Turkish Lira at New Low on Ankara-West Tensions

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
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Turkish Lira at New Low on Ankara-West Tensions

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)
Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation. (Getty Images)

Turkey's lira sank to new lows on Monday as tensions between Ankara and the West combined with unconventional monetary policy and rising inflation.

The lira fell more than 2%, closing in on 10 to the dollar - a level it has never hit - after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he had ordered the expulsion of the ambassadors of the United States and nine other Western countries for demanding the release of philanthropist Osman Kavala.

Kavala has been charged with financing nationwide protests in 2013 and for involvement in a failed coup in 2016.

Lira volatility gauges jumped, dollar bonds fell, local 10-year yields moved closed to three-year highs hit last week, flirting with the 20% level.

Turkey's tension with NATO allies over Kavala comes amid heightening worries about government interventions in monetary policy, taking 2021 losses for the lira to about 24%, the worst performance among emerging market peers by a significant margin.

"If politicians make foreigners the bogeyman, it is easier to sell the pressures created by the weak lira as the price to be paid for political autonomy. That also means: a monetary policy U-turn seems less likely now. And that is bad news for the lira," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank.

Turkey's state lenders Ziraat Bank, Vakifbank and Halkbank lowered their loan rates by up to 200 basis points according to the products and maturities, they said in a joint statement on Monday, following last week's central bank policy easing.



Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
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Oil Prices Steady as Markets Weigh Demand against US Inventories

FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)
FILE - Pump jacks extract oil from beneath the ground in North Dakota, May 19, 2021. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown, File)

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large US fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22.

Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in US fuel stockpiles pressured prices.

"The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces - seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger US dollar in the medium term ... that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further," said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere.

"Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays," the analysts said.

The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing.

The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing.

Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week.

The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's entrance into the White House on Jan. 20.

Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump's administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA's Wong said.