Syrian War Brought Together Putin, Khamenei, Will 'Normalization' Pull them Apart?

Syrians wave the national, Iranian and Russian flags in Damascus in April 2019. (AP)
Syrians wave the national, Iranian and Russian flags in Damascus in April 2019. (AP)
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Syrian War Brought Together Putin, Khamenei, Will 'Normalization' Pull them Apart?

Syrians wave the national, Iranian and Russian flags in Damascus in April 2019. (AP)
Syrians wave the national, Iranian and Russian flags in Damascus in April 2019. (AP)

One of the main drivers of the initiatives, raids and pressure on Syria is the Iranian presence there and questions about the future of its military entrenchment there.

Iran is largely present, both directly and indirectly, in the recent contacts and disclosed and undisclosed meetings that have been held with Damascus and Syrian president Bashar Assad.

Damascus and Tehran have formed a "strategic relationship" since Iran's 1979 revolution and it has developed even further in wake of the eruption of the conflict in Syria in 2011. Iran's intervention in the war has helped keep the regime alive before Russia's military intervention in 2015 swooped in to play the role of "savior and victor".

Iran has sought to entrench itself further in the Middle East through the Syrian "gate" in order to protect its "backyard" in Iraq, link Baghdad to Beirut through Damascus and establish an opening to the Mediterranean. It also sought to establish a foothold that would put Israel within the range of its weapons.

The United States sought to confront Iran's entrenchment by establishing its own military presence in northeastern Syria and in the al-Tanf military base, to block the Tehran-Baghdad-Damascus-Beirut route.

Iran responded to that move by opening an alternate land route between Tehran, Damascus and Beirut through the Alboukamal and Deir Ezzor regions in Syria.

Israel, meanwhile, set its own red lines against Iran's entrenchment and delivery of sophisticated and advanced weapons to its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Turkey, which is also involved militarily in Syria, has sought to confront Iran's presence south of its border. It did so by coexisting with it in line with the 2017 Astana process that Moscow was also party to.

The Astana process, with Ankara, Tehran and Moscow, led to understandings between the parties over the division of influence in Syria against the other main foreign parties involved in Syria, namely the US and Israel.

Some Arab countries, meanwhile, had banked on Russia in reining in Iran's influence, while others had turned to Washington when Donald Trump was still in the White House. Western countries have in the meantime insisted that all foreign forces, except Russia's, withdraw from Syria as a condition to normalizing ties with Damascus or helping in reconstructing the war-torn country.

The calculations have all changed now give the changes in Syria and the region and the arrival of Joe Biden to the White House.

Biden has adopted a different approach than Trump and like Barack Obama, has pitted high hopes on the nuclear negotiations with Iran in Vienna. When Tehran tests the waters by attacking the al-Tanf base or stokes tensions in the Gulf waters, Washington weighs its response by assessing how much its retaliation may impact the negotiations.

As it stands, the room for confrontation is now limited between two options: the first is engaging Assad and ending Damascus' isolation with the hope of easing Iran's influence. The purpose would not be to immediately shift Syria from the "resistance alliance", led by Iran, to the "moderate camp". Rather, the aim is for Damascus to be open between the two camps because this is the realistic option and because some Arab countries have signed normalization deals with Israel and left the door open for dialogue with Iran.

Some Arab countries have indeed forged ahead with normalization based on this assumption, while others believe the conditions are not ripe yet. They are instead demanding that Damascus take "tangible steps" and begin reining in Iran in Syria and the region.

The second option lies in banking on the leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ability to rein in Iran. This option stems from the position that the war had brought together Putin and Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Syria, but peace and normalization will pull them apart. Iran wants to support the militias, establish a regime that is subordinate to it and divide Syria. Russia, on the other hand, wants to strengthen the Syrian army and preserve the unity of the state. In other words, it supports the "Russian Syria" against the "Iranian Syria".

Israel also figures in the picture. It wants to receive logistic and intelligence support from the US as it raids Iranian positions in Syria. It wants to sever the Tehran-Damascus-Beirut route. It is also hoping that its normalization of relations with Arab countries would open Damascus' eyes to other opportunities that would end its isolation. It is also relying on its military strikes on Syria and military understandings with Russia.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had struck a deep understanding with Putin that prioritizes Israel's security. This understanding had also received the blessing of Trump and his team. This allowed Israel free reign in striking Iran in Syria to prevent its entrenchment.

Netanyahu's successor, Naftali Bennett, met with Putin in Sochi on October 22 and largely received the same reassurances over Syria that his predecessor did. He appeared to have received approval to expand attacks on Iranian targets as evidences in strikes on the outskirts of Damascus and the intensification of raids, whether from Lebanese airspace or from above the al-Tanf base of occupied Golan Heights.

The nuclear negotiations are significant for the fate of Syria and Iran's presence there. One must monitor the course of Israeli strikes on Syria and the various diplomatic visits to Damascus to determine just how much Iran will remain entrenched there or not.



Fireworks, Warplanes and Axes: How France Celebrates Bastille Day

France's President Emmanuel Macron (center-L) and France's Chief of the Defense Staff General Thierry Bukhard (center-R) and French Military Governor of Paris (GMP) Loic Mizon (center-Top) review troops as they stand in the command car flanked by France's mounted Republican Guard (Guarde Republicaine) during the annual Bastille Day military parade on the Champs-Elysees Avenue in Paris on July 14, 2025. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
France's President Emmanuel Macron (center-L) and France's Chief of the Defense Staff General Thierry Bukhard (center-R) and French Military Governor of Paris (GMP) Loic Mizon (center-Top) review troops as they stand in the command car flanked by France's mounted Republican Guard (Guarde Republicaine) during the annual Bastille Day military parade on the Champs-Elysees Avenue in Paris on July 14, 2025. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
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Fireworks, Warplanes and Axes: How France Celebrates Bastille Day

France's President Emmanuel Macron (center-L) and France's Chief of the Defense Staff General Thierry Bukhard (center-R) and French Military Governor of Paris (GMP) Loic Mizon (center-Top) review troops as they stand in the command car flanked by France's mounted Republican Guard (Guarde Republicaine) during the annual Bastille Day military parade on the Champs-Elysees Avenue in Paris on July 14, 2025. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
France's President Emmanuel Macron (center-L) and France's Chief of the Defense Staff General Thierry Bukhard (center-R) and French Military Governor of Paris (GMP) Loic Mizon (center-Top) review troops as they stand in the command car flanked by France's mounted Republican Guard (Guarde Republicaine) during the annual Bastille Day military parade on the Champs-Elysees Avenue in Paris on July 14, 2025. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

Swooping warplanes, axe-carrying warriors, a drone light show over the Eiffel Tower and fireworks in nearly every French town — it must be Bastille Day.

France celebrated its biggest holiday Monday with 7,000 people marching, on horseback or riding armored vehicles along the cobblestones of the Champs-Elysees, the most iconic avenue in Paris. And there are plans for partying and pageantry around the country, said The Associated Press.

Why Bastille Day is a big deal

Parisians stormed the Bastille fortress and prison on July 14, 1789, a spark for the French Revolution that overthrew the monarchy. In the ensuing two centuries, France saw Napoleon’s empire rise and fall, more uprisings and two world wars before settling into today’s Fifth Republic, established in 1958.

Bastille Day has become a central moment for modern France, celebrating democratic freedoms and national pride, a mélange of revolutionary spirit and military prowess.

The Paris parade beneath the Arc de Triomphe so impressed visiting US President Donald Trump in 2017 that it inspired him to stage his own parade this year.

What stood out

The spectacle began on the ground, with French President Emmanuel Macron reviewing the troops and relighting the eternal flame beneath the Arc de Triomphe.

Two riders fell from their horses near the end of the parade, and it was unclear whether anyone was hurt. Such incidents happen occasionally at the annual event.

Each parade uniform has a touch of symbolism. The contingent from the French Foreign Legion was eye-catching, its bearded troops wearing leather aprons and carrying axes, a reference to their original role as route clearers for advancing armies.

The Paris event included flyovers by fighter jets, trailing red, white and blue smoke. Then the evening sees a drone light show and fireworks at the Eiffel Tower that has gotten more elaborate every year.

What’s special about this year

Every year, France hosts a special guest for Bastille Day, and this year it’s Indonesia, with President Prabowo Subianto representing the world’s largest Muslim country, which also a major Asian economic and military player.

Indonesian troops, including 200 traditional drummers, marched in Monday’s parade, and Indonesia is expected to confirm new purchases of Rafale fighter jets and other French military equipment during the visit. Prabowo, who was accused of rights abuses under Indonesia's prior dictatorship, will be treated to a special holiday dinner at the Elysée Palace.

“For us as Indonesian people, this is a very important and historic military and diplomatic collaboration,'' the commander of the Indonesian military delegation, Brig. Gen. Ferry Irawan, told The Associated Press.

Finnish troops serving in the UN force in Lebanon, and Belgian and Luxembourg troops serving in a NATO force in Romania also paraded through Paris, reflecting the increasingly international nature of the event.

Among the dignitaries invited to watch will be Fousseynou Samba Cissé, who rescued two babies from a burning apartment earlier this month and received a last-minute invitation in a phone call from Macron himself.

‘’I wasn't expecting that call,'' he told online media Brut. ‘’I feel pride.''

What’s the geopolitical backdrop

Beyond the military spectacle in Paris are growing concerns about an uncertain world. On the eve Bastille Day, Macron announced 6.5 billion euros ($7.6 billion) in extra French military spending in the next two years because of new threats ranging from Russia to terrorism and online attacks. The French leader called for intensified efforts to protect Europe and support for Ukraine.

‘’Since 1945, our freedom has never been so threatened, and never so seriously,″ Macron said. ’’We are experiencing a return to the fact of a nuclear threat, and a proliferation of major conflicts.″

Security was exceptionally tight around Paris ahead of and during the parade.

What else happens on Bastille Day

It’s a period when France bestows special awards — including the most prestigious, the Legion of Honor — on notable people. This year's recipients include Gisèle Pelicot, who became a global hero to victims of sexual violence during a four-month trial in which her husband and dozens of men were convicted of sexually assaulting her while she was drugged unconscious.

Others earning the honor are Yvette Levy, a Holocaust survivor and French Resistance fighter, and musician Pharrell Williams, designer for Louis Vuitton.

Bastille Day is also a time for family gatherings, firefighters' balls and rural festivals around France.