Bahrain Details Fiscal Balance Plan

General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. Picture taken May 2, 2020. (Reuters)
General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. Picture taken May 2, 2020. (Reuters)
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Bahrain Details Fiscal Balance Plan

General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. Picture taken May 2, 2020. (Reuters)
General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. Picture taken May 2, 2020. (Reuters)

Bahrain on Sunday gave details of a new economic growth and fiscal balance plan that pushes a zero-deficit target back by two years to 2024 from 2022 and increases value-added tax to 10 percent.

A government statement said the updated fiscal balance program also included reducing expenditure and project spend and streamlining distribution of cash subsidies to citizens.

The government also announced a strategic projects plan that would catalyze over $30 billion of investments and a regulatory reform package aimed at supporting $2.5 billion of foreign direct investment by 2023.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which in 2018 extended a $10 billion aid package to Bahrain, last month reiterated support for Manama’s budget plans, a move expected to help their neighbor in the debt capital markets despite delays in plans to fix its heavily indebted finances.

Last month Bahrain said that due to the coronavirus crisis last year, it had postponed the target year for a balanced budget to 2024 and announced plans to hike a value-added tax to boost state coffers.

The fiscal balance program - a set of reforms aimed at balancing the budget - was linked to the pledged $10 billion.

The ministers of finance of wealthier Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE met with Bahrain’s finance minister on Oct. 19 to discuss Bahrain’s progress in improving its finances.

"The ministers welcomed the efforts made by the government of Bahrain in implementing the Fiscal Balance Program, and the progress made by the government despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic," the three countries said in a joint statement.

"The Ministers affirmed their support to the Kingdom of Bahrain’s efforts in pursuing further reforms to enhance fiscal stability and strengthen sustainable economic growth."

Bahrain’s delaying of its fiscal balance program, which pushed back the zero-deficit target by two years, was seen as unlikely to deter investors from buying its debt due to expectations of continued support from richer Gulf allies, bankers and analysts have previously told Reuters.

Bahrain’s public debt climbed to 133 percent of gross domestic product last year from 102 percent in 2019, the International Monetary Fund said.

S&P forecasts Bahrain’s budget deficit, which was 16.8 percent of GDP last year, to average 5 percent between 2021 and 2024, excluding the impact of a possible hike in value-added tax.



Lebanon Bonds Rally to Fresh Two-year High on Ceasefire Hopes

A man counts Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon October 1, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A man counts Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon October 1, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Lebanon Bonds Rally to Fresh Two-year High on Ceasefire Hopes

A man counts Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon October 1, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A man counts Lebanese pounds at a currency exchange shop in Beirut, Lebanon October 1, 2020. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Lebanon's deeply distressed sovereign dollar bonds hit a fresh two-year high on Tuesday as investors bet that a potential ceasefire with Israel could improve the country's prospects.

The bonds, which are still trading below 10 cents on the dollar, have gained more than 3% this week. The 2031 maturity was biding at 9.3 cents on the dollar, its highest since May 2022, according to Reuters.

"Some investors are mulling if it is a right time to buy, since a ceasefire is the first step needed to at some point in time restructure bonds," said Bruno Gennari, emerging markets strategist with KNG Securities International.

Israel's cabinet is expected to convene on Tuesday to discuss, and likely approve, a US plan for a ceasefire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah, a senior Israeli official said.

Israeli airstrikes, which continued on Tuesday, have decimated Lebanon's infrastructure and killed thousands.

But the counterintuitive rally, the second since Israel began bombing the country in September, was driven by bets that the deal could jolt Lebanon's fractured political system and revive efforts to pull the country out of default.