Secret Jordanian Document Proposes ‘Change in Behavior’ of Syrian Regime

The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
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Secret Jordanian Document Proposes ‘Change in Behavior’ of Syrian Regime

The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)
The Syrian town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus as seen on April 17, 2018. (AFP)

A “secret” Jordanian document has proposed a new approach to dealing with the Syrian regime. The document puts in place steps that aim to achieve gradual change in behavior by the regime, leading up to the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the war-torn country and recognizing the “legitimate interests” of Russia there.

A senior western official, who read the document, confirmed that it was discussed between Arab leaders, including Jordan’s King Abdullah II, who tackled it with US President Joe Biden in Washington in July and Russian President Vladimir Putin in August.

The official told Asharq Al-Awsat that Jordan was encouraged to pursue its efforts in Syria after it received support from Washington over the extension of gas pipelines through Syria, Egypt and its own territories to Lebanon. It also received pledges that it will not come under sanctions in line with Caesar Act for working with Damascus.

Russia, meanwhile, exerted efforts to reach the recent settlement in the southern Syrian province of Daraa. The deal made sure that civilians would not seek asylum in Jordan and that Iran would not expand its influence in Daraa. In return, Jordan would reopen the border with Syria and officials would exchange visits to hold military, security and economic talks.

Last week, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mikdad held talks with his Egyptian, Jordanian and Tunisian counterparts. In contrast, the Syrian opposition practically held no meetings in New York.

On the Arab scene, consensus remains elusive over Damascus’ return to the Arab League. Its membership was suspended in 2012 in wake of the uprising and the regime’s violent crackdown on peaceful protesters. Arab countries are hinging Syria’s return on Damascus taking tangible steps in implementing the political solution in line with UN Security Council resolution 2254 and ensuring the withdrawal of foreign militias from its territories.

Multiple failures
The western official said the secret document stemmed from an assessment that the approach towards ending the Syrian conflict that was adopted in the past ten years has been a failure on all levels. As it stands, some 6.7 Syrians have fled their homes, 6.6 million are displaced and 13 million are in need of humanitarian aid and 80 percent of the population lives in poverty.

As for ISIS, it may have been defeated in March 2019, but the terrorist group may still regroup in various Syrian regions, including the desert (Badia) and southeastern region that borders Jordan.

The official revealed that the secret document also addresses Iran’s presence in Syria. It concluded that Tehran “enjoys growing military and economic influence over the regime and different regions in the country, especially the southwest”, where drugs smuggling – a main source of income for its militias – is rampant, posing a threat to the region and beyond.

New approach
Based on the above, the document proposes a new approach that could refocus attention on the political solution in Syria based on resolution 2254 and addressing the humanitarian crisis and its security impact on the country and the region. The approach would adopt a series of accumulative steps that would focus on “combating terrorism and containing Iran’s growing influence” with the ultimate goal being changing the behavior of the regime. In return, Damascus would be offered incentives that would reflect positively on the Syrian people and allow the return of refugees and the displaced, revealed the official.

These ideas align with those proposed by UN envoy Geir Pedersen, who had suggested a “step-for-step” approach towards Syria that would start with an American-Russian understanding that would identify these steps. These steps would then be backed by the region, Arab world and Europe before a mechanism is put in place for the regime to be implemented.

The western official said garnering Russia’s support for the new approach was fundamental, as was recognizing Moscow’s legitimate interests. There are hopes that cooperation could take place with Russia to determine the common points of interest so that efforts can move ahead towards the political solution and implementing resolution 2254.

Roadmap
Among the obstacles hindering the new approach is the division over how the regime would be involved. Another obstacle is the lack of Arab consensus over Syria’s return to the Arab League and lack of progress in the political solution based on resolution 2254. Another hurdle is the US and Europe’s commitment to pressure tools against Damascus: sanctions, isolation and funding the reconstruction. The Caesar Act is yet another obstacle.

To address some of these hurdles, it was suggested that Jordan test the waters with Damascus before expanding contacts with the regime. Experts have therefore, sought to draft an “executive roadmap” over how to achieve the “step-for-step” approach that would cover the abovementioned files and the necessary stance from Damascus over “changing the behavior of the regime”, the peace process, resolution 2254, the Constitutional Committee, Iran’s role and return of refugees.

A top priority at the moment appears the demand for “all non-Syrian forces to withdraw from the contact lines” and then the eventual pullout from the country of all foreign forces that deployed there after 2011. In return, American forces would withdraw from Syria and dismantle the al-Tanf base on the Syrian-Jordanian-Iraqi border, and channels of coordination would be opened between the Syrian army and security forces with their counterparts from neighboring countries to control border security.

The document did not include a timetable for its execution. It also did not include a stance on the Russian military presence in Syria even though it did recognize Moscow’s interests. It also did not address Damascus’ stance that the deployment of Iranian militias was based on its request, noted the western official.



Numbers That Matter from the First 100 Days of Trump’s Second Term

US President Donald Trump looks on, on the day he welcomes the Super Bowl LIX winner, NFL champion Philadelphia Eagles on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 28, 2025. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump looks on, on the day he welcomes the Super Bowl LIX winner, NFL champion Philadelphia Eagles on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 28, 2025. (Reuters)
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Numbers That Matter from the First 100 Days of Trump’s Second Term

US President Donald Trump looks on, on the day he welcomes the Super Bowl LIX winner, NFL champion Philadelphia Eagles on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 28, 2025. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump looks on, on the day he welcomes the Super Bowl LIX winner, NFL champion Philadelphia Eagles on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, US, April 28, 2025. (Reuters)

President Donald Trump's first 100 days back in the White House have been a demolition job — and that's a point of pride for his administration.

For the Republican administration, the raw numbers on executive actions, deportations, reductions in the federal workforce, increased tariff rates and other issues point toward a renewed America. To Trump's critics, though, he's wielding his authority in ways that challenge the Constitution's separation of powers and pose the risk of triggering a recession.

From executive orders to deportations, some defining numbers from Trump’s first 100 days:

Roughly 140 executive orders In just 100 days, Trump has nearly matched the number of executive orders that his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, signed during the previous four years, 162. Trump, at roughly 140, is essentially moving at a pace not seen since Franklin Delano Roosevelt's presidency, when the Great Depression necessitated urgent action.

But the number alone fails to capture the unprecedented scope of Trump's actions. Without seeking congressional approval, Trump has used his orders and directives to impose hundreds of billions of dollars annually in new import taxes and reshape the federal bureaucracy by enabling mass layoffs.

John Woolley, a professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara and co-director of the American Presidency Project, sees "very aggressive assertions of presidential authority in all kinds of ways" that are far more audacious than anything done by former presidents. That includes Biden's student debt forgiveness program and Barack Obama's decision to allow residency for immigrants who arrived in the country illegally as children.

"None of those had the kind of arbitrary, forceful quality of Trump’s actions," Woolley said.

145% tariff rate on China Trump's tariff agenda has unnerved the global economy. He's gone after the two biggest US trade partners, Mexico and Canada, with tariffs of as much as 25% for fentanyl trafficking. He's put import taxes on autos, steel and aluminum. On his April 2 "Liberation Day," he slapped tariffs on dozens of countries that were so high that the financial markets panicked, causing him to pull back and set a 10% baseline tax on imports instead to allow 90 days of negotiations on trade deals.

But that pales in comparison to the 145% tariff he placed on China, which prompted China to fight back with a 125% tax on US goods. There are exemptions to the US tariffs for electronics. But inflationary pressures and recession fears are both rising as a trade war between the world's two largest economies could spiral out of control in dangerous ways.

The US president has said that China has been talking with his administration, but he's kept his description of the conversations vague. The Chinese government says no trade negotiations of any kind are underway. Trump is banking on the tariffs raising enough revenue for him to cut taxes, even as he simultaneously talks up the prospect of an agreement.

So far, despite the economic risks, the Trump team shows little desire to budge, even as the president claims a deal with China will eventually happen.

"I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday.

More than 10,000 square miles of Crimea Trump said during his presidential campaign that he could quickly defuse the Russian-started war in Ukraine. But European allies and others say the US president's statements about how to end the war reflect a troubling affinity for Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Trump's peace proposal says that Ukraine must recognize Russian authority over the more than 10,000 square miles (26,000 square kilometers) of the Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy rejected the idea out of hand: "There is nothing to talk about — it is our land, the land of the Ukrainian people."

Russia annexed the area in 2014 when Obama was president, and Trump says he's simply being realistic about its future.

The four meetings that Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, has had with Putin have yet to produce a trustworthy framework for the deal that Trump wants to deliver.

After recent Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns, Trump posted on social media that perhaps Putin "doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along."

Over 2,000 more Palestinians in Gaza dead Trump was eager to take credit for an "epic ceasefire" agreement in the Israel-Hamas war in order to restart the release of hostages taken in Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack. But the ceasefire ended in March, and more than 2,000 Palestinians have died since the temporary truce collapsed. Palestinian officials have put the total number of deaths above 52,200. Food, fuel and medicine have not entered the Gaza Strip for almost 60 days.

Trump said in February that he would remove the Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and relocate them elsewhere, suggesting that the United States could take over the area, level the destroyed buildings and construct a luxurious "Riviera of the Middle East."

Roughly 280,000 federal job losses The Department of Government Efficiency, led by tech billionaire and adviser Elon Musk, is dramatically shrinking the government workforce. Across all agencies, there have been about 60,000 firings, including at the IRS, which might make it harder to collect taxes and reduce the budget deficit. Another 75,000 federal workers accepted administration buyout offers. And the Trump administration has floated at least another 145,000 job cuts.

Those estimated job losses don't include the possible layoffs and hiring freezes at nonprofits, government contractors and universities that had their federal funding frozen by the Trump administration.

The federal government had about 3 million federal employees, including at the US Postal Service, when Trump became president, according to the Labor Department.

139,000 deportations The Trump administration says it has deported 139,000 people who were in the United States without proper legal authority. Trump’s first months also have produced a sharp drop in crossings at the Southwest border, with Border Patrol tracking 7,181 encounters in March, down from 137,473 the same month last year.

Deportations have occasionally lagged behind Biden’s numbers, but Trump officials reject the comparison as not "apples to apples" because fewer people are crossing the border now.

The administration maintains that it's getting rid of violent and dangerous criminals. But many migrants who assert their innocence have been deported without due process.

In April, the Supreme Court directed the Trump administration to "facilitate" the return to the US of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, an El Salvador citizen who was deported to his home country. Abrego Garcia had been living in Maryland and had an immigration court order preventing his deportation to his native country over fears he would face persecution from local gangs. So far, Abrego Garcia remains held in a Salvadoran prison.

Trump said last week that he won the presidential election on the promise of deportations and that the courts are interfering with his efforts.

"We’re getting them out, and a judge can say, ‘No, you have to have a trial,’" Trump said. "The trial's going to take two years, and now we’re going to have a very dangerous country if we’re not allowed to do what we’re entitled to do."