Taiwan Tensions Raise Fears of US-China Conflict in Asia

In this photo released by the US Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with US Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sails to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, on Oct. 3, 2021. (Jason Tarleton/US Navy via AP)
In this photo released by the US Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with US Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sails to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, on Oct. 3, 2021. (Jason Tarleton/US Navy via AP)
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Taiwan Tensions Raise Fears of US-China Conflict in Asia

In this photo released by the US Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with US Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sails to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, on Oct. 3, 2021. (Jason Tarleton/US Navy via AP)
In this photo released by the US Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with US Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sails to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, on Oct. 3, 2021. (Jason Tarleton/US Navy via AP)

After sending a record number of military aircraft to harass Taiwan over China’s National Day holiday, Beijing has toned down the saber rattling but tensions remain high, with the rhetoric and reasoning behind the exercises unchanged.

Experts agree a direct conflict is unlikely at the moment, but as the future of self-ruled Taiwan increasingly becomes a powder keg, a mishap or miscalculation could lead to confrontation while Chinese and American ambitions are at odds.

China seeks to bring the strategically and symbolically important island back under its control, and the US sees Taiwan in the context of broader challenges from China.

“From the US perspective, the concept of a great power rivalry with China has driven this back up the agenda,” said Henry Boyd, a Britain-based defense analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“The need to stand up to China is a strong enough motivating factor that not taking this fight would also be seen as a betrayal of American national interests.”

China claims Taiwan as its own, and controlling the island is a key component of Beijing’s political and military thinking. Leader Xi Jinping on the weekend again emphasized “reunification of the nation must be realized, and will definitely be realized” — a goal made more realistic with massive improvements to China’s armed forces over the last two decades.

In response, the US has been increasing support for Taiwan and more broadly turning its focus to the Indo-Pacific region. US State Department spokesman Ned Price on Tuesday emphasized that American support for Taiwan is “rock solid,” saying “we have also been very clear that we are committed to deepening our ties with Taiwan.”

Washington’s longstanding policy has been to provide political and military support for Taiwan, while not explicitly promising to defend it from a Chinese attack.

The two sides came perhaps the closest to blows in 1996, when China, irked by what it saw as increasing American support for Taiwan, decided to flex its muscle with exercises that included firing missiles into the waters some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Taiwan’s coast ahead of Taiwan’s first popular presidential election.

The US responded with its own show of force, sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region. At the time, China had no aircraft carriers and little means to threaten the American ships, and it backed down.

Stung by the episode, China embarked upon a massive overhaul of its military, and 25 years later, it has significantly improved missile defenses that could easily strike back, and equipped or built its own aircraft carriers.

The US Defense Department’s recent report to Congress noted that in 2000, it assessed China’s armed forces to be “a sizable but mostly archaic military” but that today it is a rival, having already surpassed the American military in some areas including shipbuilding to the point where it now has the world’s largest navy.

Counting ships isn’t the best way to compare capabilities — the US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers to China’s two, for example — but in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, China would be able to deploy almost the entirety of its naval forces, and also has land-based anti-ship missiles to add to the fight, said Boyd, a co-author of IISS’s annual Military Balance assessment of global armed forces.



King Charles Hosts Macron in First European State Visit to UK Since Brexit

France's President Emmanuel Macron, Britain's King Charles III, Britain's Queen Camilla and Brigitte Macron stand during a ceremonial welcome at Windsor Castle, in Windsor west of London, on July 8, 2025, on the first day of a three-day state visit to Britain. LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS
France's President Emmanuel Macron, Britain's King Charles III, Britain's Queen Camilla and Brigitte Macron stand during a ceremonial welcome at Windsor Castle, in Windsor west of London, on July 8, 2025, on the first day of a three-day state visit to Britain. LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS
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King Charles Hosts Macron in First European State Visit to UK Since Brexit

France's President Emmanuel Macron, Britain's King Charles III, Britain's Queen Camilla and Brigitte Macron stand during a ceremonial welcome at Windsor Castle, in Windsor west of London, on July 8, 2025, on the first day of a three-day state visit to Britain. LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS
France's President Emmanuel Macron, Britain's King Charles III, Britain's Queen Camilla and Brigitte Macron stand during a ceremonial welcome at Windsor Castle, in Windsor west of London, on July 8, 2025, on the first day of a three-day state visit to Britain. LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS

King Charles welcomed French President Emmanuel Macron to Britain on Tuesday for the first state visit by a European leader since Brexit, their warm greeting symbolising the return of closer ties between the two countries.

Macron, treated to a British state visit for the first time, enjoys a strong personal relationship with the king, and there were smiles as the pair met alongside their wives, Brigitte and Queen Camilla, and watched over by soldiers on horseback, in ceremonial uniform of blue tunics and scarlet plumes.

Charles is expected to emphasise "the multitude of complex threats" both countries face in a speech he will deliver at a state dinner at Windsor Castle later, while Macron posted on X on his arrival that "there is so much we can build together".

Kicking off the trip in that spirit, the two countries jointly announced that French nuclear energy utility EDF would invest £1.1 billion ($1.5 billion) in a project to build a nuclear power station in eastern England.

In Windsor, accompanied by heir to the throne Prince William and his wife Princess Catherine, the group climbed into several horse-drawn carriages for a procession which finished in the medieval castle's courtyard, west of London.

Since Prime Minister Keir Starmer's centre-left Labour Party swept back to power last year, Britain has been trying to reset ties with its European allies, and Charles will help set the tone of Macron's visit before the political talks get underway.

"Our two nations share not only values, but also the tireless determination to act on them in the world," the 76-year-old monarch, who is still undergoing treatment for cancer, will say at the banquet later.

While Macron's three-day trip is filled with talks on economic issues and foreign affairs, the first day of the state visit, which comes 16 years after the late Queen Elizabeth hosted then French president Nicolas Sarkozy, is largely focused on pageantry, and heavy in symbolism.

The monarch's right eye was noticeably red when he met Macron. A Buckingham Palace source said he had suffered a burst blood vessel in one eye which was unrelated to any other health condition

Macron is due to address the British parliament in central London later on Tuesday before heading back to Windsor Castle for the state dinner, where he and the king will speak before some 150 guests.

"It's wonderful that we're going down the path of welcoming European leaders once again," Alastair King, the Lord Mayor of the City of London, who will host a banquet in Macron's honour on Wednesday, told Reuters.

MIGRANTS DEAL

Later in his trip, Macron and Starmer's discussions will focus on a range of issues, including how to stop people-smuggling and improve economic and defence ties at a time when the United States is retrenching from its traditional role as a defender of European security.

Although there have been tensions over the shape of post-Brexit ties and how to stop asylum seekers from crossing the Channel in small boats, Britain and France have been working closely together to create a planned military force to support Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire with Russia.

British officials are hoping that Macron will agree to a pilot of an asylum seekers' returns deal. This would involve Britain deporting one asylum seeker to France in exchange for another with a legitimate case to be in Britain, thereby disrupting the business model of people-smuggling gangs.

A record number of asylum seekers have arrived in Britain on small boats from France in the first six months of this year.

Starmer, whose party is trailing behind Nigel Farage's right-wing Reform UK party in the polls, is under pressure to come up with a solution.

France has previously refused to sign up to such an agreement, saying Britain should negotiate an arrangement with all EU countries.