Oil Falls Below $75 on Risk-Averse Mood, US Gulf Output

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Oil Falls Below $75 on Risk-Averse Mood, US Gulf Output

FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
FILE PHOTO: The sun sets behind the chimneys of the Total Grandpuits oil refinery, southeast of Paris, France, March 1, 2021. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

Oil dropped more than $1 a barrel to below $75 on Monday as rising risk aversion weighed on stock markets and boosted the US dollar, while more US Gulf oil output came back online in the wake of two hurricanes.

The dollar rallied to its highest in a month on Monday as pending catastrophe at developer China Evergrande added to a cautious mood and as investors braced for the Federal Reserve to take another step towards tapering this week, Reuters reported.

"Far East stock markets and the strong dollar are affecting oil," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "Nonetheless, unless all hell breaks loose, the positive sentiment ought to prevail."

Brent crude fell 76 cents, or 1%, to $74.58 at 0815 GMT, having dropped as low as $74.26 earlier in the session.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 89 cents, or 1.2%, to $71.08.

A stronger dollar makes US dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and generally reflects higher risk aversion, which tends to weigh on oil prices.

Brent has gained 44% this year, supported by supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies and some recovery in demand after last year's pandemic-induced collapse.

Oil had gained additional support from supply shutdowns in the US Gulf of Mexico due to the two recent hurricanes, but as of Friday producing companies had just 23% of crude production offline, or 422,078 barrels per day.

"US production in the Gulf of Mexico, which had been shut down as a result of the hurricane, is gradually returning to the market," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank.

A rise in the US rig count, an early indicator of future output, to its highest since April 2020 also kept a lid on prices.



Oil Recovers from Multi-year Low but Brent Remains below $70

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
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Oil Recovers from Multi-year Low but Brent Remains below $70

FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view shows an oil pump jack outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, June 4, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander Manzyuk/File Photo

Oil prices were steady on Thursday, recovering slightly from a multi-year low, though Brent was still below $70 under pressure from trade tariffs between the US, Canada, Mexico and China and OPEC+ plans to raise output.

Those factors and a larger than expected build in US crude inventories had sent Brent as low as $68.33 on Wednesday, its weakest since December 2021. Brent futures were up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.58 a barrel by 0957 GMT on Thursday while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.63.

"The US President's intention seems to be for a lower oil price," said John Evans at oil broker PVM, adding that questions remain around whether crude is being oversold, Reuters reported.

Prices had fallen after the US enacted tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, including energy imports, at the same time major producers decided to raise output quotas for the first time since 2022.

Oil recovered and stabilized somewhat after the US said it will make automakers exempt from the 25% tariffs.

A source familiar with the discussions said that US President Donald Trump could eliminate the 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports, such as crude oil and gasoline, that comply with existing trade agreements.

"Trump's trade measures are threatening to reduce global energy demand and disrupt trade flows in the global oil market," ANZ commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said in a note.

The OPEC+ producer group, comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to increase output for the first time since 2022.

The resulting retreat in prices was then exacerbated on Wednesday by a rise in US crude inventories, said ANZ's Hynes.

Crude stockpiles in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, rose more than expected last week, buoyed by seasonal refinery maintenance, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell because of a hike in exports, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

There are further signs of weakness in American oil demand, with US waterborne crude oil imports dropping to a four-year low in February, driven by a fall in Canadian barrels shipped to the East Coast, ship tracking data shows. Demand was subdued by refinery maintenance including a long turnaround at the largest plant in the region.

Tariffs also remain in effect on US imports of Mexican crude, a smaller supply stream than Canadian crude but an important one for US refineries on the Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, Chinese officials have flagged that more stimulus is possible if economic growth slows, seeking to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the United States.