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Russia Sponsors New Round of Talks between Damascus, Kurds

A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP)
A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP)
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Russia Sponsors New Round of Talks between Damascus, Kurds

A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP)
A Turkish and Russian patrol is seen near the town of Darbasiyah, Syria, Friday, Nov. 1, 2019. (AP)

Russia will sponsor in coming days a new round of dialogue between the Kurds and the Damascus regime.

Just days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with head of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), Ilham Ahmad.

Envoys of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Joe Biden have agreed during undisclosed talks in Geneva in recent months over the need to provide American "cover" and Russian "sponsorship" of the Kurdish-Syrian talks.

Deep divide

The Syrians and Kurds had held numerous rounds of dialogue between 2016 to 2019 that revealed the extent of the divide between the two sides.

Damascus refuses to include the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a separate unit in the army and has instead suggested that it be incorporated in the military. It is also demanding that the official national flag be flown throughout the country and recognition of Bashar Assad as Syria's president.

It rejects providing constitutional concessions to the Kurds or recognition of their autonomous administration. It is willing to agree to the local administrations and dedicating lessons to teach Kurdish at schools.

On the strategic resources in the region east of the Euphrates that are held by the Kurds, Damascus wants to have control over them, while agreeing to grant greater revenues from them to the region.

The Kurds are meanwhile hoping Russia will back their demands. Over the summer, the SDC and the People's Will Party signed in Moscow an agreement that Kurdish observers interpreted as recognition of the "unity of Syria and its people" and recognition that the autonomous administration as part of the central regime and that the SDF was part of the national Syrian army.

During a visit to Damascus in September, Lavrov expressed Russia's readiness to continue efforts to prepare the ground for "coexistence" among "all religious and ethnic groups in Syrian society."

He stressed that Russia was not a party in the document that was signed by the SDC and People's Will Party.

The Syrian foreign minister rejected the document, saying Damascus will not support any agreement that violates the Syrian constitution.

Damascus had also rejected a Russian draft of a constitution that stipulates the formation of an "association of regions" that includes the Kurds.

New round

Since the Putin-Biden meeting in June, their envoys to Syria have held three rounds of closed-door talks in Geneva.

Their main goal was to extend the international resolution on cross-border aid deliveries, which was achieved.

However, this platform and others have been used to call for the resumption of dialogue between Damascus and Qamishli.

The US has encouraged the Kurds to resume talks with the regime through Russian "sponsorship".

The new round of talks will focus on operational issues, such as the opening of the Al-Ya'rubiyah crossing under Syrian-Kurdish management, the delivery of humanitarian aid, and military coordination that would deter a new Turkish incursion.

They would also tackle various services and economic agreements.

On the political level, they would address the future of the autonomous administration and its ties with Damascus, the SDF and its role in the army, and the Kurdish national identity.

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Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
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Trump Carves Up World and International Order with It

Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP
Analysts say talks to end the war in Ukraine 'could resemble a new Yalta'. TASS/AFP

By casting doubt on the world order, Donald Trump risks dragging the globe back into an era where great powers impose their imperial will on the weak, analysts warn.
Russia wants Ukraine, China demands Taiwan and now the US president seems to be following suit, whether by coveting Canada as the "51st US state", insisting "we've got to have" Greenland or kicking Chinese interests out of the Panama Canal.
Where the United States once defended state sovereignty and international law, Trump's disregard for his neighbors' borders and expansionist ambitions mark a return to the days when the world was carved up into spheres of influence.
As recently as Wednesday, US defense secretary Pete Hegseth floated the idea of an American military base to secure the Panama Canal, a strategic waterway controlled by the United States until 1999 which Trump's administration has vowed to "take back".
Hegseth's comments came nearly 35 years after the United States invaded to topple Panama's dictator Manuel Noriega, harking back to when successive US administrations viewed Latin America as "America's backyard".
"The Trump 2.0 administration is largely accepting the familiar great power claim to 'spheres of influence'," Professor Gregory O. Hall, of the University of Kentucky, told AFP.
Indian diplomat Jawed Ashraf warned that by "speaking openly about Greenland, Canada, Panama Canal", "the new administration may have accelerated the slide" towards a return to great power domination.
The empire strikes back
Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has posed as the custodian of an international order "based on the ideas of countries' equal sovereignty and territorial integrity", said American researcher Jeffrey Mankoff, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
But those principles run counter to how Russia and China see their own interests, according to the author of "Empires of Eurasia: how imperial legacies shape international security".
Both countries are "themselves products of empires and continue to function in many ways like empires", seeking to throw their weight around for reasons of prestige, power or protection, Mankoff said.
That is not to say that spheres of influence disappeared with the fall of the Soviet Union.
"Even then, the US and Western allies sought to expand their sphere of influence eastward into what was the erstwhile Soviet and then the Russian sphere of influence," Ashraf, a former adviser to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pointed out.
But until the return of Trump, the United States exploited its position as the "policeman of the world" to ward off imperial ambitions while pushing its own interests.
Now that Trump appears to view the cost of upholding a rules-based order challenged by its rivals and increasingly criticized in the rest of the world as too expensive, the United States is contributing to the cracks in the facade with Russia and China's help.
And as the international order weakens, the great powers "see opportunities to once again behave in an imperial way", said Mankoff.
Yalta yet again
As at Yalta in 1945, when the United States and the Soviet Union divided the post-World War II world between their respective zones of influence, Washington, Beijing and Moscow could again agree to carve up the globe anew.
"Improved ties between the United States and its great-power rivals, Russia and China, appear to be imminent," Derek Grossman, of the United States' RAND Corporation think tank, said in March.
But the haggling over who gets dominance over what and where would likely come at the expense of other countries.
"Today's major powers are seeking to negotiate a new global order primarily with each other," Monica Toft, professor of international relations at Tufts University in Massachusets wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs.
"In a scenario in which the United States, China, and Russia all agree that they have a vital interest in avoiding a nuclear war, acknowledging each other's spheres of influence can serve as a mechanism to deter escalation," Toft said.
If that were the case, "negotiations to end the war in Ukraine could resemble a new Yalta", she added.
Yet the thought of a Ukraine deemed by Trump to be in Russia's sphere is likely to send shivers down the spines of many in Europe -- not least in Ukraine itself.
"The success or failure of Ukraine to defend its sovereignty is going to have a lot of impact in terms of what the global system ends up looking like a generation from now," Mankoff said.
"So it's important for countries that have the ability and want to uphold an anti-imperial version of international order to assist Ukraine," he added -- pointing the finger at Europe.
"In Trump's world, Europeans need their own sphere of influence," said Rym Momtaz, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
"For former imperial powers, Europeans seem strangely on the backfoot as nineteenth century spheres of influence come back as the organising principle of global affairs."