Taiwan Tensions Raise Fears of US-China Conflict in Asia

In this photo released by the US Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with US Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sails to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, on Oct. 3, 2021. (Jason Tarleton/US Navy via AP)
In this photo released by the US Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with US Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sails to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, on Oct. 3, 2021. (Jason Tarleton/US Navy via AP)
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Taiwan Tensions Raise Fears of US-China Conflict in Asia

In this photo released by the US Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with US Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sails to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, on Oct. 3, 2021. (Jason Tarleton/US Navy via AP)
In this photo released by the US Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with US Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) sails to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, on Oct. 3, 2021. (Jason Tarleton/US Navy via AP)

After sending a record number of military aircraft to harass Taiwan over China’s National Day holiday, Beijing has toned down the saber rattling but tensions remain high, with the rhetoric and reasoning behind the exercises unchanged.

Experts agree a direct conflict is unlikely at the moment, but as the future of self-ruled Taiwan increasingly becomes a powder keg, a mishap or miscalculation could lead to confrontation while Chinese and American ambitions are at odds.

China seeks to bring the strategically and symbolically important island back under its control, and the US sees Taiwan in the context of broader challenges from China.

“From the US perspective, the concept of a great power rivalry with China has driven this back up the agenda,” said Henry Boyd, a Britain-based defense analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“The need to stand up to China is a strong enough motivating factor that not taking this fight would also be seen as a betrayal of American national interests.”

China claims Taiwan as its own, and controlling the island is a key component of Beijing’s political and military thinking. Leader Xi Jinping on the weekend again emphasized “reunification of the nation must be realized, and will definitely be realized” — a goal made more realistic with massive improvements to China’s armed forces over the last two decades.

In response, the US has been increasing support for Taiwan and more broadly turning its focus to the Indo-Pacific region. US State Department spokesman Ned Price on Tuesday emphasized that American support for Taiwan is “rock solid,” saying “we have also been very clear that we are committed to deepening our ties with Taiwan.”

Washington’s longstanding policy has been to provide political and military support for Taiwan, while not explicitly promising to defend it from a Chinese attack.

The two sides came perhaps the closest to blows in 1996, when China, irked by what it saw as increasing American support for Taiwan, decided to flex its muscle with exercises that included firing missiles into the waters some 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Taiwan’s coast ahead of Taiwan’s first popular presidential election.

The US responded with its own show of force, sending two aircraft carrier groups to the region. At the time, China had no aircraft carriers and little means to threaten the American ships, and it backed down.

Stung by the episode, China embarked upon a massive overhaul of its military, and 25 years later, it has significantly improved missile defenses that could easily strike back, and equipped or built its own aircraft carriers.

The US Defense Department’s recent report to Congress noted that in 2000, it assessed China’s armed forces to be “a sizable but mostly archaic military” but that today it is a rival, having already surpassed the American military in some areas including shipbuilding to the point where it now has the world’s largest navy.

Counting ships isn’t the best way to compare capabilities — the US Navy has 11 aircraft carriers to China’s two, for example — but in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, China would be able to deploy almost the entirety of its naval forces, and also has land-based anti-ship missiles to add to the fight, said Boyd, a co-author of IISS’s annual Military Balance assessment of global armed forces.



Iran’s Khamenei Criticizes US Proposal in Nuclear Talks but Doesn’t Reject the Idea of a Deal 

Iranians drive past a wall painting of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei (R) and late Iranian supreme leader Khomeini (L) on a street in Tehran, Iran, 01 June 2025. (EPA)
Iranians drive past a wall painting of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei (R) and late Iranian supreme leader Khomeini (L) on a street in Tehran, Iran, 01 June 2025. (EPA)
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Iran’s Khamenei Criticizes US Proposal in Nuclear Talks but Doesn’t Reject the Idea of a Deal 

Iranians drive past a wall painting of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei (R) and late Iranian supreme leader Khomeini (L) on a street in Tehran, Iran, 01 June 2025. (EPA)
Iranians drive past a wall painting of Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei (R) and late Iranian supreme leader Khomeini (L) on a street in Tehran, Iran, 01 June 2025. (EPA)

Iran's supreme leader on Wednesday criticized an initial proposal from the United States in negotiations over Tehran's rapidly advancing nuclear program, though he stopped short of entirely rejecting the idea of agreement with Washington. 

The remarks by Ali Khamenei colored in the red line expressed over recent days — one that says Tehran refuses to give up enriching uranium in any possible deal with the US. 

That demand has been repeatedly made by American officials, including President Donald Trump, though it remains unclear just how much US Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff brought it up in his initial proposal to Iran. 

But what Khamenei did not say in his speech matters as well. He didn't reject the talks, which Iran views as crucial for its economy to lift some the crushing economic sanctions it faces. 

Khamenei also did not insist on any specific level of nuclear enrichment. Iran now enriches uranium up to 60% — a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels. 

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who has led the talks with Witkoff, said Tehran soon will offer its response to the US Khamenei's speech Wednesday at the mausoleum of Khomeini may serve as a preview. 

“If we had 100 nuclear power plants while not having enrichment, they are not usable for us,” Khamenei said. “If we do not have enrichment, then we should extend our hand (begging) to the US.” 

Khamenei touched on previous remarks The 86-year-old Khamenei, who has final say on all matters of state in Iran, often balances his remarks over the demands of reformists within the country who want the talks against hard-line elements within Iran’s theocracy, including the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. 

Late in August, Khamenei in a speech opened the door to possible talks with the US, saying there is “no harm” in engaging with the “enemy.” The supreme leader later tempered that, saying that negotiations with America “are not intelligent, wise or honorable,” after Trump floated nuclear talks with Tehran. 

Khamenei's speech on Wednesday, marking the anniversary of Khomeini's death, offered an opportunity to discuss Witkoff's proposal. He described it as “100% against the idea of ‘we can,’” borrowing from an Iranian government slogan. He described the US as having long sought the dismantling of Iran’s entire nuclear industry. 

“The impolite and insolent American leaders keep repeating this demand with different wordings," Khamenei said. 

He added, using a slogan he's said before: “Those currently in power, Zionist or American, should be aware that they can’t do a damn thing about this." 

Some nuclear power nations do get uranium from outside suppliers, however. Experts long have viewed Iran as using its nuclear program as a chip in negotiations with the West to get sanctions relief. 

The details of the American proposal remain unclear after five rounds of talks between Iran and the US. 

A report by the news website Axios on the American proposal, the details of which a US official separately confirmed, include a possible nuclear consortium that would enrich uranium for Iran and surrounding nations.  

Whether Iran would have to entirely give up its enrichment program remains unclear, as Axios reported that Iran would be able to enrich uranium up to 3% purity for some time. 

A failure to get a deal could see tensions further spike in a Middle East already on edge over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. 

Iran's long-ailing economy could enter a free fall that could worsen the simmering unrest at home. Israel or the US might carry out long-threatened airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. And Tehran may decide to fully end its cooperation with the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog and rush toward a bomb.