Oil Slips Over 1% on Bets that Crude Supply Growth Will Exceed Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
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Oil Slips Over 1% on Bets that Crude Supply Growth Will Exceed Demand

The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo
The sun is seen behind a crude oil pump jack in the Permian Basin in Loving County, Texas, US, November 22, 2019. REUTERS/Angus Mordant/File Photo

Oil prices fell for a third day straight on Wednesday on growing expectations that supply growth will outpace demand growth next year, even though the Omicron coronavirus variant is not seen curbing mobility as sharply as earlier COVID-19 variants.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.05, or 1.5%, to $69.68 a barrel by 0734 GMT, after losing 56 cents in the previous session.

Brent crude futures fell 91 cents, or 1.2%, to $72.79 a barrel, after losing 69 cents on Tuesday.

Brent's prompt monthly spread was unchanged at 7 cents after flipping into contango briefly on Tuesday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday said a surge in COVID-19 cases with the emergence of the Omicron variant will dent global demand for oil at the same time that crude output is set to increase, especially in the United States, with supply set to exceed demand through at least the end of next year.

In contrast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) on Monday raised its world oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022.

"The IEA's bearish view on the market was in stark contrast to OPEC's more positive view when it released its monthly outlook earlier this week. The divide suggests volatility is likely to remain high in the short term," ANZ commodity analysts said in a note.

Energy consultancy FGE said it has a more optimistic outlook than the IEA as the consultancy expects a smaller surplus of 400,000 barrels per day, based on a comparatively lower demand risk from Omicron, against IEA's forecast of 1.7 million bpd in the first quarter.

Also weighing on the market is a firming US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for other countries, Reuters reported. Markets are awaiting the outcome of a key US Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday for signs of when the central bank may raise interest rates.

In another bearish indicator, industry data showed that US crude inventories last week did not decline as much as expected. American Petroleum Institute data showed US crude stocks fell by 815,000 barrels in the week ended Dec. 10, according to market sources, compared with a 2.1 million barrel drop that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected.

However, distillate stocks fell by 1 million barrels, compared with analysts' forecasts for an increase of 700,000 barrels, and gasoline stocks rose by 426,000 barrels, which was a smaller build than expected. Weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.



Turkish Annual Inflation Falls More Than Expected to 44.38%

A shopkeeper uses his mobile phone as he waits for customers at a popular middle-class shopping district in Istanbul, Türkiye March 4, 2024. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File photo
A shopkeeper uses his mobile phone as he waits for customers at a popular middle-class shopping district in Istanbul, Türkiye March 4, 2024. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File photo
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Turkish Annual Inflation Falls More Than Expected to 44.38%

A shopkeeper uses his mobile phone as he waits for customers at a popular middle-class shopping district in Istanbul, Türkiye March 4, 2024. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File photo
A shopkeeper uses his mobile phone as he waits for customers at a popular middle-class shopping district in Istanbul, Türkiye March 4, 2024. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/File photo

Turkish annual consumer price inflation fell more than expected to 44.38% in December, official data showed on Friday, with education, housing and restaurant prices leading the rise.

Month on month, inflation was 1.03%, the Turkish Statistical Institute said, compared with 2.24% in November. Annual consumer price inflation (CPI) was 47.09% in November.

Furniture prices rose 2.78% from the previous month, data showed, while telecoms-related prices gained by 1.82%.

In a Reuters poll, the annual inflation rate was expected to fall to 45.2%, with the monthly figure seen at 1.61%, owing to easing food price inflation and a limited rise in energy prices.

The latest inflation print was close to the central bank's midpoint prediction of 44% for the end of 2024.

The bank, having kept its main interest rate steady at 50% since March, launched an easing cycle last week, cutting the policy rate by 250 basis points to 47.5%.

The bank said it will set policy "prudently" meeting by meeting with a focus on the inflation outlook while responding to any expected "significant and persistent deterioration".

The Turkish lira was little changed after the data at 35.3850 to the dollar, hovering around the record lows.

The domestic producer price index was up 0.4% month on month in December for an annual rise of 28.52%, the data showed.