Turkish Lira at New Low on Ankara-West Tensions

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
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Turkish Lira at New Low on Ankara-West Tensions

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation.

The lira fell more than 2%, closing in on 10 to the dollar - a level it has never hit - after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had ordered the expulsion of the ambassadors of the United States and nine other Western countries for demanding the release of philanthropist Osman Kavala.

Kavala has been charged with financing nationwide protests in 2013 and for involvement in a failed coup in 2016.

Lira volatility gauges jumped, dollar bonds fell, local 10-year yields moved closed to three-year highs hit last week, flirting with the 20% level.

Turkey's tension with NATO allies over Kavala comes amid heightening worries about government interventions in monetary policy, taking 2021 losses for the lira to about 24%, the worst performance among emerging market peers by a significant margin.

"If politicians make foreigners the bogeyman, it is easier to sell the pressures created by the weak lira as the price to be paid for political autonomy. That also means: a monetary policy U-turn seems less likely now. And that is bad news for the lira," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank.

Turkey's state lenders Ziraat Bank, Vakifbank and Halkbank lowered their loan rates by up to 200 basis points according to the products and maturities, they said in a joint statement on Monday, following last week's central bank policy easing.



Bahrain's Economy Expands 3.4% in Q4 Driven by Non-oil Growth

General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
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Bahrain's Economy Expands 3.4% in Q4 Driven by Non-oil Growth

General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)
General view of capital Manama, Bahrain, October 30, 2022. (Reuters)

Bahrain's economy expanded by 3.4% in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, citing preliminary data.

Growth was driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in non-oil activities, while oil activities declined by 3.5% over the same period, data from the Gulf nation's Information and eGovernment Authority showed.

For 2024, Bahrain's real total gross domestic product grew by 2.6%, according to the statement.

According to projections from the ministry, Bahrain's real GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, due to a 3.4% expansion in non-oil activities, coinciding with the operation of the Bapco Modernization Program.

The Bapco Modernization Program, one of Bahrain's largest energy investments, is expected to significantly raise refinery output, bolstering fiscal revenues amid efforts to diversify the economy.

Growth is forecast to reach 3.3% in 2026, supported by a 3.9% increase in non-oil activities.

"However, the forecasts will be closely monitored and updated to account for the ongoing global uncertainty and escalating turmoil that may affect the economic projections," the ministry said.

Last month, global ratings agency S&P Global downgraded Bahrain's outlook to "negative" from "stable", citing ongoing market volatility and weaker financing conditions that could increase the government's interest burden.

Escalating trade tensions have added to global economic uncertainty, clouding macroeconomic forecasts and weighing on investor and policymaker confidence around the world.