Libya's 5+5 Commission Meeting Kicks Off in Cairo

Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya Jan Kubis (UNSMIL)
Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya Jan Kubis (UNSMIL)
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Libya's 5+5 Commission Meeting Kicks Off in Cairo

Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya Jan Kubis (UNSMIL)
Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya Jan Kubis (UNSMIL)

Libya's 5+5 Joint Military Commission (JMC) launched on Saturday a new round of UN-sponsored talks in Egypt's capital Cairo to discuss plans for the pullout of foreign forces from the countries neighboring Libya, Sudan, Niger, and Chad.

During the opening session, head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Jan Kubis, expressed his appreciation for the willingness of the representatives of Chad, Niger, and Sudan to work with the 5+5 JMC on the withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign fighters from Libya, in a way that does not affect the stability in their countries and the region.

Kubis pointed out that the UN mission will continue to help Libya restore its stability, unity, and full sovereignty.

He lauded the "tireless efforts" of the JMC to implement the ceasefire agreement, starting with maintaining its continuity, opening the airspace, exchanging detainees, making a joint effort to secure the artificial river, and opening the coastal road.

Kubis said that the comprehensive Action Plan, signed by the JMC during its recent meeting in Geneva, will serve as the cornerstone for the gradual, balanced, and sequenced withdrawal of mercenaries, foreign fighters, and foreign forces from Libyan territory.

The official stressed that the action plan is a Libyan plan approved by the JMC and enjoys the support of the Libyan authorities, adding that it is also a plan-led and nationally owned, carrying tangible ideas and determinants of implementation.

He added that the plan is essential for a long path towards peace, stability, security and cooperation, and sustainable development in Libya and the region.

Kubis explained that the meeting, and all subsequent meetings, are only the first steps in preparing a concrete implementation plan for the withdrawal of all mercenaries, foreign fighters, and forces from Libya, which is also crucial in light of the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections.

"I would like to express my hope that your meeting in Cairo will result in a mutual understanding of major building blocks and coordination mechanisms necessary for the withdrawal and will enable agreeing on the first steps of the withdrawal process that will take fully into account the needs and concerns of Libya and its neighbors," said Kubis.

"I count on your full cooperation as well as the support of the African Union in this noble and critically important endeavor."

Meanwhile, Libyan Foreign Minister Najla al-Manqoush warned of the "real threat" of a civil war erupting after the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections.

Speaking to BBC, Maqoush hoped "free and fair" elections would be held despite the security issues, which she trusted won't affect the electoral process.

The war will bring the country back to square one, which means the presence of weapons and foreign influence affecting the elections, said the minister, noting that "there is always hope."

She urged all parties to participate in the democratic process, expecting Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the commander-in-chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA), to accept the elections' results.

Haftar is in the country's east and temporarily retired from his position in preparation for the upcoming presidential elections.



Netanyahu’s Messages: Beyond Türkiye, Closer to Tel Aviv

Men inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike on Thursday morning, following the bombing in southern Hama Province (AFP). 
Men inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike on Thursday morning, following the bombing in southern Hama Province (AFP). 
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Netanyahu’s Messages: Beyond Türkiye, Closer to Tel Aviv

Men inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike on Thursday morning, following the bombing in southern Hama Province (AFP). 
Men inspect the site of an Israeli airstrike on Thursday morning, following the bombing in southern Hama Province (AFP). 

Following a series of intensified Israeli airstrikes on Damascus and the airports in Homs and Hama, as well as a ground incursion into the city of Nawa near Daraa, Israeli officials on Thursday escalated their rhetoric, issuing fresh threats to the Syrian leadership and warning of further military action—this time citing concerns over Turkish military activity in the region.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar voiced particular alarm over Türkiye’s growing role in Syria, Lebanon, and beyond. Speaking at a press conference in Paris, he said: “They are doing everything they can to turn Syria into a Turkish protectorate. That is clearly their intention.”

Defense Minister Israel Katz echoed this sentiment, stating that Israel “will not allow Damascus to become a security threat” to Israel.

Rising Concern Over Türkiye’s Military Footprint in Syria

Military officials in Tel Aviv confirm that Israel sees Türkiye’s growing military presence in Syria as a serious concern. Their fear stems from two key issues: first, Ankara’s reported efforts to rebuild the Syrian army along the lines of its own modernized military model; and second, its apparent goal of establishing a long-term military foothold inside Syrian territory.

Israeli defense sources point out that Türkiye’s armed forces operate based on a traditional ground warfare doctrine, featuring large-scale armored divisions and well-equipped infantry units—similar in style to the Russian military. This stands in contrast to the Israeli military, which relies heavily on air superiority and has long underinvested in ground forces.

Given this disparity, any significant Turkish deployment in Syria could pose a direct challenge to Israeli operations and raise the risk of confrontation.

While the recent Israeli airstrikes targeted mostly long-defunct Syrian military sites—many of which have been hit repeatedly over the years—the attacks signal a broader strategic shift.

In the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault on southern Israel, the Israeli military has moved away from a defensive posture of deterrence and containment. In its place, the army has embraced a more aggressive doctrine built around preemptive action.

This shift was further underscored by the appointment of a new chief of staff from the Armored Corps—the first in three decades—signaling a renewed emphasis on ground operations and offensive initiatives.

Not Just a Message to Türkiye

Despite the messaging around Türkiye’s presence, analysts say the recent wave of Israeli military action also serves broader geopolitical aims.

After failing to persuade Washington to pressure Ankara to scale back its involvement in Syria, Israel now appears determined to assert its own red lines militarily. The airstrike on the Scientific Studies and Research Center in Damascus—a facility already destroyed multiple times since 2018—was widely viewed as symbolic.

Israeli officials say the intended audience for that particular strike was Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, whom Israeli intelligence continues to refer to by his former nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. By launching the attack during the Eid al-Fitr holiday, Israel aimed to send a clear message: there will be no return to normalcy in Syria without accounting for Israeli interests.

Among those interests is normalization. Last month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his desire to see Syria and Lebanon join the Abraham Accords and establish formal diplomatic ties with Israel.

Hardline figures within Netanyahu’s coalition believe Israel currently holds a strategic upper hand. As right-wing think tank head Meir Ben-Shabbat recently wrote: “Israel is in its strongest position ever. It is transforming the Middle East, expanding its military capabilities, and pushing back the Iranian axis—while Syria is at its weakest.”

For many in Israel’s ruling right, this is an ideal moment to push for a peace agreement with Syria, possibly even one involving Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Golan Heights.

The Real Audience: Domestic Israel

Still, perhaps the most significant message behind the military campaign is directed not at Ankara, Damascus, or even Tehran—but at Tel Aviv.

As protests against Netanyahu’s leadership have grown louder in recent months, military escalation has served as a convenient political shield. The wars in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, and Lebanon dominate public attention and have largely sidelined anti-government demonstrations.

“Netanyahu’s government must go, but we won’t take to the streets while our sons are fighting,” has become a common refrain among many Israelis who oppose his leadership but remain reluctant to protest during wartime.

By maintaining a state of conflict, Netanyahu is not only securing his coalition’s survival but also enabling his allies to advance a hardline agenda—particularly on the Palestinian issue—that would have faced greater resistance in peacetime.

Critics warn that this strategy, while politically expedient, comes at a steep cost to Israel’s democratic institutions, its judiciary, and the long-term stability of the region.