Syria's Return... 'Step after Step'?

Then vice president of the United States Joe Biden, left, shakes hands with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, March 10, 2011. (AP)

London: Ibrahim Hamidi

07:08-27 November 2021 AD ـ 23 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1443 AH

London: Ibrahim Hamidi

07:08-27 November 2021 AD ـ 23 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1443 AH

Syria's Return... 'Step after Step'?

Then vice president of the United States Joe Biden, left, shakes hands with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, March 10, 2011. (AP)

Once again, quiet diplomatic discussions have resumed over adopting a new approach towards Syria. This time around, they would test reaching a roadmap that addresses what is "demanded" of Damascus and its partners, and what is on "offer" to Russia by Washington and its allies.

Russia, it appears, is working on ending Damascus' isolation "one step at a time."

Washington has the means to press for its demands. It enjoys military presence in northeastern Syria, sanctions, the Caesar Act, and political isolation against Damascus - all of which it can use as conditions for the reconstruction of the war-torn country.

Moscow, meanwhile, is keen on receiving international recognition of the "legitimate government" in Damascus, ending its international isolation, reaching a settlement based on its interpretation of United Nations Security Council resolution 2254, empowering the central authority, lifting sanctions off Damascus and reconstructing Syria.

This approach has been tested secretly several times before by the Americans and Russians, but it has failed to make any breakthrough under former US President Donald Trump. Some limited progress was made through the deal in southern Syria that saw the US abandon the armed opposition and the regime's gradual return.

Under US President Joe Biden, demands have once again been made to reconsider this approach, given that the front lines in Syria between the three zones of influence have been largely unchanged since spring 2020, the country's major economic collapse and the main actors' realization that the military victory is impossible for any of them.

The proposal was kept behind closed doors and met with opposition or doubts by the active players. The US was not eager to go through with it and neither were its partners. Germany and France in particular were not to keen on it given their bitter experience in negotiating with Russia.

Moscow, itself, appeared committed to the Astana process along with Turkey and Iran. It too was not keen on mass negotiations over this Syria approach, rather, it preferred bilateral talks and understandings with Washington.

New developments, however, have prompted discussions over the possibility of reviving the "step for step" approach.

New factors have come into the picture. Besides the unchanging front lines and the ongoing economic crisis, Arab countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, have been taking steps to normalize ties with Damascus.

The main new factor, however, that may make this approach viable is the Biden administration's lowering of its demands in Syria. Russia, for example, had insisted that the US abandon its demand for regime change in Damascus, and indeed it has happened. Just days ago the White House's Middle East coordinator, Brett McGurk said Washington is giving up its "regime change policies" that it had adopted in wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Washington's goals in Syria are now limited to preserving the gains in wake of the defeat of ISIS, ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid, maintaining the ceasefire, supporting the political settlement based on resolution 2254 and holding war criminals to account.

This leaves greater room to work with Russia in humanitarian assistance, easing American sanctions, not obstructing any Arab normalization with Damascus, supporting economic projects, such as the Arab Gas Pipeline, and ending the veto on funding UN agency projects for "early recovery" in various sectors.

As it stands, the upcoming meetings that will be held over Syria will be important in testing whether the "step for step" approach is successful. Eyes will be turned to a meeting called for by Washington with its Arab and international allies in Brussels on December 2 and the ministerial meeting between Russia, Turkey and Iran in Astana on December 21.

What the US has to offer is clear, but it remains to be seen what Russia and its partners can bring to the table. This vagueness may be attributed to Moscow's inability to impose its agenda on Damascus.

Perhaps what Moscow really wants is a "step after step" approach, meaning having the US and its allies come closer to Damascus, and not the current "Russian step" in return for "American step" approach.

How Israel’s Regional Neighbors See Its Upcoming Elections

Israeli right-wing activists supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gather for the Jewish holiday of Sukkot, the Feast of the Tabernacles, in a field outside Kibbutz Nir-Am by the Israel-Gaza border on September 27, 2026. (AFP)

22:45-27 September 2026 AD ـ 16 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

How Israel’s Regional Neighbors See Its Upcoming Elections

Israel's upcoming elections are being followed closely by its regional neighbors, who are aware that any outcome will have ramifications far beyond the country's borders.

In his Likud party's campaign launch this month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his refrain that he "has changed the face of the Middle East" and vowed to continue doing so.

He has been unapologetic about keeping Israeli troops in neighboring Lebanon and Syria, while his ministers tout plans to displace Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, creating a refugee crisis for Jordan and Egypt and making a future Palestinian state impossible.

Opinion polls show the October 27 elections are likely to be close. The bloc led by Netanyahu and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies are squaring off against that of his main opponent, centrist Gadi Eisenkot.

AFP correspondents around the region take a look at how different countries are following the contest:

- Jordan -

While Netanyahu has stopped short of formally annexing the West Bank, observers say unofficial annexation is creeping in, as his government -- the most right-wing in Israel's history -- approves an unprecedented number of settlements.

Government officials repeatedly call for the expulsion of over three million Palestinians across the Jordan River, posing "an existential threat" to the Hashemite kingdom, according to Oraib Rantawi, founder of Amman's Al-Quds Center for Political Studies.

At the UN on Tuesday, King Abdullah II said "the Israeli government's expansionist appetite is now a regional threat".

"In the medium and long term, Jordan and Israel are on a collision course," Rantawi said, as right-wing politicians try to push responsibility for "dealing with the Palestinian population" onto Amman.

Jordan signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, and "is maintaining a minimum level of political engagement" Rantawi said is unlikely to change, no matter the outcome.

- Egypt -

Israel's other neighbor, most often threatened by what Israeli ministers describe as "voluntary emigration", has kept a "cold peace" since it first recognized Israel in 1978.

Cairo maintains extensive security collaboration, but ties have been increasingly strained as Egypt says it has had to resist repeated efforts to force more than two million Palestinians into its territory.

The best-case scenario is "a government that is less ideologically driven and more focused on security, which could help lower the temperature around Gaza, even without changing the fundamental Israeli position," said former ambassador El-Sayed Shalaby.

Asked by AFP, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Egypt "will deal with any government that is coming," before blaming Netanyahu for obstructing the Trump ceasefire plan, which Egypt brokered.

- Lebanon -

Israel's attacks on and invasion of southern Lebanon have killed more than 4,300 people and left 329,000 displaced since March, while Beirut pursues gradual talks with Israel centered on the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said this month that Israel "is turning southern Lebanon, its people and their properties into a ballot box soaked in blood" ahead of the vote.

"We are not optimistic," a former Lebanese minister and diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.

"The style may change... perhaps Eisenkot has a less radical discourse, but on the ground, the policy will remain unchanged. It is the far right that remains in power."

In an interview with AFP, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said the elections were an internal matter.

"But the question we want to ask the Israeli people, the State of Israel and all future governments is the following: do they want stability, security and no wars on their border, or not?" he said.

- Syria -

Since the December 2024 ousting of longtime ruler Bashar al-Assad, Israel has launched hundreds of strikes into Syria, sent troops into a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights and carried out regular incursions.

"For Damascus, the stakes are not whether the Israeli elections will completely change the rules of the game, but whether they will produce a government that is less inclined toward escalation and more willing to listen to Washington," a Syrian diplomatic source told AFP.

"A more centrist government, or a right-wing government that does not revolve around Netanyahu... could be less inclined to make political capital out of escalation," and work towards gradual security understandings.

Features

From Jeddah to New York: Why Do Sudan's Truces Fail?

Members of the Quintet and Quad after their first joint meeting on Sudan. (African Union)

Kampala : Ahmed Younes

19:08-25 September 2026 AD ـ 14 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

Kampala : Ahmed Younes

19:08-25 September 2026 AD ـ 14 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

From Jeddah to New York: Why Do Sudan's Truces Fail?

Members of the Quintet and Quad after their first joint meeting on Sudan. (African Union)

Sudanese doctor "S" needed a truce to get out of a health center where she and her colleagues were trapped in the first days of the war. She took a long route from Nile Street, crossing the Fiteihab and Halfaya bridges, until she reached her family in Kober.

She said she found bullet holes in the walls of her bedroom. Her siblings were waiting for her so they could leave together. The family fled and remains displaced today.

A brief halt in fighting in May 2023 allowed S to escape, but it did not last long enough for her family to remain in their home. Since that brief truce, initiatives and agreements have followed, while the hardest question has remained: How can mediators bring the two sides to agree to a cessation of fighting that is implemented and sustained?

The question returned to the fore on Sept. 23, when the Quad and Quintet met together for the first time in New York, under the co-chairmanship of the African Union and the United States. Participants called for a humanitarian truce and an end to hostilities.

They agreed to coordinate efforts to protect civilians and prepare to monitor and verify the implementation of any agreement. But the meeting's statement announced no agreement with the army or the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and set no date for talks between them.

A worker repairs a damaged building in Khartoum on September 20, 2026 (Photo by Ebrahim HAMID / AFP)

The sticking point lies in the terms of the truce itself. According to Reuters, the army-led government accepted most of a US proposal for a 90-day truce but rejected a provision that would limit the RSF's withdrawal to specified areas.

It demanded that the RSF withdraw from all cities it had seized. Sudan's Foreign Ministry said this week that it rejected any negotiating process it believed would legitimize a reality imposed by the RSF through force. The RSF, meanwhile, welcomed the truce proposal, but the fighting continued.

Even when the two sides signed an agreement, it did not guarantee its implementation. In Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the army and the RSF signed a declaration committing them to protecting civilians on May 11, 2023. On May 20, they signed an agreement on a short ceasefire and humanitarian arrangements.

But the ceasefire did not hold. In June, the army suspended its participation in the talks, accusing the RSF of violating the agreement.

Other efforts faced different obstacles. In December 2023, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional organization involved in peace efforts in the Horn of Africa, announced that army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, had agreed to meet face to face under its auspices. IGAD renewed the invitation in January, but the meeting never took place.

In Manama, Bahrain, a document titled "Principles and Foundations for a Comprehensive Solution to the Sudanese Crisis" was initialed on Jan. 20, 2024, in the names of Shams al-Din Kabbashi for the army and Abdel Rahim Dagalo for the RSF, according to the published text. But the initialing was not followed by a final agreement or a sustained negotiating process. Dagalo accused Kabbashi of backing away from the document, while Kabbashi did not comment on the reasons for the process coming to a halt.

In August 2024, the absence of one of the warring sides prevented direct ceasefire talks in Switzerland, shifting the focus to facilitating the delivery of aid and protecting civilians.

Rosalind Marsden, a researcher at Chatham House, wrote in an analysis published by the institute on Sept. 18, 2024, that the main reason the August 2024 ceasefire talks in Switzerland failed was that both the army and the RSF continued to seek a military victory. Their continued hopes of making military gains were a major reason for the negotiations' failure to make progress, despite limited progress in delivering aid to Darfur.

In September 2025, the Quad proposed a roadmap beginning with a three-month humanitarian truce, during which aid would reach areas across Sudan, followed by a permanent ceasefire and a political transition.

But the Quad's roadmap remained a proposal by the mediators and did not become an agreement between the warring parties. The dispute over withdrawal in the latest US proposal shows that the two sides have yet to agree on the terms under which a new truce could be tested.

Researcher Ahmed Soliman says the multiplicity of mediation groups and weak coordination among them make it necessary to link ceasefire efforts to a Sudanese political process led by civilian forces.

Hubert Kinkoh, a researcher at Chatham House, argued in an analysis published by the institute on Feb. 13, 2026, that the multiplicity of mediation tracks on Sudan, along with the absence of clear leadership and effective coordination among them, had allowed the army and the RSF to resist making serious concessions.

The New York meeting may help address the fragmentation of mediation efforts. Its real value, however, will become clear if it can bring the warring parties to a clear agreement and establish a mechanism to monitor compliance and address violations.

A brief truce allowed S to reach her family, but the family was then forced to leave their home. The truce that displaced people and refugees are waiting for today would allow aid to reach them and mark the beginning of a lasting end to the fighting, making a safe return to their homes and communities possible.

Features

Trump's State Dinner for Xi to Feature Sea Bass and a Long List of Tech Titans

24 September 2026, US, Washington: US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife, Peng Liyuan, to the White House for a state dinner in Washington, DC. Photo: Joey Sussman/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

Asharq Al Awsat

07:47-25 September 2026 AD ـ 14 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

Asharq Al Awsat

07:47-25 September 2026 AD ـ 14 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1448 AH

Trump's State Dinner for Xi to Feature Sea Bass and a Long List of Tech Titans

A tech-heavy guest list, the fashion choices of those on it, who sits where, their body language throughout the night and what’s on the menu: these are the softer — often and glitzier — details of diplomacy.

Thursday's state dinner for China’s leader Xi Jinping featured a cavalcade of billionaires, Washington powerbrokers, business leaders and the type of festivities that excite President Donald Trump, who has a reputation for reveling in hosting parties, said The Associated Press.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signed autographs as he arrived at the White House. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang chose a tuxedo over his trademark black leather jacket. Bernard Arnault, the CEO of French luxury goods company LVMH, walked through black security fencing to get to the White House.

Trump, clad in a tuxedo, and first lady Melania Trump, in a tuxedo-style outfit with a large necktie bow, greeted Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, out in front of the White House.

Xi, in a black suit, and Peng, in a red gown, emerged from their limousine onto a red carpet at the North Portico, where they shook hands with the Trumps.

“Everyone wants to be there,” Trump said during this week's UN General Assembly session. “It's the hottest ticket in town.”

Xi and Trump face tensions over Taiwan, trade and artificial intelligence during business hours — even as an ongoing, First Amendment fight over press access at the White House has unfolded. But Trump publicly chose to focus on showing Xi his White House updates on Thursday afternoon, before attention quickly turned to the flashy details of the swanky meal honoring Xi and his wife in the White House East Room.

Asked on Monday night who'd be in attendance, the president responded, “sort of everybody,” adding, “I would say you have the entire tech world, the entire banking world and a lot more.”

The dinner was expected to showcase “the positive vibes surrounding the visit” and indicate that “the president is very focused on signaling warmth and a close personal connection with Xi,” said Edgard Kagan, senior adviser and chair in China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The first lady’s menu is being served on the red china service from Ronald Reagan’s presidency. It features a first course of yellow squash velouté with wild mushrooms, fresh herbs, crispy pancetta and drizzled scallion oil.

After that, guests will get sesame-crusted sea bass with braised baby bok choy, roasted garden eggplant and a sauce verte. Dessert is vanilla crémeux with sour cherry confit and walnut frangipane, as well as ice cream with honey from the White House.

Trump has already sought to one-up Xi after Beijing

The dinner comes after the president took the unusual step of personally greeting Xi and his wife on Wednesday as they arrived at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington. Normally, presidents wait for their state visit guests to arrive at the White House itself before offering a formal welcome.

During Thursday's arrival ceremony, Trump and Xi reviewed troops as trumpets blared, with the US president saying, “From the time of my first election in 2016, President Xi and I have forged a friendship.”

Thursday's dinner will include an abundance of technology industry titans, including Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, Google and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, OpenAI President and co-founder Greg Brockman, and Dell Technologies chairman and CEO Michael Dell.

During his own visit to Beijing in May, Xi hosted Trump for a state dinner that unfolded beneath grand chandeliers in the Great Hall of the People. That event included many tech luminaries who are likely to be at the White House this time, such as Tim Cook, formerly Apple's CEO, and Musk.

Trump has since begun referring to the White House ballroom he’s building as the “Great Hall of the United States,” to rival the place where he dined in China.

“This is a very large hall,” Trump recently said of the Great Hall of the People before adding, “But we’re gonna top it.”

Trump used to decry the pomp he now revels in

In 2015, as then-President Barack Obama was preparing to host Xi for a state visit, Trump — in the midst of his first presidential run — criticized all the hubbub.

“Just take them to McDonald’s and go back to the negotiating table,” Trump said then, during a rally in South Carolina. He later conceded on Fox News Channel that Xi might at least be worthy of getting “probably a double-size Big Mac.”

Xi visited Trump for the first time in 2017. But the White House said the Chinese wanted the meeting to take place at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, which is viewed as a more relaxed setting that might defuse some of the high expectations of a formal summit in Washington.

A dearth of pageantry didn't mean a lack of extraordinary moments, however, underscoring just how important it is for China's leader to dine with Trump.

Later recounting the incident to Fox News Channel, Trump said he sprung a surprise on Xi just after dinner, noting that the US was striking Syria as the pair was having “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you’ve ever seen, and President Xi was enjoying it.”

Trump said he told Xi that US forces had “just fired 59 missiles” and that China's president “was eating his cake. And he was silent.”

Syria's Return... 'Step after Step'?

Most Viewed

How Israel’s Regional Neighbors See Its Upcoming Elections

From Jeddah to New York: Why Do Sudan's Truces Fail?

Trump's State Dinner for Xi to Feature Sea Bass and a Long List of Tech Titans

لم تشترك بعد