US, Russian Officials to Meet Soon over Syria to Avert Military, Humanitarian Clash

A US military vehicle seen in northeastern Syria on November 1, 2021. (AFP)
A US military vehicle seen in northeastern Syria on November 1, 2021. (AFP)
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US, Russian Officials to Meet Soon over Syria to Avert Military, Humanitarian Clash

A US military vehicle seen in northeastern Syria on November 1, 2021. (AFP)
A US military vehicle seen in northeastern Syria on November 1, 2021. (AFP)

US National Security Council Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin and the Russian president’s special envoy for Syria Alexander Lavrentiev are scheduled to hold official talks on Syria in Geneva next week.

They are hoping to pave the way to avoiding a diplomatic clash as the deadline looms to extend the United Nations Security Council resolution on humanitarian cross-border aid deliveries to the war-torn country. The deadline is early next year.

The meeting will also be held as the military situation in northeastern Syria grows even more complicated with the deployment of American, Russian and Turkish troops and the regime, as well as Kurdish forces and factions allied to each of Ankara and Tehran.

Moreover, Washington is hoping to coordinate stances with its allies through hosting an expanded meeting for major and regional powers on the sidelines of next month’s conference for the international coalition fighting ISIS. The conference will be held in Brussels. A similar one was held in Rome in June.

Moscow is also organizing a conference for the “Astana guarantors” that will bring together the foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey. They are set to meet next month to coordinate their positions in Syria.

Soon after President Joe Biden was elected his political team sought Russia’s approval for the extension of the aid resolution. Washington offered several concessions to Moscow so that the resolution would be passed. After several amendments, including Russia’s addition of funding of the “early recovery” in Syria to the draft, the resolution was passed.

In return, Washington received verbal pledges from Moscow over moving forward the peace process and the work of the Constitutional Committee, consolidating the ceasefire and maintaining the borders of the three zones of influence in Syria.

The McGurk-Vershinin channel of communication now has political and humanitarian dimensions.

Recent weeks, have seen Russia expand its deployment in regions east of the Euphrates River near where American forces are present.

Russia has dispatched fighter jets to Qamishli and Raqqa and expanded its patrols with the aim of “deterring” Turkey from carrying out a new incursion against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that are allied with the US.

McGurk is not opposed to these Russian moves, but he is aware that Moscow’s expanded deployment will increase pressure on American forces to withdraw from Syria, significantly in wake of the pullout from Afghanistan.

Washington, meanwhile, is encouraging the SDF and its political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), to hold dialogue with Damascus. Moscow is also asking that Damascus show some political flexibility with the Kurds. Prominent Kurdish official Ilham Ahmad was notably recently in Washington and Moscow, while Lavrentiev was in Damascus.

The upcoming dialogue between Russia and the US may act as a test to determine whether political dialogue between the Kurds and Damascus may kick off.

As the deadline for extending the UN resolution approaches, Moscow is unlikely to oppose its renewal since the aid is also going to regime-held areas. The McGurk-Vershinin meeting will likely be an opportunity for new negotiations over a new deal that would see the Americans offer guarantees to implement the articles related to the “early recovery” stipulated by Russia. In return, Moscow would agree to extending the resolution.



What to Know about the Tensions between Iran and the US before Their Third Round of Talks

The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
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What to Know about the Tensions between Iran and the US before Their Third Round of Talks

The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)
The flags of US and Iran are displayed in Muscat, Oman, 25 April 2025. Iran and US will hold third round of nuclear talks on 26 April 2025, in Muscat. (EPA)

Iran and the United States will hold talks Saturday in Oman, their third round of negotiations over Tehran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program.

The talks follow a first round held in Muscat, Oman, where the two sides spoke face to face. They then met again in Rome last weekend before this scheduled meeting again in Muscat.

Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iran as part of his “maximum pressure” campaign targeting the country. He has repeatedly suggested military action against Iran remained a possibility, while emphasizing he still believed a new deal could be reached by writing a letter to Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to jumpstart these talks.

Khamenei has warned Iran would respond to any attack with an attack of its own.

Here’s what to know about the letter, Iran’s nuclear program and the tensions that have stalked relations between Tehran and Washington since the 1979 revolution.

Why did Trump write the letter? Trump dispatched the letter to Khamenei on March 5, then gave a television interview the next day in which he acknowledged sending it. He said: “I’ve written them a letter saying, ‘I hope you’re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it’s going to be a terrible thing.’”

Since returning to the White House, the president has been pushing for talks while ratcheting up sanctions and suggesting a military strike by Israel or the US could target Iranian nuclear sites.

A previous letter from Trump during his first term drew an angry retort from the supreme leader.

But Trump’s letters to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in his first term led to face-to-face meetings, though no deals to limit Pyongyang’s atomic bombs and a missile program capable of reaching the continental US.

How did the first round go? Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, hosted the first round of talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. The two men met face to face after indirect talks and immediately agreed to this second round in Rome.

Witkoff later made a television appearance in which he suggested 3.67% enrichment for Iran could be something the countries could agree on. But that’s exactly the terms set by the 2015 nuclear deal struck under US President Barack Obama, from which Trump unilaterally withdrew America.

Witkoff hours later issued a statement underlining something: “A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal.” Araghchi and Iranian officials have latched onto Witkoff’s comments in recent days as a sign that America was sending it mixed signals about the negotiations.

Yet the Rome talks ended up with the two sides agreeing to starting expert-level talks this Saturday. Analysts described that as a positive sign, though much likely remains to be agreed before reaching a tentative deal.

Why does Iran’s nuclear program worry the West? Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels of 60%, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilograms (661 pounds). The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s program put its stockpile at 8,294.4 kilograms (18,286 pounds) as it enriches a fraction of it to 60% purity.

US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, has warned in a televised interview that his country has the capability to build nuclear weapons, but it is not pursuing it and has no problem with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspections. However, he said if the US or Israel were to attack Iran over the issue, the country would have no choice but to move toward nuclear weapon development.

“If you make a mistake regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, you will force Iran to take that path, because it must defend itself,” he said.

Why are relations so bad between Iran and the US? Iran was once one of the US’s top allies in the Middle East under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA had fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule.

But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. The revolution followed, led by Khomeini, and created Iran’s theocratic government.

Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed. The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s saw the US back Saddam Hussein. The “Tanker War” during that conflict saw the US launch a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea, while the US later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the American military said it mistook for a warplane.

Iran and the US have see-sawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since, with relations peaking when Tehran made the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking tensions in the Middle East that persist today.