthly drop since November 2022.

Sterling last bought $1.3215. The Australian dollar rose 0.66% to $0.6369, while the New Zealand dollar surged to its highest in four and half months and was last 0.88% higher at $0.5926.