Lebanon’s Economic Crises Affect Fertility Rates

 A pharmacy employee holds a box of medication in Beirut, Lebanon, May 28, 2021. (Reuters)
A pharmacy employee holds a box of medication in Beirut, Lebanon, May 28, 2021. (Reuters)
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Lebanon’s Economic Crises Affect Fertility Rates

 A pharmacy employee holds a box of medication in Beirut, Lebanon, May 28, 2021. (Reuters)
A pharmacy employee holds a box of medication in Beirut, Lebanon, May 28, 2021. (Reuters)

Lebanese mother, Hiyam, in her twenties, preferred to undergo an abortion rather than having a second child in a country torn apart by crises, as she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Despite what she described as a “rational” decision, she expressed her “deep sadness and fear of violating the Sharia.”

But she continued with a series of questions: “How will we secure milk, diapers, and medicines? How will we be able to afford the expenses of two children? And before all that, in which hospital will I deliver the baby and at what cost?”

While no official statistics indicate the number of abortions currently taking place in Lebanon, as such operations are usually kept secret, Hiyam said that the decision was not easy, and she always hoped that her little daughter would have a brother or sister.

“But a crime that's greater than abortion is to bring a helpless child into a country where we do not know from where the strikes will come,” she added.

Stressing that her doctor advised her not to resort to this option, Hiyam said: “We know more about our financial capabilities, and we can hardly secure milk and diapers for my young daughter... We refuse to be unfair with our two children!”

Lebanon has been rocked by a severe economic collapse since 2019, the worst in decades. Its repercussions did not exclude any aspect of the life of the Lebanese citizens, affecting vital needs of food, water, fuel, medicine and hospitalization.

As a result of this collapse, many Lebanese are reluctant to take the step of having children, fearing that this would increase their daily suffering amid the high prices of the needs of newborns on one hand and the severe shortage of medications and vaccines on the other.

The price of a box of infant formula increased from LBP 12,000 to LBP 100,000, while the price of diapers, according to quality, now ranges from LBP 150,000 to LBP 250,000. With the lifting of government subsidies, the prices of medicine and vaccinations for children, if found, have also soared.

Sabine, 36, who has been married for four years, told Asharq Al-Awsat that her dream of motherhood “may have evaporated with all the crises we are witnessing in Lebanon.”

She said that she got married in 2018, and she and her husband chose to postpone the step of having children for two years to be able to pay off the debts of the wedding ceremony and home furniture and also enjoy life before bearing a great responsibility.

Sabine and her husband are looking for a job in an Arab country or for emigration to a European country “to start a better life and a suitable environment for raising children.”

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Researcher at Information International Mohammad Shamseddine said that 92,957 childbirths were registered in Lebanon in 2018, compared to 86,584 in 2019. The number continued to decline in 2020 and reached 74,049.

Although the numbers for 2021 are not final yet, Shamseddine expects an additional decrease in the number of births in Lebanon, which he said will not exceed 60,000.

Several reasons led to this decline, he explained, including the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and the severe economic crisis.



Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
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Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he would meet former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime fell in Damascus. But what will Putin say to his former ally? And how might their first exchange unfold, given Russia’s role in helping Assad escape on a chaotic night?

The Kremlin, known for staging Putin’s meetings with precision, might opt to limit media coverage this time. Putin could be seen sitting at a small table with Assad, now on asylum

in Moscow, in a soundless scene—one that leaves little room for formal pleasantries.

Why has Putin announced plans to meet Assad? Is it to reprimand him? Many in Russia believe Assad’s stubbornness has hurt Moscow’s efforts, threatened its gains in Syria, and could eventually risk its key military presence there.

As details remain unclear, Russian experts are racing to analyze developments in Syria and outline scenarios for the next phase.

Some Russian experts have painted grim scenarios. A member of the prestigious Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy warned of potential risks, including a prolonged conflict with civil war elements, a humanitarian catastrophe with millions of refugees, escalating migration in Europe, and rising tensions among nations like Israel, the US, and Iran.

He also predicted a new wave of international terrorism that could reach far beyond the region.

Other experts echoed this pessimism. One posted an image of a Syrian dissident stepping on a statue of Assad’s father, warning that “this is just the beginning.” Another blamed the crisis on the “Obama curse,” citing the West’s interference, while a third shared a bleak analysis titled, “We Must Pray for Syria.”

So far, Russian media and think tanks have avoided any optimistic outlooks for Syria’s future.

Experts, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, believe Moscow may be preparing to handle one of three possible scenarios in Syria.

The first, most favorable for Russia’s interests, involves Moscow reaching an agreement with the new Syrian authorities to maintain its military presence for a limited period.

This could mean replacing the current 49-year agreements with a five-year deal to facilitate a gradual Russian withdrawal. Such an arrangement could help the new leadership in Syria manage Western pressure to cut ties with Moscow.

The second scenario envisions Russia giving up its airbase in Hmeimim while retaining a significant presence in Tartus. This would mirror agreements from 1972, which allowed Russian naval vessels to use the Tartus logistics center in the Mediterranean. This compromise would preserve Russia’s interests while reducing Western pressure on Damascus.

The third scenario involves a full Russian withdrawal from both bases, with Moscow later seeking agreements for shared use of air and sea ports. Such agreements, similar to those Russia has signed with other countries, are less likely to provoke Western opposition.

Regardless of the outcome, the Kremlin has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with the emerging situation in Syria.

Key questions remain, including how to curb Iran’s regional influence, manage Türkiye and Israel’s growing roles in Syria, and establish a new regional balance that secures Moscow’s minimum interests.