Syrian War Brought Together Putin, Khamenei, Will 'Normalization' Pull them Apart?

Syrians wave the national, Iranian and Russian flags in Damascus in April 2019. (AP)
Syrians wave the national, Iranian and Russian flags in Damascus in April 2019. (AP)
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Syrian War Brought Together Putin, Khamenei, Will 'Normalization' Pull them Apart?

Syrians wave the national, Iranian and Russian flags in Damascus in April 2019. (AP)
Syrians wave the national, Iranian and Russian flags in Damascus in April 2019. (AP)

One of the main drivers of the initiatives, raids and pressure on Syria is the Iranian presence there and questions about the future of its military entrenchment there.

Iran is largely present, both directly and indirectly, in the recent contacts and disclosed and undisclosed meetings that have been held with Damascus and Syrian president Bashar Assad.

Damascus and Tehran have formed a "strategic relationship" since Iran's 1979 revolution and it has developed even further in wake of the eruption of the conflict in Syria in 2011. Iran's intervention in the war has helped keep the regime alive before Russia's military intervention in 2015 swooped in to play the role of "savior and victor".

Iran has sought to entrench itself further in the Middle East through the Syrian "gate" in order to protect its "backyard" in Iraq, link Baghdad to Beirut through Damascus and establish an opening to the Mediterranean. It also sought to establish a foothold that would put Israel within the range of its weapons.

The United States sought to confront Iran's entrenchment by establishing its own military presence in northeastern Syria and in the al-Tanf military base, to block the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut route.

Iran responded to that move by opening an alternate land route between Tehran, Damascus and Beirut through the Alboukamal and Deir Ezzor regions in Syria.

Israel, meanwhile, set its own red lines against Iran's entrenchment and delivery of sophisticated and advanced weapons to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Turkey, which is also involved militarily in Syria, has sought to confront Iran's presence south of its border. It did so by coexisting with it in line with the 2017 Astana process that Moscow was also party to.

The Astana process, with Ankara, Tehran and Moscow, led to understandings between the parties over the division of influence in Syria against the other main foreign parties involved in Syria, namely the US and Israel.

Some Arab countries, meanwhile, had banked on Russia in reining in Iran's influence, while others had turned to Washington when Donald Trump was still in the White House. Western countries have in the meantime insisted that all foreign forces, except Russia's, withdraw from Syria as a condition to normalizing ties with Damascus or helping in reconstructing the war-torn country.

The calculations have all changed now give the changes in Syria and the region and the arrival of Joe Biden to the White House.

Biden has adopted a different approach than Trump and like Barack Obama, has pitted high hopes on the nuclear negotiations with Iran in Vienna. When Tehran tests the waters by attacking the al-Tanf base or stokes tensions in the Gulf waters, Washington weighs its response by assessing how much its retaliation may impact the negotiations.

As it stands, the room for confrontation is now limited between two options: the first is engaging Assad and ending Damascus' isolation with the hope of easing Iran's influence. The purpose would not be to immediately shift Syria from the "resistance alliance", led by Iran, to the "moderate camp". Rather, the aim is for Damascus to be open between the two camps because this is the realistic option and because some Arab countries have signed normalization deals with Israel and left the door open for dialogue with Iran.

Some Arab countries have indeed forged ahead with normalization based on this assumption, while others believe the conditions are not ripe yet. They are instead demanding that Damascus take "tangible steps" and begin reining in Iran in Syria and the region.

The second option lies in banking on the leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ability to rein in Iran. This option stems from the position that the war had brought together Putin and Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Syria, but peace and normalization will pull them apart. Iran wants to support the militias, establish a regime that is subordinate to it and divide Syria. Russia, on the other hand, wants to strengthen the Syrian army and preserve the unity of the state. In other words, it supports the "Russian Syria" against the "Iranian Syria".

Israel also figures in the picture. It wants to receive logistic and intelligence support from the US as it raids Iranian positions in Syria. It wants to sever the Tehran-Damascus-Beirut route. It is also hoping that its normalization of relations with Arab countries would open Damascus' eyes to other opportunities that would end its isolation. It is also relying on its military strikes on Syria and military understandings with Russia.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had struck a deep understanding with Putin that prioritizes Israel's security. This understanding had also received the blessing of Trump and his team. This allowed Israel free reign in striking Iran in Syria to prevent its entrenchment.

Netanyahu's successor, Naftali Bennett, met with Putin in Sochi on October 22 and largely received the same reassurances over Syria that his predecessor did. He appeared to have received approval to expand attacks on Iranian targets as evidences in strikes on the outskirts of Damascus and the intensification of raids, whether from Lebanese airspace or from above the al-Tanf base of occupied Golan Heights.

The nuclear negotiations are significant for the fate of Syria and Iran's presence there. One must monitor the course of Israeli strikes on Syria and the various diplomatic visits to Damascus to determine just how much Iran will remain entrenched there or not.



‘Our Children Are Dying Slowly’ Says Father Searching for Food in Gaza 

Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip May 21, 2025. (Reuters)
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip May 21, 2025. (Reuters)
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‘Our Children Are Dying Slowly’ Says Father Searching for Food in Gaza 

Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip May 21, 2025. (Reuters)
Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house, in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip May 21, 2025. (Reuters)

Father of four Mahmoud al-Haw and other Palestinians crowd around a soup kitchen in war-ravaged Gaza, surging forward and frantically waving pots.

Small children, squashed at the front, are in tears. One of them holds up a plastic basin hoping for some ladles of soup. Haw pushes forward in the scrum until he receives his share.

Haw does this every day because he fears his children are starving. He sets out through the ruins of Jabalia in northern Gaza in search of food, waiting in panicked crowds for up to six hours to get barely enough to feed his family.

Some days he gets lucky and can find lentil soup. Other days he returns empty-handed.

"I have a sick daughter. I can't provide her with anything. There is no bread, there is nothing," said Haw, 39.

"I'm here since eight in the morning, just to get one plate for six people while it is not enough for one person."

Israel has blocked the entry of medical, food and fuel supplies into Gaza since the start of March, prompting international experts to warn of looming famine in the besieged enclave that is home to 2.3 million Palestinians.

Some trucks were allowed to enter Gaza on Monday, after Israel agreed to allow limited humanitarian deliveries to resume following mounting international pressure. But by Tuesday night, the United Nations said no aid had been distributed.

And as well as aid shortages, fighting in Gaza has intensified. Last week the Israeli military announced the start of a major new operation against the Hamas group. Medics in the territory say Israeli strikes have killed more than 500 people in the past eight days.

Israel's stepped-up campaign has strained its relations with much of the world. European countries including France, Germany and Britain have said the situation in Gaza is intolerable, and even the support of its closest ally, the United States, now appears to be wavering.

Israel denies that Gaza is facing a hunger crisis. It has said its blockade is aimed in part at preventing Hamas from diverting and seizing aid supplies. Hamas has denied doing so and accuses Israel of using starvation as a military tactic.

DAILY SEARCH FOR FOOD

Gazans like Haw, living in the epicenter of the war that is now in its 20th month, have no voice in the debate.

Haw's world consists of walking to food kitchens each day, through the destruction wrought by Israeli bombardments in the war that was triggered by the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which gunmen killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel's military campaign in Gaza has killed more than 53,000 people, according to Palestinian health authorities.

Even before the war - fought intensively around the family home in Jabalia, just north of Gaza City - Haw's family had its struggles. His niece, who lives with them, uses a wheelchair. His daughter has heart disease and bronchial asthma, he says.

Haw climbs the stairs to his one-room apartment, where his children wait, sitting on a mattress. There is no surprise about what he has brought home - soup again.

He puts the soup in small tin bowls and hands them to his four children and his brother's two children.

The children, quiet, eat slowly and carefully.

"Thank God, as you can see, this is breakfast, lunch and dinner, thank God," he said. The day before, he said, his family had had nothing to eat.

"I wish everyone would stand by us. Our children are dying slowly," said Haw.