Oil Slips Over 1% on Bets that Crude Supply Growth Will Exceed Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
TT

Oil Slips Over 1% on Bets that Crude Supply Growth Will Exceed Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices fell for a third day straight on Wednesday on growing expectations that supply growth will outpace demand growth next year, even though the Omicron coronavirus variant is not seen curbing mobility as sharply as earlier COVID-19 variants.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.05, or 1.5%, to $69.68 a barrel by 0734 GMT, after losing 56 cents in the previous session.

Brent crude futures fell 91 cents, or 1.2%, to $72.79 a barrel, after losing 69 cents on Tuesday.

Brent's prompt monthly spread was unchanged at 7 cents after flipping into contango briefly on Tuesday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday said a surge in COVID-19 cases with the emergence of the Omicron variant will dent global demand for oil at the same time that crude output is set to increase, especially in the United States, with supply set to exceed demand through at least the end of next year.

In contrast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) on Monday raised its world oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022.

"The IEA's bearish view on the market was in stark contrast to OPEC's more positive view when it released its monthly outlook earlier this week. The divide suggests volatility is likely to remain high in the short term," ANZ commodity analysts said in a note.

Energy consultancy FGE said it has a more optimistic outlook than the IEA as the consultancy expects a smaller surplus of 400,000 barrels per day, based on a comparatively lower demand risk from Omicron, against IEA's forecast of 1.7 million bpd in the first quarter.

Also weighing on the market is a firming US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for other countries, Reuters reported. Markets are awaiting the outcome of a key US Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday for signs of when the central bank may raise interest rates.

In another bearish indicator, industry data showed that US crude inventories last week did not decline as much as expected. American Petroleum Institute data showed US crude stocks fell by 815,000 barrels in the week ended Dec. 10, according to market sources, compared with a 2.1 million barrel drop that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected.

However, distillate stocks fell by 1 million barrels, compared with analysts' forecasts for an increase of 700,000 barrels, and gasoline stocks rose by 426,000 barrels, which was a smaller build than expected. Weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.



Bank of England Cuts Main Interest Rate by a Quarter-point to 4.75%

Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, The Bank of England's Head of Media and Stakeholder Engagement Katie Martin and Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking, Dave Ramsden hold the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on November 7, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS
Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, The Bank of England's Head of Media and Stakeholder Engagement Katie Martin and Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking, Dave Ramsden hold the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on November 7, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS
TT

Bank of England Cuts Main Interest Rate by a Quarter-point to 4.75%

Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, The Bank of England's Head of Media and Stakeholder Engagement Katie Martin and Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking, Dave Ramsden hold the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on November 7, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS
Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, The Bank of England's Head of Media and Stakeholder Engagement Katie Martin and Deputy Governor, Markets and Banking, Dave Ramsden hold the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on November 7, 2024. HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool via REUTERS

The Bank of England cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Thursday after inflation across the UK fell below its target rate of 2%.
The bank said its rate-setting panel lowered the benchmark rate to 4.75% — its second cut in three months — though its governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that interest rates would not be falling too fast over coming months.
“We need to make sure inflation stays close to target, so we can’t cut interest rates too quickly or by too much,” he said. “But if the economy evolves as we expect it’s likely that interest rates will continue to fall gradually from here.”
In the year to September, UK inflation stood at 1.7%, its lowest level since April 2021 and below the central bank’s target rate of 2%, The Associated Press reported.
Central banks worldwide dramatically increased borrowing costs from near zero during the coronavirus pandemic when prices started to shoot up, first as a result of supply chain issues built up and then because of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which pushed up energy costs.
As inflation rates have recently fallen from multi-decade highs, the central banks have started cutting interest rates.
Economists have warned that worries about the future path of prices following last week's tax-raising budget from the new Labour government and the economic impact of US President-elect Donald Trump may limit the number of cuts next year.
The decision comes a week after Treasury chief Rachel Reeves announced around 70 billion pounds ($90 billion) of extra spending, funded through increased business taxes and borrowing. Economists think that the splurge, coupled with the prospect of businesses cushioning the tax hikes by raising prices, could lead to higher inflation next year.
The rate decision also comes a day after Trump was declared the winner of the US presidential election. He has indicated that he will cut taxes and introduce tariffs on certain imported goods when he returns to the White House in January. Both policies have the potential to be inflationary both in the US and globally, thereby prompting Bank of England policymakers to keep interest rates higher than initially planned.