Turkish Lira Pares Losses after Touching All-Time Low Near 11 to the Dollar

A file photo shows a money changer uses a machine to count Turkish liras in the border city of Hatay, Turkey. (Reuters)
A file photo shows a money changer uses a machine to count Turkish liras in the border city of Hatay, Turkey. (Reuters)
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Turkish Lira Pares Losses after Touching All-Time Low Near 11 to the Dollar

A file photo shows a money changer uses a machine to count Turkish liras in the border city of Hatay, Turkey. (Reuters)
A file photo shows a money changer uses a machine to count Turkish liras in the border city of Hatay, Turkey. (Reuters)

Turkey's lira sank to an all-time low of near 11 to the dollar on Thursday before paring losses, ahead of a central bank meeting that is expected to cut rates further even as the currency falls sharply and inflation remains near 20%.

The lira stood 10.85 against the dollar at 0408 GMT, after earlier declining as much as 10.98, bringing its losses since Tuesday's close to more than 5.7%, Reuters reported.

The currency's decline in recent weeks over concerns of further easing from the central bank were exacerbated on Wednesday by President Tayyip Erdogan's comments that he will continue his battle against interest rate "to the end".

Erdogan's insistence on cutting rates and his frequent overhauls of the central bank's leadership, partly over policy disagreements, have severely damaged the central bank's ncredibility over the years, battering the lira.

The central bank, which says price pressures are temporary, began giving dovish messages in September and embarked on an easing cycle later that month. It has since slashed its policy rate by 300 basis points to 16%.

The aggressive easing bucked expectations and left Turkey virtually alone in a world of policy tightening. But it delivered stimulus long sought by Erdogan.

"Even a hold (or a rate hike) may only provide short-term relief for the currency as much will then depend on the president's reaction and whether he decides to part ways with another central bank governor," said Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

The lira is down more than 32% against the dollar this year and its decline pushes prices higher in Turkey via imports.



Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
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Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo

Oil gained more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday, rebounding on technical factors and bargain hunting after a decision by OPEC+ to boost output sent prices down the previous session, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted.

Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 0623 GMT, the first time gain after six consecutive declines, while US West Texas Intermediate crude added $1.11 to $58.24 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since February 2021 on Monday, driven by an OPEC+ decision over the weekend to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month.

"Today’s slight rebound in oil prices appears more technical than fundamental," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. "Persistent headwinds including a pivotal shift in OPEC+ production strategy, uncertain demand amid US tariff risks, and price forecast downgrades are continuing to weigh on the broader price movement."

Driven by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost over 10% in six straight sessions and dipped over 20% since April when US President Donald Trump's tariff shocks prompted increased bets on a slowdown in the global economy.

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was seen supporting prices on Tuesday.

"China also reopened today, and being the largest importer, buyers would have likely jumped to secure oil at current low levels," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

Also lending some support was data showing a pick-up in services sector's growth in the US, the world's major oil consumer, as orders increased.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 51.6 last month from 50.8 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 50.2.

The US Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62 a barrel, citing "a rocky road ahead for fundamentals" amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+'s pivot in its production strategy.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast on Monday by $2-3 per barrel, as they now expect another 400,000 barrels per day production increase by OPEC+ in July.