Bahrain Details Fiscal Balance Plan

General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. Picture taken May 2, 2020. (Reuters)
General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. Picture taken May 2, 2020. (Reuters)
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Bahrain Details Fiscal Balance Plan

General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. Picture taken May 2, 2020. (Reuters)
General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. Picture taken May 2, 2020. (Reuters)

Bahrain on Sunday gave details of a new economic growth and fiscal balance plan that pushes a zero-deficit target back by two years to 2024 from 2022 and increases value-added tax to 10 percent.

A government statement said the updated fiscal balance program also included reducing expenditure and project spend and streamlining distribution of cash subsidies to citizens.

The government also announced a strategic projects plan that would catalyze over $30 billion of investments and a regulatory reform package aimed at supporting $2.5 billion of foreign direct investment by 2023.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which in 2018 extended a $10 billion aid package to Bahrain, last month reiterated support for Manama’s budget plans, a move expected to help their neighbor in the debt capital markets despite delays in plans to fix its heavily indebted finances.

Last month Bahrain said that due to the coronavirus crisis last year, it had postponed the target year for a balanced budget to 2024 and announced plans to hike a value-added tax to boost state coffers.

The fiscal balance program - a set of reforms aimed at balancing the budget - was linked to the pledged $10 billion.

The ministers of finance of wealthier Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE met with Bahrain’s finance minister on Oct. 19 to discuss Bahrain’s progress in improving its finances.

"The ministers welcomed the efforts made by the government of Bahrain in implementing the Fiscal Balance Program, and the progress made by the government despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic," the three countries said in a joint statement.

"The Ministers affirmed their support to the Kingdom of Bahrain’s efforts in pursuing further reforms to enhance fiscal stability and strengthen sustainable economic growth."

Bahrain’s delaying of its fiscal balance program, which pushed back the zero-deficit target by two years, was seen as unlikely to deter investors from buying its debt due to expectations of continued support from richer Gulf allies, bankers and analysts have previously told Reuters.

Bahrain’s public debt climbed to 133 percent of gross domestic product last year from 102 percent in 2019, the International Monetary Fund said.

S&P forecasts Bahrain’s budget deficit, which was 16.8 percent of GDP last year, to average 5 percent between 2021 and 2024, excluding the impact of a possible hike in value-added tax.



IMF: Pakistan Wins More Financing Assurances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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IMF: Pakistan Wins More Financing Assurances from Saudi Arabia, UAE, China

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Pakistan has received “significant financing assurances” from China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates linked to a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) program that go beyond a deal to roll over $12 billion in bilateral loans owed to them by Islamabad, IMF Pakistan Mission Chief Nathan Porter said on Thursday.

Porter declined to provide details of additional financing amounts committed by the three countries but said they would come on top of the debt rollover.

The IMF's Executive Board on Wednesday approved a new $7 billion loan for cash-strapped Pakistan, more than two months after the two sides said they had reached an agreement.

The loan — which Islamabad will receive in installments over 37 months — is aimed at boosting Pakistan's ailing economy.

“I won't go into the specifics, but UAE, China and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia all provided significant financing assurances joined up in this program,” Porter told reporters on a conference call.

The global lender said its immediate disbursement will be about $1 billion.

In a statement issued Thursday, the IMF praised Pakistan for taking key steps to restore economic stability. Growth has rebounded, inflation has fallen to single digits, and a calm foreign exchange market have allowed the rebuilding of reserve buffers.

But it also criticized authorities. The IMF warned that, despite the progress, Pakistan’s vulnerabilities and structural challenges remained formidable.

It said a difficult business environment, weak governance, and an outsized role of the state hindered investment, while the tax base remained too narrow.

“Spending on health and education has been insufficient to tackle persistent poverty, and inadequate infrastructure investment has limited economic potential and left Pakistan vulnerable to the impact of climate change,” it warned.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in a statement hailed the deal that his team had been negotiating with the IMF since June.

Sharif, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, told Pakistani media that the country had fulfilled all of the lender’s conditions, with help from China and Saudi Arabia.

“Without their support, this would not have been possible,” he said, without elaborating on what assistance Beijing and Riyadh had provided to get the deal over the line.

The Pakistani government has vowed to increase its tax intake, in line with IMF requirements, despite protests in recent months by retailers and some opposition parties over the new tax scheme and high electricity rates.

Pakistan for decades has been relying on IMF loans to meet its economic needs.

The latest economic crisis has been the most prolonged and has seen Pakistan facing its highest-ever inflation, pushing the country to the brink of a sovereign default last summer before an IMF bailout.

Inflation has since tempered, and credit ratings agency Moody’s has upgraded Pakistan’s local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings to “Caa2” from “Caa3”, citing improving macroeconomic conditions and moderately better government liquidity and external positions.