Turkish Lira at New Low on Ankara-West Tensions

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
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Turkish Lira at New Low on Ankara-West Tensions

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation.

The lira fell more than 2%, closing in on 10 to the dollar - a level it has never hit - after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had ordered the expulsion of the ambassadors of the United States and nine other Western countries for demanding the release of philanthropist Osman Kavala.

Kavala has been charged with financing nationwide protests in 2013 and for involvement in a failed coup in 2016.

Lira volatility gauges jumped, dollar bonds fell, local 10-year yields moved closed to three-year highs hit last week, flirting with the 20% level.

Turkey's tension with NATO allies over Kavala comes amid heightening worries about government interventions in monetary policy, taking 2021 losses for the lira to about 24%, the worst performance among emerging market peers by a significant margin.

"If politicians make foreigners the bogeyman, it is easier to sell the pressures created by the weak lira as the price to be paid for political autonomy. That also means: a monetary policy U-turn seems less likely now. And that is bad news for the lira," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank.

Turkey's state lenders Ziraat Bank, Vakifbank and Halkbank lowered their loan rates by up to 200 basis points according to the products and maturities, they said in a joint statement on Monday, following last week's central bank policy easing.



Oil Falls on Signs of Progress in US-Iran Talks amid More Market Stress

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Falls on Signs of Progress in US-Iran Talks amid More Market Stress

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices fell more than 2% on Monday on signs of progress in talks between the US and Iran while investors remained concerned about economic headwinds from tariffs which could curb demand for fuel.

Brent crude futures slipped $1.51, or 2.2%, to $66.45 a barrel by 1115 GMT after closing up 3.2% on Thursday. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.11 a barrel, down $1.57, or 2.4%, after settling up 3.54% in the previous session. Thursday was the last settlement day last week because of the Good Friday holiday, Reuters reported.

"The US-Iran talks seem relatively positive, which allows for people to start thinking about the possibility of a solution," said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital Group. "The immediate implication would be that Iranian crude would not be off the market."

Markets also have lower liquidity due to the Easter holiday, which can exacerbate price moves, he added. In the talks, the US and Iran agreed to begin drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, Iran's foreign minister said, after discussions that a US official described as yielding "very good progress." The progress follows further sanctions by the US last week against a Chinese independent oil refinery that it alleges processed Iranian crude, ramping up pressure on Tehran.

Markets also came under stress on Monday, after US President Donald Trump last week made criticisms about the Federal Reserve. Gold prices rose to another record, with jitters rippling into energy markets due to concerns about demand, according to analysts.

"The broader trend remains tilted to the downside, as investors may struggle to find conviction in an improving supply-demand outlook, especially amid the drag from tariffs on global growth and rising supplies from OPEC+," said IG Market Strategist Yeap Jun Rong. OPEC+, the group of major producers including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, is still expected to increase output by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, though some of that increase may be offset by cuts from countries that have been exceeding their quotas. A Reuters poll on April 17 showed investors believe the tariff policy will trigger a significant slowdown in the US economy this year and next, with the median probability of recession in the next 12 months approaching 50%. The US is the world's biggest oil consumer.

Investors are watching for several US data releases this week, including April flash manufacturing and services PMI, for direction on the economy.

"This week's series of PMI releases could further underscore the economic impact of tariffs, with both manufacturing and services conditions across major economies expected to soften," IG's Yeap said, adding oil prices face resistance at the $70 level.