Germany Readies for Election that Will End Merkel Era

The CDU is portraying Armin Laschet (right) as the candidate to ensure continuity and cement Merkel's legacy. John MACDOUGALL AFP/File
The CDU is portraying Armin Laschet (right) as the candidate to ensure continuity and cement Merkel's legacy. John MACDOUGALL AFP/File
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Germany Readies for Election that Will End Merkel Era

The CDU is portraying Armin Laschet (right) as the candidate to ensure continuity and cement Merkel's legacy. John MACDOUGALL AFP/File
The CDU is portraying Armin Laschet (right) as the candidate to ensure continuity and cement Merkel's legacy. John MACDOUGALL AFP/File

Germany goes to the polls on Sunday in an election that will see Angela Merkel step down after 16 years in power, sparking a knife-edge race to lead Europe's biggest economy.

The first chancellor not to seek re-election since 1949, Merkel's decision to bow out sets the country synonymous with stability on course for change no matter who wins when the final count is in, reported Agence France-Presse.

Western allies are watching nervously, wary of an uncertain outcome and coalition negotiations that would blunt for weeks, if not months participation on the international scene by Europe's biggest power of 83 million people.

For Merkel's centre-right CDU-CSU bloc, the stakes could hardly be higher.

Their pick for chancellor, the affable but gaffe-prone Armin Laschet, 60, has seen his popularity dwindle since he was caught chuckling during a tribute to victims of floods in July, the deadliest in Germany for decades.

The conservatives now face the prospect of not just losing the chancellery, but of being booted out of government altogether -- unless Laschet can pull off one of his trademark last-minute comebacks.

His main rival is Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz, 63, from the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), junior partners in three out of four Merkel-led governments.

- Hunger strike -

Often described as capable but boring, Scholz has cast himself as a safe pair of hands and the natural Merkel heir.

The latest opinion polls put Scholz's SPD in the lead with around 25 percent support, but the gap with the conservatives has narrowed in recent days to just three percent.

With just over three days left to win over undecided voters, "it's getting really exciting", said Jan Schaefer, politics editor of Germany's best-selling Bild newspaper.

Polling in third place at around 15 percent are the centre-left Greens, who are poised to play a key role in post-election coalition haggling.

Climate change has emerged as a top voter concern among the 60.4 million people eligible to vote, including about 2.8 million able to do so for the first time.

The Greens' candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock, 40, has warned that the next government "will be the last that can still actively influence the climate crisis".

Huge crowds are set to take to the streets Friday for a global climate demo, while young climate activists have been on hunger strike outside the Reichstag parliament in Berlin.

After steering Germany safely through crises such as the 2009-10 eurozone financial crunch, a massive influx of refugees in 2015 and the coronavirus pandemic, Merkel leaves behind an economic powerhouse in relatively robust health.

- Merkel lifeline -

But critics say years of under-investment in infrastructure and education have left the European Union's most populous country unprepared for a greener and more digital future, while social inequality has worsened.

Scholz and Baerbock have vowed more public investment to help the economy adapt, and higher taxes for top earners.

Laschet says tax hikes could stifle the pandemic rebound and has pledged to cut red tape for businesses.

Although all three candidates are pro-EU, little attention has been paid to foreign policy on the campaign trail, and none of them have Merkel's gravitas on the global stage.

During a farewell visit to her Baltic coast constituency of Stralsund on Tuesday, Merkel threw Laschet a lifeline by saying he was the right choice to "secure Germany's prosperity" and security.

The still immensely popular chancellor had planned to keep a low profile throughout the campaign, before Laschet's dwindling fortunes forced her to jump into the fray.
"Everyone knows: if Laschet loses, Merkel's legacy is lost too," said conservative newspaper Die Welt.

- Coalition wrangling -

The unpredictable election is expected to yield a number of coalition options.

In an unusual move, Laschet has already said that even if he comes second, he will try to cobble together an alliance with the Greens and the pro-business FDP.

The Greens have signaled they are more comfortable governing with the SPD.

Should they require a third partner for a parliamentary majority, the far-left Linke could step in but their anti-NATO stance makes them a controversial choice.

None of the parties will partner with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Tortuous coalition talks are likely to drag on for weeks, possibly months, keeping Merkel in office a little longer.

The veteran leader has been tight-lipped about what she'll do next, but she has said she pictures herself reading and maybe taking "a little nap".



China Has Expanded its Nuclear Force, Strengthened Ties to Russia, the Pentagon Says

An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
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China Has Expanded its Nuclear Force, Strengthened Ties to Russia, the Pentagon Says

An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)
An American flag is flown next to the Chinese national emblem outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Nov. 9, 2017. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)

China is expanding its nuclear force, has increased military pressure against Taiwan and has strengthened its ties with Russia over the past year, according to a Pentagon report Wednesday that details actions accelerating key areas of conflict with the United States.

The report, however, also notes that the recent rash of corruption allegations within China's powerful Central Military Commission, which oversees the People’s Liberation Army, is hurting Beijing’s military growth and could slow its campaign to modernize.

The impact, said a senior defense official, is a bit of a mixed bag because while there has been progress in some programs, China has slid back in others.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the US assessment, warned that Beijing is working toward developing a more diverse and technologically sophisticated nuclear force. While the expected number of nuclear warheads has maintained consistent growth, China is broadening its targeting abilities, The AP reported.

Beijing is going to be able to go after more and different types of targets, do greater damage and have more options for multiple rounds of counterstrikes, the official said. The US is urging China to be more transparent about its nuclear program, while also warning that America will defend its allies and take appropriate steps in response.

According to the report, which provides the annual US assessment of China’s military power and is required by Congress, China had more than 600 operational nuclear warheads as of May, and the US expects it will have more than 1,000 by 2030.

The Biden administration has worked to maintain a balance with China, building up the US military presence in the Asia-Pacific region to be ready to counter Beijing while also encouraging increased communications between the two countries at the diplomatic and military levels.

That uptick in talks has coincided with a decrease in coercive and risky intercepts of US aircraft since late 2023, compared with the previous two years. China still, however, does what the US military considers “unsafe” flights near American and allied forces in the region.

The Pentagon’s national defense strategy is built around China being the greatest security challenge for the US, and the threat from Beijing influences how the US military is equipped and organized for the future.

The corruption within the PLA has resulted in at least 15 high-ranking officials being ousted in a major shakeup of China’s defense establishment.

“This wave of corruption touches every service in the PLA, and it may have shaken Beijing’s confidence," the report said.

In June, China announced that former Defense Minister Li Shangfu and his predecessor, Wei Fenghe, were expelled from the ruling Communist Party and accused of corruption. Last month, another senior official, Miao Hua, was suspended and put under investigation, according to China's Defense Ministry.

The US report points to a persistent increased military presence by China around Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its own. It said China's navy has been in the region more and that there have been increased crossings into the island's air defense identification zone and major military exercises in the area.

Just last week, a large deployment of Chinese navy and coast guard vessels in the waters around Taiwan triggered alarm as Taiwanese officials said it looked like China was simulating a blockade. Officials have said there were as many as 90 ships involved in what Taiwan described as two walls designed to demonstrate that the waters belong to China.

Taiwan split from communist China in 1949 and has rejected Beijing’s demands that it accept unification. China says it will do so by force if necessary, and leaders have said they want to be ready to do so by 2027.

The United States is obligated under domestic law to help defend Taiwan and give it weapons and technology to deter invasion.

The island democracy has been the chief source of tension between Washington and Beijing for decades and is widely seen as the most likely trigger for a potentially catastrophic US-China war.

More broadly, the report concluded that the PLA continued its drive to develop greater military capabilities but “made uneven progress toward its 2027” milestone for modernization.

One area of expansion, the report said, is with unmanned aerial systems, which officials said are “quickly approaching US standards.”

Regarding Russia, the report said China has supported Russia's war against Ukraine and sold Russia dual-use items that Moscow's military industry relies on. Dual use items can be used for both civilian and military purposes.