Lebanon’s Economic Crises Affect Fertility Rates

 A pharmacy employee holds a box of medication in Beirut, Lebanon, May 28, 2021. (Reuters)
A pharmacy employee holds a box of medication in Beirut, Lebanon, May 28, 2021. (Reuters)
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Lebanon’s Economic Crises Affect Fertility Rates

 A pharmacy employee holds a box of medication in Beirut, Lebanon, May 28, 2021. (Reuters)
A pharmacy employee holds a box of medication in Beirut, Lebanon, May 28, 2021. (Reuters)

Lebanese mother, Hiyam, in her twenties, preferred to undergo an abortion rather than having a second child in a country torn apart by crises, as she told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Despite what she described as a “rational” decision, she expressed her “deep sadness and fear of violating the Sharia.”

But she continued with a series of questions: “How will we secure milk, diapers, and medicines? How will we be able to afford the expenses of two children? And before all that, in which hospital will I deliver the baby and at what cost?”

While no official statistics indicate the number of abortions currently taking place in Lebanon, as such operations are usually kept secret, Hiyam said that the decision was not easy, and she always hoped that her little daughter would have a brother or sister.

“But a crime that's greater than abortion is to bring a helpless child into a country where we do not know from where the strikes will come,” she added.

Stressing that her doctor advised her not to resort to this option, Hiyam said: “We know more about our financial capabilities, and we can hardly secure milk and diapers for my young daughter... We refuse to be unfair with our two children!”

Lebanon has been rocked by a severe economic collapse since 2019, the worst in decades. Its repercussions did not exclude any aspect of the life of the Lebanese citizens, affecting vital needs of food, water, fuel, medicine and hospitalization.

As a result of this collapse, many Lebanese are reluctant to take the step of having children, fearing that this would increase their daily suffering amid the high prices of the needs of newborns on one hand and the severe shortage of medications and vaccines on the other.

The price of a box of infant formula increased from LBP 12,000 to LBP 100,000, while the price of diapers, according to quality, now ranges from LBP 150,000 to LBP 250,000. With the lifting of government subsidies, the prices of medicine and vaccinations for children, if found, have also soared.

Sabine, 36, who has been married for four years, told Asharq Al-Awsat that her dream of motherhood “may have evaporated with all the crises we are witnessing in Lebanon.”

She said that she got married in 2018, and she and her husband chose to postpone the step of having children for two years to be able to pay off the debts of the wedding ceremony and home furniture and also enjoy life before bearing a great responsibility.

Sabine and her husband are looking for a job in an Arab country or for emigration to a European country “to start a better life and a suitable environment for raising children.”

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Researcher at Information International Mohammad Shamseddine said that 92,957 childbirths were registered in Lebanon in 2018, compared to 86,584 in 2019. The number continued to decline in 2020 and reached 74,049.

Although the numbers for 2021 are not final yet, Shamseddine expects an additional decrease in the number of births in Lebanon, which he said will not exceed 60,000.

Several reasons led to this decline, he explained, including the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and the severe economic crisis.



Qaani’s Uncertain Fate: A New Angle in the Shadow War

Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
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Qaani’s Uncertain Fate: A New Angle in the Shadow War

Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)
Ismail Qaani whispers in the ear of IRGC Commander Hossein Salami (IRNA)

There has been recently a surge of speculation about Ismail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, with reports presenting conflicting information.

Some leaks suggest Qaani may have been injured in an Israeli attack abroad or is being investigated for alleged collaboration with Israel. Iranian officials have provided little information, leaving his whereabouts uncertain and raising questions about his well-being.

Timeline of Events

Qaani was last seen on September 29 at the Lebanese Hezbollah office in Tehran, where he was offering condolences after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

Five days later, during a eulogy for Nasrallah, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei spoke in Tehran, notably without Qaani and other leaders present.

On October 6, Tasnim news agency published photos of Khamenei presenting an award to Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Aerospace Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, again without Qaani in attendance.

On October 9, Iran hinted at Qaani’s fate, stating that Khamenei would soon honor him with the same award. Tasnim reported that Qaani is in “good health.”

By October 10, numerous reports indicated that Qaani might be under investigation, deepening the confusion surrounding his situation.

Speculation Grows Around Qaani’s Status

Since Qaani’s last public appearance, speculation about his fate has intensified, with three key theories emerging by October 10.

The first theory arose immediately after Nasrallah’s assassination, claiming Qaani was either injured or killed. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) quickly denied these claims.

On October 5, Israel struck a building in the Beirut suburbs, alleging it was targeting Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah's Executive Council chief. This led to speculation that Qaani was there and may have been harmed.

The IRGC took three days to deny these reports, with Deputy Commander Eiraj Masjedi confirming that Qaani was unharmed.

On October 10, military expert Babak Taghvaei posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Qaani was under investigation, with some reports claiming he suffered a heart attack “due to torture.”

In response, IRGC-affiliated news agencies Tasnim and Fars denied Qaani’s arrest, with Tasnim dismissing a report from “10 sources” and stating, “We can confidently say that 20 informed sources claim the ten sources are completely false.”

Confusion Surrounds Qaani's Status Amid Competing Narratives

Verifying leaks about Qaani’s status is challenging due to the IRGC’s complex media network, which shapes public opinion.

One theory suggests Tehran is shocked by the rapid loss of Hassan Nasrallah and Hezbollah’s leadership, leading them to believe significant intelligence breaches have occurred. As a result, they may be withholding information about Qaani’s location to protect him.

However, skepticism about Iran’s credibility has given rise to another theory: infighting within the IRGC may lead some factions to undermine Qaani’s image and distance themselves from him.

Doubts are also growing about Qaani’s ability to fill the void left by Qassem Soleimani, especially as tensions with Israel escalate and the conflict shifts to targeting Iranian-affiliated groups.

Another theory suggests that creating public speculation about Qaani’s fate could prompt Iranians to reveal his true status and location, particularly since he is reportedly on an Israeli target list.

Despite the uncertainty, Qaani’s fate won’t remain a secret for long. Iran may soon introduce new theories, especially if IRGC statements suggest that Khamenei will award Qaani the “Order of Fateh.”