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OPEC+ Expected to Stay the Course on Oil Output Plans

OPEC+ is expected to rubber stamp a planned output increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. Reuters
OPEC+ is expected to rubber stamp a planned output increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. Reuters
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OPEC+ Expected to Stay the Course on Oil Output Plans

OPEC+ is expected to rubber stamp a planned output increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. Reuters
OPEC+ is expected to rubber stamp a planned output increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December. Reuters

An OPEC+ committee largely stuck to forecasts of a strong demand rebound this year and next ahead of a meeting next week, at which the group is expected to rubber stamp a planned output increase of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) in December.

The Joint Technical Committee (JTC), which met on Thursday, now expects oil demand to grow by 5.7 million bpd in 2021, 120,000 bpd below OPEC's forecast in its latest monthly report, two OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

The JTC left its demand forecast for next year steady at 4.2 million bpd, one of the sources said.

That source said the revision for 2021 was "nothing to worry about" because it was an update of actual data and rounding.

OPEC+ forecasts are still higher than those of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects oil demand to grow by 5.5 million bpd in 2021 and 3.3 million bpd in 2022.

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and their allies - collectively known as OPEC+ - meet on Nov. 4 to decide output policy.

This week Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters he expected OPEC+ to go ahead with its planned increase for December, as previously agreed.

"Demand (for oil) can decline as there is still uncertainty. We also see there is yet another pandemic wave spreading across the world," Novak said.

That view was echoed by other ministers in the group.

"The situation of the oil market indicates that the increase in December ... should not exceed 400,000 bpd," state news agency APS quoted Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab as saying on Thursday.

Oil prices were trading above $84 a barrel on Friday, within sight of a three-year high of $86.70 hit this week.

Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman twice dismissed calls this week by major consumer nations to speed the rate of OPEC+ production increases, saying the group does not expect crude oil shortages in the market.

"With OECD commercial oil inventories 5.4% below the five-year average and demand rapidly normalizing, OPEC+’s preference to keep production policy unchanged reflects an alliance that is significantly more tolerant of higher prices," JP Morgan said in a note.

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Putin Says Recession in Russia 'Must Not Be Allowed to Happen'

Putin wants officials to keep a 'close eye on all indicators of the health of our industries, companies and even individual enterprises'. Olga MALTSEVA / AFP
Putin wants officials to keep a 'close eye on all indicators of the health of our industries, companies and even individual enterprises'. Olga MALTSEVA / AFP
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Putin Says Recession in Russia 'Must Not Be Allowed to Happen'

Putin wants officials to keep a 'close eye on all indicators of the health of our industries, companies and even individual enterprises'. Olga MALTSEVA / AFP
Putin wants officials to keep a 'close eye on all indicators of the health of our industries, companies and even individual enterprises'. Olga MALTSEVA / AFP

President Vladimir Putin on Friday urged officials not to let Russia fall into recession "under any circumstances", as some in his own government warned of a hit to economic growth.

Economists have warned for months of a slowdown in the Russian economy, with the country posting its slowest quarterly expansion in two years for the first quarter of 2025, reported AFP.

The Kremlin has said this was to be expected after two years of rapid growth as it ramped up military expenditure to fund the Ukraine campaign, but officials including the country's economy minister have raised alarm about possible pain ahead.

"Some specialists and experts are pointing to the risks of stagnation and even a recession," Putin told attendees at Russia's flagship economic forum in Saint Petersburg.

"This must not be allowed to happen under any circumstances," he said.

"We need to pursue a competent, well-thought-out budgetary, tax and monetary policy," he added.

The Russian economy grew in 2023 and 2024 despite the West's sweeping sanctions, with massive state spending on the military powering a robust expansion.

But analysts have long warned that heavy public investment in the defense industry is no longer enough to keep Russia's economy growing and does not reflect a real increase in productivity.

At his address to the forum on Friday, Putin was upbeat about Russia's economic prospects and denied the economy was being driven solely by the defense and energy industries.

"Yes, of course, the defense industry played its part in this regard, but so did the financial and IT industries," he said.

He said the economy needed "balanced growth" and called on officials to keep a "close eye on all indicators of the health of our industries, companies and even individual enterprises."